Lanny J. Davis
Former special counsel to President Clinton, and supporter of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign
After the votes are in from Puerto Rico tomorrow and South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton will be able to make a facts-based case that they represent a significant majority of grass-roots Democrats. Chances are Sens. Obama and Clinton will virtually split the more than 4,400 delegates—including Florida and Michigan—elected by more than 34 million people over the past five months.
Sen. Clinton has already won the most votes, but there is controversy over including the over 300,000 votes from Michigan, since Sen. Obama was not on the ballot (by his own choice). But if Sen. Clinton wins a substantial victory in Puerto Rico tomorrow—with an expected record turnout exceeding two million voters—she could well end up with more popular votes than Sen. Obama, even if Michigan’s primary votes are excluded.
Worst case, she could come out with a 2% deficit in elected pledged delegates. But that gap can be made up, if most of the remaining 200 or so unpledged superdelegates decide to support Sen. Clinton as the strongest candidate against John McCain—or if others committed to Sen. Obama decide to change their minds for the same reason. A number of superdelegates previously committed to Sen. Clinton later announced support for Sen. Obama, so it’s certainly possible that, when confronted with growing evidence that Sen. Clinton is stronger than Sen. McCain, they might switch back.
The final argument for Hillary comes down to three points—with points one and two leading to the third.
Lanny J. Davis
Friend and supporter of Senator Clinton and fundraiser for her presidential campaign
It's bad enough that the charge of "playing the race" card against Senator and President Clinton is utterly and demonstrably false.
But so many African Americans have come to believe this bogus charge that Senator Clinton's favorable opinions in the black community have dropped significantly and many are telling reporters they won't support Senator Clinton in the general election if she wins the nomination.
The false perception that Senator and President Clinton interjected race into the campaign for political purposes is a direct result of distorted reporting by most of the media covering the race. Let's look at the facts behind the four incidents that, in a space of 1-2 months, led to converting the Big Lie into a perceived truth by so many Democrats, black and white alike:
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Let's forget about the spin on all sides and not use any adjectives to modify the following 10 Facts that should not be in dispute:
1. Hillary Clinton won by 10%, 220,000 votes, despite after most of the polls in the last several weeks on RealClearPolitics, including its RCP all-poll average, showed her ahead by single digits and dropping. The exit polls showed her winning by +5. (It's easy to forget that she won if you listen to the Obama spinners last night and today. Believe it or not, Pennsylvania's Rep. Murphy, a freshman congressman who supported Barack Obama, actually said last night on Larry King that Senator Obama did so well in losing to Senator Clinton yesterday that he has a "wind at his back." I am not kidding.
2. Senator Obama tried hard to win the state, campaigned intensely throughout the state for most of the last six weeks - and was trying to win, not just lose a narrow margin.
3. He spent $11 million on media - about three times more than Senator Clinton.
4. Most of his ads were personal negative attack ads against Senator Clinton, meaning attacks on her character and integrity.
5. There were no personal attack ads run by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania
Lanny J. Davis
Friend of Senator Hillary Clinton, and fundraiser for her presidential campaign
Two Questions for the Obama Spin Machine on Pennsylvania Primary Day:
1. Why downplay Obama's chances to win Pennsylvania?
2. Why Is Obama is running even (actually losing 48%-46%) in.... get ready.....MASSACHUSETTS (!!!) (Senator Clinton Is Plus 15 Percent Over McCain in Same Poll)
To all readers of my blogs – those who agree, those who don't, even those who just delete:
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The latest Gallup National Democratic Tracking Poll shows a 9 point drop by Senator Barack Obama in about a week. Will the pundits and media analyze why?
Here are the specifics: In the three-day ongoing Gallup Poll of 1,252 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters, from Thursday-Saturday April 17-19, Senator Obama leads by 47% to 45%. Because that 2-point edge is within the 3% margin of error, it means Hillary Clinton is now in a statistical head heat with Barack Obama.
This represents a dramatic drop by Senator Obama among Democrats and independent leaners of about 9% in less than a week - a drop that Gallup says began just before the recent ABC debate, and that continued and has leveled off as of Saturday.
It's also worth noting that as of Friday night, April 18, the tracking poll showed Senator Clinton with a 1% lead over Senator Obama, 46% to 45% over three days of calling between April 16-18).
Robert Strauss: Where are you when we need you the most?
The one and only Great Robert Strauss, former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee in the 1970s, Clark Clifford in the 1950s and 1960s, emerged as the senior Democratic Party leader and peace maker in the 1980s and 90s, and also, a trusted advisor of both Republican and Democratic presidents.
Now, God bless him, Bob Strauss is in well-deserved semi-retirement and I would guess, respectfully, he is at an age where he wouldn't look forward to mediating as solution to the difficult dilemma faced by the Democratic Party over the Michigan and Florida convention delegates...