Reporter's Note: I write a letter to President Obama every day.  He has not complained, which is sort of odd when you think about it.

Dear Mr. President,

Have you had a lot of experience with hurricanes? I have. Big ones, little ones, day time, night time. I have great sympathy for people whose homes are struck, but I also find these big storms fascinating, especially when you are in position for the eye to pass right over you.

One minute, the heavens are dark and roaring. The next, the winds fade, the rains stop, and for a few, glorious moments the sky is blue. It is tempting at such times to think the worst is past. Then the back half of the hurricane comes tearing over you.

I mention it because... well, it's interesting... and also because you have been holding your own in this re-election bid. You generally come out slightly ahead in most polls. You're raising a decent amount of money. It might be tempting, with Romney struggling to gain any real traction, to think the worst winds have passed; like you can count on the race to sail on pretty much as it has, giving you a narrow, but real victory.

Here is my advice: beware the back side of the storm. The Romney team has clearly kept a lot of their campaign cash in reserve, and when they start unleashing it over the next two months, I think you are in for a buffeting... even if it is the GOP convention that gets rained on.

Call if you have a moment. Flying back to DC from New York tonight, so I'll be up late.

Regards,
Tom