A year from election, how does Obama measure up?
November 6th, 2011
04:00 PM ET

A year from election, how does Obama measure up?

Editor's note: John Avlon is a CNN contributor and senior political columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is the author of "Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe Is Hijacking America."

(CNN) - Is President Barack Obama running against the GOP or the GDP?

In exactly one year - November 6, 2012 - we'll be lining up at polling places to cast our votes for the next president. How much of that decision will be determined by economic data and poll numbers?

Some of the smartest political pros believe you can gauge a president's chances of re-election by looking at just a couple of key indicators - job approval, unemployment and growth in gross domestic product. Plug in the data and you get the election outcome - pure, unsentimental and simple.

To test this theory, I compared Obama's standing right now with those of recent past presidents one year before the re-election vote. Here's what I found:

There is no reason for overconfidence at Obama election headquarters - the man is presiding over a historically bad economy. But his popularity numbers could be worse, and a lot can change in a year. The most important factor is the momentum heading into Election Day - and yes, the opponent matters.


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Filed under: 2012 Election • Opinion • President Barack Obama
soundoff (2 Responses)
  1. Judy Rial

    First of all I love you and your mother. 2nd of all I think President Obama has done a great job with what he was given. I do not think the republicans want him to do what is best for the county, so they can get in office. I think that President Obama has strong values, has made us a more respectable nation to the world and is one of the most intelligent presidents that we have had. I think that he will do what is best for the county within in his power. I dont think that anyone can do much if they do not have a congress who will work together for the better of the american people instead of special interests. I am a 43 year old from a largely democratic state. I live in NC now. I am fortunate to have a great job, but worry about my future. I am not in good health and do not know how much longer I can work. I will not be a fortunate as my mother and father when I get old because I will not have the benefits that they do because my father was a retired union coal miner. He was a diehard democrat and I know he would still be if he was living because he was not a closed minded as some of my friends in WV..My mother is 82 years old and has great health care and gets about 2400.00 a month to live on.. That is all anyone normal working person could ask for. I hope the american dream will stay alive. I love my country and always will, but I am ashamed of our congress now. They need to be fired if they are caught serving anyone but the people. I am glad the american people are fed up. I have been for a long time.
    Diehard Democrat
    WV coal miners daughter.

    November 7, 2011 at 2:08 am |
  2. Tammy from Tenn.

    Obama to me has done a great job. The reps have slowed down all the progress and change that USA needs. So, stop you reps crying, your greeding ways and ask yourself would Jesus let the USA fall. You reps are so big on family. I would hate and be ashame to be your daughter.

    November 6, 2011 at 7:45 pm |