Dear President Obama #269: The Dow – hardly average now

Reporter's Note: President Obama has made a lot of trips around the country since taking office. I keep hoping he’ll send at least a postcard in return for all these letters I’m writing. Maybe a nice woodland scene with a woodchuck, and a lovely “Visit Beautiful Pennsylvania” inscribed alongside. That would be nice.

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Tom Foreman | BIO
AC360° Correspondent

Dear Mr. President,

Congratulations! The Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally crawled back above 10,000, closing there for the first time in more than a year, and I couldn’t be happier! Well, that’s not entirely true. I guess I could be happier if I truly understood what it meant. In candor, I long ago lost my confidence in the market as a clear indicator of what is happening in the economy, but the legions of winged monkeys we call financial gurus say this is positive news, so I won’t throw water on the witch. I’ll just join in the party.

I spend a lot of time keeping an eye on a wide range of economic indicators, and they are still offering a very mixed picture of what is going on. Some things seem to have bottomed out, or may be moving slightly up again, like housing. Some things still seem bad and getting worse, like jobs. And some things, like the market seem to be getting better, then worse, then better, and on and on it goes.

The numbers on all these fronts are, frankly, far too daunting for a mere mortal to sort out. But the Dow’s big win matters anyway; not because it will affect everyone (because it won’t,) not because we all hold stock in companies that will be caught up in some new market wave (because we don’t,) but because it offers a little hope in a year that has seen precious little of it. And here’s the peculiar part: I’m not talking about hope for normal voters. I’m actually talking about hope for all your big political pals, and those titans of industry with whom you rub elbows.

I’ve become convinced over the years, that for as much as big shots like to pretend that they base their decisions on reports, studies, facts, and learned opinions, they actually make their choices like most of us do: On a gut feeling. If they “think” your programs are working and the economy is getting better, they are more likely to get behind it, and that in turn will fulfill the prophecy. And these folks see the Dow as the Magic 8-Ball of financial trends.

So keep that in mind as you speak out on the economy in coming weeks, remember that the numbers matter and can’t be denied; but the general impression may have more impact., and whether the Dow stays above 10,000 matters less than the idea that it appears to be moving in the right direction. Call if you can. Always happy to talk.

Regards,

Tom

Follow Tom on Twitter @tomforemancnn.

Find more of the Foreman Letters here.