Here's why Republicans have changed their minds about Democrats
[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/05/02/art.obamaclintonphilly.jpg%5D
John King
CNN Chief National Correspondent
Politics is a business of numbers, and the numbers still favor Barack Obama. But they are changing in ways that give Hillary Clinton some hope, and have dramatically changed how Republicans look at the presidential election.
In a world of so many polls and so many findings within those polls, a few stand out:
-Six in 10 Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Jeremiah Wright, Senator Obama’s former pastor. (This from the latest CNN Opinion Research Corporation survey.)
-Nearly four in 10 Americans (38 percent) have an unfavorable opinion of Senator Obama in the latest CNN polling – up 10 points from the beginning of the year.
-Half of Americans think a McCain presidency would bring policies different from the Bush Administration's.
-And this from a new Pew Research Center national survey: Senator Clinton’s lead among whites who did not attend college has increased from 10 points in March to 40 points now.
In his analysis of the new Pew data, research director Andrew Kohut writes, “Fewer Democrats ascribe positive qualities to Obama than did so a month ago, with white working-class Democrats, in particular, expressing more skeptical views of the Illinois senator. Since late February, his unfavorable rating has risen six points among all Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. At the same time, Clinton’s unfavorable rating among Democratic voters also has increased by seven points.”
Translation: The Wright controversy is hurting Obama most but Clinton also, at the same moment that John McCain is burnishing his brand as a different kind of Republican. The overall fundamentals still heavily favor the Democrats, but the Wright controversy is a source of significant Democratic angst.
In the words of Republican pollster Whit Ayres: “Blue-collar white voters are this year's soccer moms.”
Ayres says in recent days, “We've been doing a lot of focus groups with blue-collar whites in swing states. They're open to voting for Hillary Clinton because they think they did better economically in the Clinton administration than they have in the current administration. But there's no way on God's green earth they're going to vote for Barack Obama. They will vote for John McCain instead. So reaching out to those people we used to call Reagan Democrats is a very smart strategy for John McCain.”
Now Ayres is a Republican with a bias, and Obama has time to repair the damage should he emerge as the Democratic nominee.
But the remarks of many Democrats privately are not that far off from what Ayres says publicly about his findings from recent focus groups:
“Jeremiah Wright is not going away. There are an awful low of people, when you just ask, "What do you think of when you think of Barack Obama?" who bring up Jeremiah Wright's name. They bring up the anti-Americanism. They wonder why it took him so long to separate himself from him. Jeremiah Wright is an albatross around Barack Obama's neck that he's going to have to carry all the way to the election.”
Asked about his research, Ayres describes his recent focus groups as “blue-collar white voters. Democrats and Republicans. More Republican than Democrat but they cross party lines.”
If he is right about this next part, it would explain why many Republicans who began the year believing that Clinton had high negatives and that Obama’s inspirational message of hope and change would be harder to beat, are now suggesting they would rather run against Obama because of the Electoral College map that dictates presidential campaign strategy.
Says Ayres of white blue collar voters: “They've picked up on a lot of this stuff. And they, they don't believe that Barack Obama has the same cultural outlook on the world and on America that they do. They know that and they don't like it.”
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Filed under: Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • John King • Raw Politics |
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As an Independent I say "here we go again." First, we elected George Bush who has been a disappointment...and now we are going to elect Obama who will be another disappointment. What should we expect from an electorate that cannot speak or write the Kings English, say the Pledge or identify China on the globe (despite masters degrees in some cases). Talk about politicians with bad judgement...look at the ill informed voters who have elected them.
I am sick and tired of everyone talking about Barack Obama's lack of experience. Neither Hilary Clinton nor John McCain has ever been President of the United States either. It's one thing being a US Senator (and a First Lady), but a totally different thing being President of the United States. It will be a big adjustment for any first time President. At least Obama seems to have the integrity and intelligence to pull it off. It definitely won't be business as usual in the White House.
It is interesting, it would seem that it would be the Republicans who would be touting the gas tax laxative intiative. But as the state of Illinois learned in 2002 when it eliminated the tax for 6 months it does not work. This is not economists talking, it is the people of Illinois. Within 4 weeks of the 5% reduction, prices rose 2%. And when the tax was reimposed, the price of gas rose another 4% above that. The total gas price increase: 6%. That is saving the average worker money.
Go Clinton, continue to distort and pander.......
Hillary spoke last night to the people or should I say spoke down to the people while Barack had a conversation that treated everyone as equals. He get’s it.
America will be a better, safer and more united country when Barack Obama is finally sworn in as President. The people will finally get their country back from ruthless, intimidated and selfish politicians.
Ask yourself WHY do the Republicans want to run against Hillary Clinton and not Barack Obama;
And don't forget that when the Clintons were in the White House they lost control of the House, Senate, and Governorship. The Rep see Hillary as their ticket to overtake these seats again.
Maybe now we can see just how divided our country is! We should vote for someone we can trust, someone who will tell us the truth, even if it isn't what we want to hear. Maybe we've been lied to so much it doesn’t matter any more, that scares me.
I'd like to know why there is so much coverage of Obama and Rev. Wright but we haven't heard anything about McCain and his ties to John Hagee. Hagee's comments are more divisive and hateful than Wright's, and yet McCain has welcomed his endorsement. The fact that this has been ignored by the press only proves the media has a right wing bias.
all the polling should done away with, there needs to be a universal poll of the entire u.s.
In my previous post:
" ... the liberalism of whites in western red states."
We're talking white Democrats here, obviously.
Ken wrote:
"INDIANAPOLIS, etc."
Which is 25% black, so BO should do well there?
It depends on how many whites in Indy are Democrats.
My native NYC is about 25% black, and Clinton won handily here.
"Obama victories in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6 could help him regain momentum in his nomination fight against Hillary Rodham Clinton."
BO winning NC is a foregone conclusion. However, only a victory of 12 percent or more will help him. A single-digit margin will indicate a demographic shift towards Clinton, with BO's electability in serious doubt.
Patt wrote:
"If Hillary is getting the majority of votes from the “Democratic base,” why is Barack Obama ahead?"
I'm not sure what you mean by “Democratic base.”
He's ahead because of (1) the concentration of black vote-rich states early in the primary, which gave him "momentum," and (2) the liberalism of whites in western red states. Clinton's historical baggage also helped, but not so much anymore, apparently.
John
Thanks for the poll numbers; they are interesting and some are even surprising. When the primary process began I was quite enthusiastic about the candidates on both sides of the aisle and looked forward to having a good choice to vote on in November. Now I'm weary of all the politicking and discouraged that the race has once again become more of the same. I've been a life long Independent that generally voted Democratic but now I'm leaning toward McCain – he does seem different from Bush and he ran his primary campaign with a dignity and respect that i have rarely seen in politics. That plus his many years of experience in the Senate now make him the more attractive candidate for me.
The Democrats have cause to worry – either candidate they have out there now is going to lose them a substantial number of votes if he or she gets the nomination. Again it appears that the Democrats will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Annie Kate
Birmingham AL
If Hillary is getting the majority ovfvotes from the " Democratic base ", why is Barack Obama ahead?
All Democrats: INDIANAPOLIS – Early voting in Indiana could offer some encouragement to presidential hopeful Barack Obama, who needs a victory in its upcoming primary after a tough few weeks on the campaign trail.
Obama victories in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6 could help him regain momentum in his nomination fight against Hillary Rodham Clinton. Obama has been on the defensive because of comments by his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, and his own comments about people in small towns growing bitter.
If the voting public buys into the Clinton "fear tactics" about Obama and his preacher ,then they deserve what they get.The Clintons have befriended and had dealings with this man as well,when it served their own political purposes.What do voters think? Obama is going to unleash genocide on white people if elected? Maybe he is some sort of Hammas undercover agent? Its laughable to watch this continually play on in your political process.It makes the voters look less than intelligent,almost sheep like.For the Clinton campaign to play the fear card show great contempt for the voting public.I guess there is never going to be any getting away from"politics as usual".
Well if Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham et al with their Operation Chaos manage to inflate Clinton's vote in North Carolina as they did in Texas, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania of all places – in spite of the fact that it was a `closed` primary – and if you people at CNN continue to ignore it – maybe the Republicans will actually end up having chosen the Democratic nominee.
But if you bothered to do some real investigative journalism, you would in fact confirm that so many African Americans will stay home at the general (go and read all the blogs if you don't believe it) together with all decent people who absolutely cringed when Clinton talked about obliterating an entire nation – reraising the spectre of Bush/Cheney style US foreign politicking – and maybe, just maybe, some of you will actually feel as low as Obama supporters now do seeing what you're all making of this primary spectacle.
were are all the blue collar white worker whose name has been drag down the mud by hillary and others as racist and they cant vote for a black man?hope they come out and straighten up there name
Barrack "The Fraud" Obama vs Hillary "The Fighter" Clinton
Go Hillary!!! Fight for Florida and Michigan
If they do not enfranchise these voters run as an independant with Ron Paul on your ticket
Thank you very much John for reporting this important piece of information. I only wish that this information came out earlier this year.
Obama has been running a campaign slogan that he has the best "judgment" out of all of the candidates. This Rev. Wright issue has highlighted and underscored the notion that Obama's judgment is in fact flawed since he should have disconnected himself completely from the Reverend long before he ran for the Democratic Nomination.
If Sen Obama wins the nomination, I will vote Republican for the 1st time in my life. All I've heard is Change! Well, what are you going to change, how do you propose to do it, how will you pay for it, and don't forget that pesky Congress you'll have to deal with. I see no foreign policy experience and very little domestic experience. Not exactly what the country needs right now. But don't dare question his judgement or ask for specific, concise answers...makes you a racist. Then again, why should I bother...I'm one of those "typical white folks" who was raised in a home with guns, worked and paid taxes since high school, raised a family, etc. etc. Is a conservative Democrat an oxymoron....am I just warped.....
Okay, where's the magic map when you need it. Poll A breaks down like this, Poll B like this.....
You can twist and turn polls anyway you want to get your perspective across.
I wonder if there was a poll done on any of the Super Tuesday states.
I'm curious if their is a changing climate in the states Obama has already won.
Pick two republicans. One will want Hillary and one will want Obama.
Anyone who thinks Wright is over should pay more attention to the sensationalism America loves so much. Miley Cyrus made CNN for crying out loud. Be above all the 'side issues' all you want but realize the 'average American' isn't. Millions are made daily on 'side issue' journalism. It's selling to someone.
I guess observing the fact as seen on CNN that the Republican party with media help is playing a self serving role in influencing the Democratic primary gets your post held by the moderator. Feeding the division is ok. This would be expected on Fox but this is CNN. That should be a point of discussion.
Larry wrote:
"Surely african-americans are as diverse as white-americans in their voting habits."
90% are voting BO. Democrats typically get 85-90% of the black vote.
Diverse?
Ayres on blue-collar whites:
"But there’s no way on God’s green earth they’re going to vote for Barack Obama."
That's why he's not going to be President.
And if he can't beat Clinton by double digits in NC on Tuesday, I seriously doubt he’ll be the nominee, either.
We had a great political discussion during my dinner party last Fri. night (don,t worry John-I Tivoed 360 and watched it Sun.). They were all Republicans but me. None really like McCain, but feel he is their only choice. Some liked Obama until the Rev. Wright fiasco. Now they don't trust him either. I still stand firm with Hillary. I think that the Rep's will crucify Obama with the Wright story. More and more people are seeing that he really is a regular politician, not a God. No wonder all of the candidates are so close in numbers. Each has flaws.
John, I just love your reporting!, and on the "Rev." he is not going away and he speaks some truth and like his partner Louis when the "Rev." speak people listen good or bad, in this case it might be bad. I think it was bad on Obama to dog his family, he said the "Rev." was family and to me that doesn't fly, and more so the reason.
Republican now realize that they were failures & did grave damage to the country. They now want to change the direction & move US to better times. They they are getting smarter.
Wright is not running for president, Obama is. So who cares what Wright says? They are just rantings from a crazy old man. The Wright issue has been swept under the rug, and we are moving ahead. Now we must deal with the gasoline tax issue. And I think Obama is dead on for his plan to tax the windfall profit sharing of the oil companies. Bill Clinton himself said no refinery has been built in this country since 1976. Sounds like we have a real important issue here, and Obama has the right idea.
I am very skeptical of polls taken this early.
Question for the best political team on television,
how often do the early polls prove correct come
the fall election?
I am glad that people are starting to ask questions about Mr. Obama, and that he doesn't continue to get the free ride that he did for months. This is the presidency we are talking about; it's very important that we know everything about the candidates. And also, about who they surround themselves with, who they trust - that's very important, because they do have influence. President takes counsel from others, and delegates to others. Important to know who she/he takes counsel from, and to whom she/he delegates to. It's not American Idol or any reality show, where personalities matter as much as talent.
I have been resisting the conclusion for a while now, but I am inevitably being led to believe that you, Mr. King are favouring Clinton. It is showing through as a personal bias, which is neither here nor there as long as you don't try to mask it as objective and impartial coverage
John. Why are there no statistical breakdowns of the african-american vote? Surely african-americans are as diverse as white-americans in their voting habits. I would not lik to think that you perceive the vast majority of african-americans as being racist.
. . . Hillary herself has created this division of so called "white blue collar
workers". This is just a thinly veiled reference to the voters who won't
vote for him because he is of mixed race. There are thousands of white blue collar workers who are behind Senator Obama 100%. I happen
to be one of them. This is just another one of Hillary's race-baiting
tactics. Those voters that Hillary describe are really the ones that
have a different cultural outlook, and its called prejudice.
Obama 08.
Thank you John for presenting all of the facts ~ how refreshing!
. . . Not to mention that Hillary's trustworthiness rating is only 38%.
That's almost equal to Bush's approval rating. Why on earth would we
want to elect a president like that going in?
Have you seen the latest Rasmussen Report released today? From their national telephone survey they found that just 30% of the nation's likely voters believe Obama denounced his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most - 58% - say he denounced the pastor for political convenience. The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night.
The Report goes on to say that 74% of Republicans believe it's somewhat or very likely that Obama shares some of Wright's views. That assessment is shared by 49% of Democrats and 49% of those not affliliated with either major party.
Why is Rev. Wright a problem for Hillary? She didn;t start it and isn't doing anything to fuel it. Just CNN tries to paint her with that brush. Maybe if you all were a little more fair in your reporting people wouldn't cast her a villian.
John:
Your comments take me back to an article that was written by
Gary Hubbell in the Aspen Times Weekly. It is entitled, "In election 2008, don't forget Angry White Man". Angry white men come from all economic backgrounds and represent all geographic areas in the United States. They are both Democrat, Republicans, Libertarians or the Green Party. They consider themselves Americans first, and their ethnicity second. They are not racist and are willing to give everyone a fair chance if they work hard and play by the rules. They also vote. They would all like to see Senator Clinton as the nominee for the Democratic Party and in the general election would vote for Senator McCain.
Just maybe all these sideshow issues may turn out to be irrelevant to what is really going on with the electorate this year.
Just my thought!!!!
You are one of my favorites on CNN. I have followed your career for many years. I can always count on you giving me the straight talk. A real non-partisan who reports the facts. Keep up the GREAT work. I love your Google map board.
Susan
Phoenixville,PA
P.S. Many of these Angry White Men own guns and are members of the NRA. If I recall the word GUNS has created a lot of buzz as of late.
Why have you guys refused to cover the Paul vs. Clinton Trail out in LA.
From what I have read it could be the largest finance scandal since 2000.
I would think after the coverage of Resco and Wright it would be only fair and balanced. (no pun intended) to be the first on the story.
Love the blue board!!
Hi John, I've been using your delegate machine and it appears that Obama has already won irrespective of the upcoming contests. Hillary has never gotten over 60% in any state except Arkansas. It�s impossible for her to win in pledged delegates. We need to focus on the Superdelegates. It does not matter what the polls are saying, especially the General Election polls. They are totally irrelevant and inaccurate. The pundits are not prophets. It seems the polls and opinions are designed to sway people not inform people. I am almost convinced that Obama is going to bring an historic victory to the Democratic Party in November. I hope Americans will show that they're smarter than the Main Stream Manipulators, sorry, I mean Media. You're not like them.
Obama '08
Who are the people that are answering these polls; everyday my carpool discusses the political scene and we laugh at the absurdity of the polling results and the media's determination of what issues are really on the minds of the American people. Do you guys really think that the average american really cares about what Barack Obama's former pastor thinks? I want to know how the candidates are proposing to deal with the issues that affect rising food costs, rising fuel costs, stagnate wages, a ridiculous war, and anti-American sentiment around the world.
I guess the mainstream media has to create these ridiculous issues in order to keep all of the new political commentators working. Get real CNN; quit making issues out of the ridiculous and start acting like real journalists.
The Wright issue is so over, matter of fact the only Wright that we should be talking about is spelled (RIGHT), What and who is RIGHT for this country. We need to be talking about the issues that affect our daily lives, such as health care,gas prices, food prices, the war, housing, joblessness, homelessness, reducing taxes,finding solutions for the environment. We as Americans need to be concerned about changing our image around the world. The last eight years have really left us in a very poor standing. I would image that the people of the world are scratching there heads and thinking thoughts of how can so much energy be put put into something that has nothing to do with nothing. And these are the people(USA) that want to be the country ,that leads the world into the future, and be the problem solvers for the rest of the world. We have a chance to do something historical (no not vote a black man into office) but to put a man in office who can really alter the course of history. We need to be put back, on the RIGHT path again. Years ago we use to say we need to save the world for our grandkids and great -grandkids. We are living in the days RIGHT know ,of the grandkids and great -grandkids. Lets vote for Barack Obama. Lets settle this campaign, we can not afford four years of McBushism to go along with the 8 years that we had with Bush.
it's no surprise that Bill Clinton and Jeremiah Wright, two peas in a pod, are determined to destroy Barach OBama. He represents their vision for themselve as young men. They can't believe that the country has moved on leaving them in the dust. They are has-beens, naysayers, angry old men. Worried about John McCain representing a third term for George Bush, worry more about Hillary Clinton winning a third term for Bill. I'm a 65 year old white woman and I'm voting for Barach OBama.
Rachelle Houston Texas
John King the Republicans do not agree with Democrats period. That's why they are not Democrats. If they were changing their minds they would be denouncing McCain. They want to win in November. They want to run against the most vulnerable Democrat. They intensely dislike the Clintons.
The Wright controversy is hurting Sen. Obama. The constant focus by the media on this is driving public opinion. Drip drip drip. Most people get their information from the media. Replay your Republican strategists. They want Hillary. There is no better way to divide than to discuss religion and race instead of the real issues where Democrats are united.
Tune into CNN's own Issue #1 at noon to know what the real problems are. Religion is not on the list.
Yes she can 🙂
This is just what we need. Beer drinking, gun shooting, bowling nuts, uneducated people deciding an election. I read on a blog yesterday that someone would never vote democratic again because the democratic support separation of church and state. Will the same people who voted for Bush vote for Hillary? We need more devisivness, anger, put it in your face, lying, doing anything to achieve ends, leadership in this country. Wright is not an issue. The issues are global hunger and food shortages (which are getting worse), global warming, oil costs,, social security, pollution, water shortages in many parts of the west, 1 in four in prison, 2 wars, 300,000 soldiers with war related injuries or trauma, devisivness in congress, devisivness in society, continued racial problems, insecure borders, illegal immigrants, too much crime, a gathering powerful Russia, to name just a few of the problems. This does not even tackle the problems of the diminishing middle class and the ever expanding separation between the haves and the have nots. What is going on that the media cannot focus on what really are the problems. Is everyone in the media beer guzzling couch potatoes that think Hillary is a god send?
Obama spent 20 years going to the same church,listening to Liberation Theology(Marxism)because he agrees with Rev Wright. He baptised his kids and married them. Those are very personal moments in a persons life. I think Obama never anticipated or expected anything about Rev Wright to go public. Religious beliefs are personal and private. Political policy is is well thought out and planned before made public in speeches. He is always very careful what he says publicly. Of course I think of that old saying "You can tell alot about a man by the company he keeps". I think Obama was a great speeker but now he is turning into a preacher perhaps Rev Wright is the father he never had a relationship with.Eighteen months in the senate isnt enough to be president. The realities of life are a much stronger influence on voters than Oprah who pushed Obama to run.
Ask yourself WHY do the Republicans want to run against Hillary Clinton and not Barack Obama;
Answer: So they can use;
1) Peter Paul vs. the Clintons civil law suit on campaign fraud currently in the courts
2) So they can use Hillary’s closest supporters and staff members on youtube slandering white n”"”"”"”s in Indiana
3) So they can utilize their intelligence on who contributed to the Clinton library.
4) So they can use the sniper fire lies to their benefit
5) So they can use Governor Rendell praising and honoring Farraquan on youtube
many, many other examples of why they want to run against Hillary and Bill Clinton vs. Barack Obama. Barack made one mistake in his choice of words at the end of a long day in California and the rest is simple guilt by association to embellished out of context crap…..
This Republican never thought any of the Dems was worth wasting her time and energy on for the election.
Who cares about what the Republican's think? No one but you, anything to try and bring Obama down/ IT WILL NOT WORK, CNN – YOU AND HILLARY NEED TO JUST GIVE IT UP!