April 21st, 2008
10:55 AM ET

Why Can't Obama Close the Deal?

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Eric Bloom
360° Producer

For the past six plus weeks the media and most political pundits have given Senator Hillary Clinton little chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Headlines like “The Long Defeat” and “The Clinton Myth” have portrayed Clinton’s hopes as dwindling and nearly extinguished. The numbers appear to back this up. Senator Barack Obama has a commanding lead- some might say insurmountable- in delegates, popular vote, and states won.

The Clinton campaign faced similar dire straits leading up to the March 4th contests in Ohio and Texas, and showed her campaign’s resiliency by winning Ohio and the popular vote in Texas.

Now one day before Pennsylvanians vote, Clinton appears to have abated Obama’s momentum in the polls and perhaps is increasing her lead.


Filed under: Barack Obama • Raw Politics
April 21st, 2008
08:10 AM ET

Obama and Clinton in a dead heat: Will media analyze why?

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Lanny J. Davis
Friend of Senator Hillary Clinton, and fundraiser for her presidential campaign

The latest Gallup National Democratic Tracking Poll shows a 9 point drop by Senator Barack Obama in about a week. Will the pundits and media analyze why?

Here are the specifics: In the three-day ongoing Gallup Poll of 1,252 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters, from Thursday-Saturday April 17-19, Senator Obama leads by 47% to 45%. Because that 2-point edge is within the 3% margin of error, it means Hillary Clinton is now in a statistical head heat with Barack Obama.

This represents a dramatic drop by Senator Obama among Democrats and independent leaners of about 9% in less than a week - a drop that Gallup says began just before the recent ABC debate, and that continued and has leveled off as of Saturday.

It's also worth noting that as of Friday night, April 18, the tracking poll showed Senator Clinton with a 1% lead over Senator Obama, 46% to 45% over three days of calling between April 16-18).

Filed under: Barack Obama • Democrats • Hillary Clinton • Lanny Davis • Raw Politics
April 21st, 2008
07:11 AM ET

Morning Buzz

Morning folks...

It's less than 24 hours until the voting begins in Pennsylvania....Will Obama pull off an unexpected upset? Can Hillary hold on to her small lead and win by just enough to justify staying in the race? Or will we have our Democratic nominee come close of business tomorrow...AC360  will have all the analysis tonight with John King, Candy Crowley, Gloria Borger, TIME magazines Joe Klein and Mark Halperin... Let the games begin....

Most political headlines this morning say it was a weekend of intense campaigning....Barack Obama cast his opponent in one of the most NEGATIVE lights of the entire 16-month campaign, calling her "a compromised Washington insider." Hillary Clinton responded by suggesting that Mr. Obama’s message of hope had given way to old-style politics and asked Democrats to take a harder look at him.

The latest polls show Hillary ahead by about 5 points....and undecided voters normally flock to Hillary - so that could help....but tonight Randi Kaye looks at "unmarried women." They were among the first to oppose the war and the the first to turn on the Bush administration. For a long time this group has been ignored by candidates and stayed home on election day...NOT this year...so far in 2008 primaries, this group of unmarried are driving both the youth and women's vote....

If cash decides the Primary winner, Obama will hands down!!! He has outspent Clinton in PA by millions AND he continues to raise lots of it. In March, Obama raised $41 million and had $42 million available to spend against debt-ridden Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton in April, campaign finance reports filed Sunday show. Clinton reported raising $20 million in March and had $9 million for the primary available at the beginning of April. But she also reported debts of $10.3 million, putting her in the red. And ironically according to the NY TIMES, McCain has always staked his his campaign for the presidency in large part on his reputation as a reformer intent on curbing the influence of money in politics. But an examination by The New York Times of a list of 106 elite fund-raisers who have brought in more than $100,000 each for Mr. McCain found that about a sixth of them were lobbyists...interesting....

AND in other non-political news.... The Texas branch of the American Civil Liberties Union is now involved....Saying it was concerned that the basic rights of the children and mothers connected to a Texas polygamist ranch were violated during a recent raid and custody hearing. At the hearing Friday, Judge Barbara Walther ordered 416 children connected to the YFZ (Yearning For Zion) ranch kept in state custody. TODAY they begin the court ordered DNA testing of ALL the kids....

PLUS...the superintendent of the Chicago Police Department on Sunday blamed an excess of guns and gangs for a rash of 26 shootings over the weekend that killed and wounded victims from 13 to 65 years old. A subject we will continue to report on...

Filed under: The Buzz
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