February 8th, 2008
11:29 PM ET

David Gergen: Brokered Convention?

Anderson asked a pertinent question tonight: Will the Democrats wind up in a brokered convention? There is a good chance that will happen - unless one of the candidate breaks out before then.

Barack Obama is the one who has the first chance for a breakout: Between now and March 4, there are nine primaries and caucuses on the Democratic side and Barack is favored in most of them. One of the nine where Hillary wants to stop him is Virginia - a state that many have thought would be close.

That's why it was notable today that a couple of Virginia polls said he has a double digit lead. If he wins big there and elsewhere, he could build up a full head of steam.

For Hillary, the best chance for a breakout comes on March 4 in Ohio and Texas. And she might just do it - like Bill, she is good at comebacks. But I think she has to put some brakes on Obama before then.

That's why the states coming up in the next couple of weeks are more important than many commentators think - they could have a big impact. Worth watching closely.

– David Gergen, CNN Sr. Political Commentator

Filed under: Barack Obama • David Gergen • Hillary Clinton • Raw Politics
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