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February 4th, 2008
12:15 PM ET

From Super Bowl to Super Tuesday

We are in mourning here this morning in Boston.

The Patriots went in with the experienced, superior team but give credit where it is due: the Giants, featuring a host of Super Bowl rookies, simply outplayed them.

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David Gergen is a political contributor for Anderson Cooper 360°.
Question: Will that same dynamic play out in the Democratic primaries tomorrow night?

Obama supporters can rightly take heart from his polling surge, pulling close in many key states like California, New Jersey, Connecticut and Missouri. Some weekend polls even have him inching ahead in California.

If all the votes were cast tomorrow in California, Obama would have a very good chance of capturing the biggest prize of all. Unfortunately for him, Californians may have already cast as many as half the ballots. They received absentee ballots in the mail just after Hillary won New Hampshire as she was riding high on a wave of positive coverage and held a sizable lead in California. Moreover, many of those who vote early are women and older folks, two of her strongholds.

This early voting will probably tilt heavily her way and may overwhelm Obama's late surge.  For Obama, the question thus becomes whether he can generate a powerful wave of voters to come to the polls tomorrow, tipping it his way. He has done it before in Iowa and South Carolina, can he do it again?   

The bottom line as I see it: these weekend polls are certainly good news for Obama - and reflect clear vulnerabilities in the Clinton candidacy - but she still goes in as a strong favorite.

Then again, so did the Patriots. 

– David Gergen, 360° Political Contributor


Filed under: Barack Obama • David Gergen • Hillary Clinton • Raw Politics
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