Tom Foreman | BIO
AC360° Correspondent

Hang on. That’s what some of the nation’s best economic forecasters are telling consumers. Whether these experts are studying those endless piles of numbers about joblessness and consumer credit, or plumbing the depths of the stock market’s turmoil, or looking into a Magic 8-Ball; the trend is unmistakable. Quietly, cautiously, and yet steadily, more voices are rising to say the economy either is ready to start turning around.

It sounds preposterous, of course, amid all the bleak news about unemployment, businesses closing and that ocean of bad mortgages still flowing through the financial sector. But these prognosticators base their rosy beliefs on three simple ideas.

1. They think the government’s programs are working. Already they have noted that lending institutions, buoyed by all that bailout money, are more willing to lend to each other. That is the first step, these economists say, toward truly unfreezing the credit market and making a lot more money available to small businesses and consumers. Remember, the initial problem was not loans, it was bad loans.
2. They believe consumer confidence will come back. Sure, plenty of people are worried about their jobs now and cutting back on Christmas spending. But with the new year, and a new president, these forecasters expect a psychological boost as most people realize they still have jobs, houses, and things they want to buy.
3. They say the housing market is ready to bounce back. Almost all of our neighborhoods have been deafened by the roar of falling property values for months now. The good news is that has pushed scads of houses into a price range that is very attractive to buyers. As the credit market warms up, those buyers are expected to begin driving those prices the other way.

All this could be wishful thinking. Chaos in global markets, missteps by the new administration, a big natural disaster, or any number of other things could derail all the optimism in a flash. And we should note that plenty of economists are warning that we may yet have to endure months of difficulty before things get better.

But at least they are talking about things getting better. Maybe in January. Maybe in June. But 2009 is already, for some, looking like if not a very good year, at least a much better one.

Tom Foreman | Bio
AC360° Correspondent

Unlike a lot of politicians whose campaign ads and public statements suggest they don’t have an ounce of faith in the intelligence of their fellow citizens, I’ve always thought the people of this country are pretty smart. We Americans can smell a rat when one scurries through the room. We know when we’re being fed a line of horse manure. And we know what’s really happening in our lives, even when Washington says it’s not so.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has finally made official what all of us knew a long time ago: America is in a recession. To be fair, the folks in charge of making this determination do so based on a broad analysis of a lot of economic numbers. Those numbers create a strict definition of when a recession begins, when it peaks, and when it ends. So these people can not just declare one at the drop of a hat. The recession we are in now, according to the NBER, began a year ago in December, 2007.

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Tom Foreman | Bio
AC360° Correspondent

Two roads are diverging in a Washington wood, and frankly that’s scaring the hell out of Congress.

I’m talking about the economy of course. The latest numbers from Dr. Obvious (meaning whomever has pumped out the most recent terrible news about jobs, production, failing businesses, you name it) is just confirming what we all know: The economic woods are growing very dark ahead of us. And our nation’s leaders are standing at a crossroads.

In one direction is the sign that points to Bailout Town. With the stumbles over the car industry’s request for help, it is possible that this road is fast closing. But let’s say for a moment it remains open. The best hope for anyone traveling this way is that massive infusions of your tax dollars will help stabilize a series of key industries, which will in turn help stabilize the economy overall. But there are plenty of potential pitfalls on this path. Already rumbles are arising from everyone else lining up for assistance: telecommunications firms, insurance companies, airlines, municipalities, and on and on the list goes. You pay a lot of taxes. I pay a lot of taxes. Trust me, we still don’t pay enough taxes to cover every company that would like a check right now. And we don’t know if the road to Bailout Town will really get us anywhere.

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Program note: Watch Tom Foreman’s full report about how Former President Bill Clinton’s foundation fund raising affects a possible Secretary of State position for Hillary Clinton. Tonight, 10p ET.

Tom Foreman | Bio
AC360° Correspondent

Harry Houdini used to perform a famous trick called The Metamorphosis.

He would be handcuffed, sealed in a large cloth bag, and stuffed into a trunk, which was wrapped in chains. His wife, Bess, would then raise a curtain, and in a flash, he would be standing free, and she would be discovered locked and sealed inside the trunk.

It was a trick that required discipline, carefully orchestrated movements, and teamwork; and the Washington heirs to Houdini’s throne are Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Lest anyone doubt their commitment to being the dynamic duo of miracle working politicians, just witness his latest agreement to divulge information about donors to his foundation as a way of possibly clearing her path to becoming Secretary of State.

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Tom Foreman
AC360° Correspondent

I’m looking into the claims of the auto industry about all the bad things that will happen without a bailout, and I can’t help but think about that guy Milton in the movie Office Space.

The big car makers and their unions are making a powerful case for taxpayers (that means you, BTW) to pony up some dough and help them out of their troubles. They say too many jobs, too many towns, too many states will suffer too badly if their industry is not rescued. Anarchy will rule. Dogs will sleep with cats. Apocalypse now.

Problem is, making the case for a bailout seems to be the most popular game in DC these days, no matter what troubled industry is on the table. The argument is always the same: We’re too big to fail, and if we do, we’ll take all of you down with us. It’s like big businesses all over have wrapped themselves in a shield of taxpayer-hostages.

I’m not dismissing their arguments. There is a lot of truth in the notion that if we let some of these big firms fold, we’ll all feel the collapse in our own finances.

I also have no idea how many will ultimately be bailed out, but I’m pretty sure the government money train will screech to a halt right before it reaches my station…or yours.

Which is why I’m thinking about Milton Waddam. I keep seeing images in my mind of all of us normal taxpayers, struggling to pay bills, put kids through college, maybe save a little money, keep our jobs and our sanity; finally reaching the point where we say, “Enough! We need a bailout, too!” And at the moment, I suspect, we’ll be like Milton waiting on that slice of party cake. We will be polite, patient, and quietly dismayed as we slowly realize everyone else has gotten theirs, and nothing is left for us.

The thing Washington has to worry about, however, is not Milton’s disappointment, but Milton’s revenge. Don’t forget the end of the movie. The taxpayers who buy the bailout arguments now are expecting results. They expect the economy to get better, and if it doesn’t, Democratic and Republican politicians can expect those taxpayers to get even when the next election roles around.

Former president Bill Clinton at a global forum on leadership in Rotterdam on Friday.

Program Note: President-elect Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton have met to discuss top jobs in the next administration, but what about Bill? Watch Tom Foreman’s report on ‘The Bill Factor,’ AC360° tonight 10p ET.

Tom Foreman
AC360° Correspondent

Maybe, like they say in the old westerns, “this town ain’t big enough” for the two of them.

The former fastest gun in the Democratic party, Bill Clinton, and the newest sharpshooter, Barack Obama, once again appear to be poised at opposite ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. They are not saying anything bad about each other, and in truth they could both say circumstances (as opposed to personal or professional animus) have put them at potential odds this time, but the fact remains: Team Obama is once again wrestling with what role Bill Clinton might play in the next administration.

Specifically, DC is buzzing over whether making Senator Hillary Clinton Secretary of State would open an unwanted diplomatic back door to the White House, via the former president.

The sticking point this time is all the good works Bill Clinton has tried to pursue outside of politics.

The Clinton Foundation, started by the former President in the wake of his White House years, has been widely praised for its efforts to fight AIDS, malaria, and global climate change. It has earned respect and support from many of the world’s poorest nations for promoting economic development, better health care, and improved education.

Problem is, all of that takes money. And when you are in the charity business, that means donors. And when you are a former president, that means donors from many far flung places, including countries which might be interested in palling around with a man whose wife is the U.S. Secretary of State.
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AC360 artist's interpretation of Tom Foreman's favorite Halloween costume based on his blog

Editor’s Note: Happy Halloween! We asked some of our favorite CNN personalities to share with us their Halloween memories. We asked them a few ‘Trick or Treat’ questions…. here’s what they had to say:

Tom Foreman | Bio
AC360° Correspondent

Favorite Halloween costume as a kid?

I had a store bought Frankenstein costume when I was in kindergarten: green satin pants, some kind of long sleeved green top with a picture of Frankenstein on it, and a mask that would allow you to see out of only one eye hole at a time, unless you were congenitally gifted with eyes that were three inches apart. I tried to run across a dark street on the Air Force base where we lived in South Dakota, to keep up with my older brother and sister, and I fell, ripping the knee. I cried because it hurt, because I ruined my costume, and because I was pretty sure at that point people would realize I was not really Frankenstein. Mind you, I was already working against type by being three feet tall at the time.

Favorite scary movie?

The Sound of Music. Enough said.

Best Halloween memory?
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The McCain campaign is questioning Barack Obama’s ties with a former university professor.
CNN’s Tom Foreman reports.

We assembled two panels - one black, one white - both evenly divided among McCain and Obama supporters, to talk about some of the more controversial statements on the campaign trail.  Watch AC360° at 10p ET to see what each panel had to say about McCain’s question “Who is the real Obama?”, whether Reverend Wright is fair game, and Obama’s ties to Bill Ayers.

Here you can watch extended clips of both panels.  First, the caucasian panel, interviewed by Tom Foreman.

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So who is to blame for this financial fiasco?
That’s the question we’ve begun investigating.
We’ve put together a list of the Ten Most Wanted: Culprits of the Collapse.
#2 on our list: former CEO of mortgage giant Fannie Mae, Franklin Raines. CNN’s Tom Foreman reports.