Maria Teresa Petersen
Founding Executive Director, Voto Latino

When you consider how Barack Obama remade the electoral map, flipping red states to blue, it's clear that John McCain should have been talking about Jose the Voter instead of Joe the Plumber. And with Latinos constituting the fastest growing group of Americans, it's clear Republicans need an emergency plan to win back Latino voters, or this realignment may be long-lasting.

In 1992, 5 million Latinos voted; this week, approximately 12 million voted, and the trend is up, up, up. Given that there are 46 million Latinos in America and only 18 million are eligible to vote today, as younger Latinos reach voting age and others become citizens, we are facing a cresting wave of Latino voters that will continue well through the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections.

For many Latinos, this was the week they cast their first ballot. After a divisive immigration reform debate which many Latinos saw as disrespectful in tone, Latinos turned against the GOP and Obama outperformed Kerry among Latinos by 13 percentage points. Obama won the Latino vote 2-1 and that's what put him over the top in tight elections in Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. As Latinos migrate beyond the coastal states of California and New York, in coming elections, Latino voters will mean the difference between winning or losing traditionally red states like North Carolina and Georgia.

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Editor's note: See Maria Teresa Peterson on AC360° tonight at 10p ET.
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Maria Teresa Petersen
Founding Executive Director, Voto Latino

Barack Obama's campaign is disciplined and - compared to other campaigns in recent history - risk adverse. Even when Obama struggled in the polls last fall, he remained steady on his message of change and kept his core team. His consistency has served him well – and helped him secure his party's nomination against long odds. In fact, every one of his campaign moves seems strategic and intentional.

That's exactly why Senator Obama's 30-minute, $3 million commercial tonight is surprising to many and gutsy by his own standards. In airing the commercial just seven days before November 4th, Obama seems to be straying from his campaign's playbook.

Tonight, Obama opens himself up to scrutiny by media, voters and the opposition. In delivering his address, he can not seem to presume he has won the election - i.e. he can't have an Obama Presidential Seal moment like the one he had this past summer. Instead he has to appeal to voters' fundamental values.

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Maria Teresa Petersen | BIO
Executive Director, Voto Latino

Never mind Joe the Plumber, both candidates covertly courted two other constituencies. Senator Obama weaved pro-choice and equal pay into his debate to win Wal-Mart moms. McCain stealthy courted Florida – more specifically, he courted the quarter of a million Colombians who reside in the sunshine state and other registered voters with strong ties to Latin America.

How else can one explain McCain bridging energy policy and America's foreign oil dependence to Colombia's failed free trade agreement before Congress? The connection was forced at best -unless one wants to win Florida.

At a time when the election hinges on a state by state strategy, Florida will prove critical this election as it has the past two cycles. And while McCain is losing the Latino vote in every battleground states by over 65%, Florida is the exception. Here Obama is up among Latino voters by a mere 6 point lead. If McCain consolidates the Cuban conservative vote with the Colombian one, he still has a shot at the White House.
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