Editor’s Note: In addition to being a senior adviser to the Gore 2000 presidential campaign and the chief strategist for the 2004 Kerry-Edwards campaign, Robert M. Shrum’s writing has appeared in the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The New Republic, Slate, and other publications. The author of No Excuses: Concessions of a Serial Campaigner (Simon and Schuster), he is currently a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Wagner School of Public Service.
Robert M. Shrum
Senior Fellow at New York University’s Wagner School of Public Service.
Two weeks to go—time enough for one last case of Democratic wobbles and one last resort fueled by Republican desperation.
Democrats, scarred by the stolen election of 2000 and the near miss of 2004, privately worry, wring their hands and, traveling cyberspace’s vast expanse, trip over a discouraging word, poll, or prediction. Generally, they needn’t look farther than the Drudge Report, which shamelessly selects information—and disinformation—in order to stereotype Barack Obama and denigrate his prospects.
With genuine anguish, one Democrat said to me Sunday, “Did you see Drudge has Obama only 2.7 percent ahead?”
It wasn’t actually Drudge, but a poll by Zogby, which Drudge had cherry picked for its pessimism. (Unlike Drudge, Zogby isn’t biased; he famously elected Kerry in 2004.) Rasmussen’s poll used to be Drudge’s favorite, but on Sunday it showed Obama leading by six, so Drudge swept it under the rug.
Perhaps for Democrats, the dark night of doubt is inevitable before victory dawns. But a study of the election state by state reveals McCain has a virtually impossible tight rope walk to victory while Obama has five or six different avenues to win—some of which are veritable boulevards. Not a single one of the states won by John Kerry in 2004 is even close.
In addition, Obama leads, in the Real Clear Politics average of the latest polls, in nine states won by George W. Bush in 2004, including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. Even in Missouri Obama has a small advantage, and he’s only slightly behind in three other Bush states. As former Reagan and Huckabee campaign manager Ed Rollins puts it, McCain has to “draw an inside straight” to win this game.
John Avlon
Author, Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics
Coming out of the Democrats’ first night in Denver, there’s been some criticism in the spin rooms that the tone was too civil – not Bush-bashing enough. But the last thing that centrist and independent voters want is an angry Party of Obama.
The Bush administration has done its own work in alienating these swing voters – leading to the Republican repudiation of 2006. And no doubt future nights of the convention will take on a more prosecutorial tone. But it was right to begin this convention by aiming for a unifying, optimistic note. The Democrats’ outreach to the evangelical center and opening the stage to Senator Bob Casey – whose father, the pro-life Governor of Pennsylvania, was denied a speaking role in 1996 – are part of this more inclusive tone.
Reporters are now buzzing that former Virginia Governor and current senate candidate Mark Warner – who is giving the keynote address Tuesday night – is refusing to go negative, saying that it’s out of step with his self-described “radical centrist” philosophy. Warner has the experience of turning a “red” state “blue” – something that Dems are trying to do nationwide. In states like Colorado – where Independents now outnumber Democrats and Republicans – the centrist approach is the proven way to win. And centrism means civility.
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Editor’s Note: Now that Sen. Barack Obama has chosen his vice presidential nominee, some republicans are saying that Sen. Joe Biden’s biggest problem is that he’s not Hillary Clinton. Today on American Morning, Former Hillary Clinton Press Secretary, Lisa Caputo weighed in on the issue. Here are her observations:
Lisa Caputo
Former Hillary Clinton Press Secretary
On Rudy Giuliani’s reaction to Joe Biden getting the pick from Barack Obama:
“I think the republican party is grasping at straws. Clearly, I find it fascinating that Rudy Giuliani is out there lauding Hillary Clinton, his political nemesis… They have a history. I’m sure this has a lot to do with Joe Biden’s great one-liner in the debates in the primaries where he said that Rudy Giuliani was known for three words, one of which is 9/11, I and 9/11, which is to say that Giuliani didn’t have a lot of depth and a lot of substance. So I think they’re scrambling because Biden is such a solid pick for the democratic party.”
On polls showing Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain tied, even after selection of Joe Biden:
“I expect a bounce coming out of the Democratic Convention for Senator Obama. He must not only define himself but he must define himself in relation to Senator McCain. So he’s got to do two things, he’s got to define McCain and define himself and show America what the differences are between the two of them.”
On the reaction to the Democratic Presidential ticket:
“I think in the end democrats will unite around Barack Obama as the leader of the democratic party going into this election. Democrats want to get rid of the McCain-Bush era and I think it’s fair to say that going into this convention you’re going to see the democratic party highlight the strengths of the ticket. What Joe Biden brings to this ticket? What Barack Obama brings to this ticket? In change, Biden bringing the experience, an appeal to women voters as a sponsor of, an author of the Violence Against Women Act. Very pro-Israel, Joe Biden, which will help with Jewish voters… If you look in today’s “New York Times” however you’ll see that there is a poll out saying more than half of the delegates, the Clinton delegates, are for Obama. And I think in the end you will see absolutely Hillary Clinton do the right thing. On Wednesday she is convening her delegates. She is going to talk to them and ask them to throw all of their support against Barack Obama. So I think that democrats will absolutely unite. It’s Barack Obama’s convention and it’s Barack Obama’s day.”
On John McCain’s new ad with former Hillary supporters saying ‘I can’t go with Obama’:
“I think he has nowhere else to go except to try and grasp at a straw here and take the tact of why didn’t he pick Hillary Clinton? The fact of the matter is Biden was a very strong pick and even as Ed has said, you know very strong resume, and he is going to appeal to swing voters. He’s a Catholic. He’s from a working class background, reared in Scranton, Pennsylvania near my hometown of Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. And so I think Biden was absolutely a strong pick and I think the McCain campaign is scrambling to figure out, gee, now what do they do because Obama picked such a credible number two.”
Tom Foreman
AC360° Correspondent
Presidential campaigns can be depressing times when you are in the fact–checking business, because so many of the “facts” being waved around wind up as shaky as Karl Rove at a Plame family reunion.
Take just one round of Olympic-Size Policy Pitching this week.
Both candidates were on the trail, once again, making bold statements full of reasonable assertions about what we need to do to cut our dependence on foreign oil, develop alternative fuels and vehicles, and generally get our economy on somewhat sounder footing. Both marshal an impressive array of facts to support their claims. But economic, political, tax, and energy analysts all say both senators have left out critical parts of the equation. Keep reading
Hilary Rosen
Political Director, The Huffington Post
Senator Clinton’s speech last night was a justifiably proud recitation of her accomplishments over the course of this campaign, but it did not end right. She didn’t do what she should have done. As hard and as painful as it might have been, she should have conceded, congratulated, endorsed and committed to Barack Obama. Therefore the next 48 hours are now as important to the future reputation of Hillary Clinton as the last year and a half have been.
I am disappointed. As a long time Hillary Clinton supporter and more importantly, an admirer, I am sad that this historic effort has ended with such a narrow loss for her. There will be the appropriate “if onlys” for a long time to come. If only the staff shakeup happened earlier; if only the planning in caucus states had more focus; if only Hillary had let loose with the authentic human and connecting voice she found in the last three months of the campaign. If only. If only. I have written many times on this site about the talents of Hillary Clinton and why I thought she’d make a great President.
After last night’s final primary, she was only about pledged 100 delegates behind him. Ironic that after not wanting to make the decision for so long, it was in fact, the superdelegates who made the decision. But I guess they did so for another reason…
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Barclay Palmer
360° Senior Producer
Today reminds me of that odd feeling when you see a heavily promoted “Season Finale” on TV, but you know a whole new season begins any minute–right after your too quick summer vacation.
Sure, the amazing and gripping Obama vs. Hillary contest is over… But what now–does he pick her as running mate, win over her supporters and heal the party–and get Wild Bill rustling up trouble, to boot?
Or does he pick some lesser mortal to form some dream-is-over ticket, and hope everyone will forget the valiant but too-late rally by Hillary and her supporters, and let him get on with the real title fight with John McCain?
The fellow parents waiting at my daughter’s bus stop this morning could talk about nothing else. Daughters? Oh yeah–bye!! Love you!!
What’s your view?
Lanny J. Davis
Former special counsel to President Clinton, and supporter of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign
After the votes are in from Puerto Rico tomorrow and South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton will be able to make a facts-based case that they represent a significant majority of grass-roots Democrats. Chances are Sens. Obama and Clinton will virtually split the more than 4,400 delegates—including Florida and Michigan—elected by more than 34 million people over the past five months.
Sen. Clinton has already won the most votes, but there is controversy over including the over 300,000 votes from Michigan, since Sen. Obama was not on the ballot (by his own choice). But if Sen. Clinton wins a substantial victory in Puerto Rico tomorrow—with an expected record turnout exceeding two million voters—she could well end up with more popular votes than Sen. Obama, even if Michigan’s primary votes are excluded.
Worst case, she could come out with a 2% deficit in elected pledged delegates. But that gap can be made up, if most of the remaining 200 or so unpledged superdelegates decide to support Sen. Clinton as the strongest candidate against John McCain—or if others committed to Sen. Obama decide to change their minds for the same reason. A number of superdelegates previously committed to Sen. Clinton later announced support for Sen. Obama, so it’s certainly possible that, when confronted with growing evidence that Sen. Clinton is stronger than Sen. McCain, they might switch back.
The final argument for Hillary comes down to three points—with points one and two leading to the third.
Friend of Senator Hillary Clinton, and fundraiser for her presidential campaign
The latest Gallup National Democratic Tracking Poll shows a 9 point drop by Senator Barack Obama in about a week. Will the pundits and media analyze why?
Here are the specifics: In the three-day ongoing Gallup Poll of 1,252 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters, from Thursday-Saturday April 17-19, Senator Obama leads by 47% to 45%. Because that 2-point edge is within the 3% margin of error, it means Hillary Clinton is now in a statistical head heat with Barack Obama.
This represents a dramatic drop by Senator Obama among Democrats and independent leaners of about 9% in less than a week — a drop that Gallup says began just before the recent ABC debate, and that continued and has leveled off as of Saturday.
It’s also worth noting that as of Friday night, April 18, the tracking poll showed Senator Clinton with a 1% lead over Senator Obama, 46% to 45% over three days of calling between April 16-18).
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Faye Wattleton
President, Center for the Advancement of Women
Forty-four years after the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Acts to end pay inequity and 40 years after the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., while in the midst of a campaign seeking equal justice for workers, it’s hard to believe the Supreme Court has violated the spirit of the legislation. But it did in Ledbetter v. Goodyear, which upheld 19 years of blatant workplace discrimination against Lilly Ledbetter. The decision must be overturned, and Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have the best chance this year to push for it.
The Fair Pay Restoration Act (S.1843), passed by the House (H.R.2831) only two months after the Court’s decision, sits stalled in the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, on which both senators serve. Their failure even to call for hearings toward moving it out of committee for passage by the Senate is perplexing. While the legislation is languishing in committee purgatory, the Chimp Haven is Home Act (S.1916) has been quickly signed into law by President Bush. The first woman and the first African-American presidential candidate in U.S. history should know better.
The presidential hopefuls are attempting to convince Pennsylvanians that they will stem job losses due to trade agreements. They could engage in the kind of unified effort for change that they both promote and simply press for a vote to end discrimination that prevents women from receiving fair treatment at the workplace. Keep reading
Editor’s note: Jason Rae is a Democratic superdelegate from Wisconsin and has pledged his support to Sen. Barack Obama. He agreed to blog for 360° about his experiences. (WATCH JASON ON 360°)
According to CNN records, 185 superdelegates have pledged to Senator Obama and 236 superdelegates have pledged to Senator Clinton. That leaves just about 373 superdelegates up for grabs and those superdelegates most certainly will have a close eye on what is happening in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday. So what are superdelegates hoping to see on Tuesday?
First, superdelegates want to see a clear winner. In the Democratic field, we are left with two strong, viable candidates seeking the nomination. When it came down for me to decide who to support, it was a difficult decision and I think this is one of the main struggles we are seeing with superdelegates. They are happy with either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama and thus they are hoping to see one candidate really get a commanding lead on Tuesday. If that happens, I am thinking we will see a huge influx of superdelegates jump on board that candidate’s campaign.
Second, superdelegates always have the best interest of the party at heart. While certainly dragging this nomination out to convention would be a sight to see, doing so would be harmful to the party. We need to unite behind a candidate as quickly as possible in order to be successful in November. As such, and much like my first point, if one candidate has a resounding lead in pledged delegates coming out of Tuesday, I think that superdelegates will also be quick to endorse and help select a final nominee so that we can work on uniting as a party.
Superdelegates will be watching CNN very, very closely on Tuesday night to get election results. I’m starting to think this may be the end of the primary process right here.
- Jason Rae, Democratic Superdelegate
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