David Gergen | Bio
AC360° Contributor
CNN Senior Political Analyst

As the Democrats open their convention in Denver, these quick thoughts:

• HISTORIC: Whether or not they win the White House, this Democratic convention represents an historic breakthrough. Remember that this is a party whose roots rest deep in the soil of slavery and Jim Crow. Only with the coming of John Kennedy to the White House and then, especially, the passage of the Civil Rights laws of 1964 and 1965 under Lyndon Johnson did Democrats win the allegiance of black Americans. And now they become the first party ever to nominate a black America. Win or lose in November, this represents a huge advance for the party – and the country.
• THROUGH A LENS DARKLY – In the past 24 hours, most of the media has spoken continuously about all of Barack Obama’s problems. And certainly he has them: the on-rush of John McCain, the disgruntlement of many Clintonites and the closing of the polls suggests that indeed, the Republicans could pull off an upset this fall. But caution is in order here: the underlying landscape still favors the Democrats this fall. Ask yourself: If you were given a chance to play Obama’s hand as opposed to McCain’s hand, which one would you choose? Isn’t the answer pretty obvious?
• THE OBAMA-CLINTON TENSION: Polls of Democratic voters as well as delegates show that a significant number may bolt for McCain this fall. Bruised feelings remain on both sides. And of course the media is going to report heavily on these tensions: that’s what we in journalism usually do – focus on conflict. But again, some caution is in order: Hillary Clinton, after all, has been going all out in the past few days to put fires out and bring unity. That’s going to help. And don’t be surprised if these GOP ads trying to use Hillary’s campaign comments to drive a wedge among Democrats soon backfire. It’s one thing for you to have a squabble with a family member, but when a rival steps in and tries to exploit it, that drives the family members into each other’s arms. Could happen here.
• MICHELLE’S ROLE: Her speech Monday night is her second debut for some Americans and perhaps her first for many others who are just starting to focus in on the race (yes, there are millions like that – after all, only about half in a poll this weekend said they knew who Joe Biden is). The test for Michelle is whether viewers walk away tonight feeling not only more warmly about her and the Obama family but if they also feel that they would be proud to have the Obama family in the White House.
• THE ROLE OF OTHER SPEAKERS: Starting tonight, the role of other speakers is to change the narrative of this election. In recent weeks, the Republicans have been making it more and more a referendum on Obama – a referendum they clearly think they can win (and they may just be right). Of course, this convention must help to strengthen perceptions of Obama and his policies. But the larger challenge is to flip the national conversation so that the election becomes a referendum on Republican rule. That is traditionally what happens at the end of an eight year reign by one party – and that is traditionally why the out party then wins. Making this about Republican rule will not only help Obama but help the rest of the Democrats running around the country – and remember, Denver is not just about Obama but the fate of all Democrats.
• THE ROLE OF OBAMA: Let’s save that one for another day – a day soon coming.

David Gergen | Bio
AC360° Contributor
CNN Senior Political Analyst

Say what you will about Republicans making a muddle of governing, but they sure know how to campaign. The turn of events that John McCain and his team have engineered in recent weeks is one of the most significant events of the campaign and now poses a serious threat of an upset this fall.

In just a few short weeks, they have not only thrown Barack Obama on the defensive and made him seem smaller but they have also made McCain seem larger and more commanding. And it has not just been one event but a string of them that they have tied together to propel McCain upward — from the ads (which most of us in the media didn’t like) to the way McCain seized upon the drilling and Russian issues to his winsome performance at Saddleback. The capacity to create issues and momentum practically out of the ether is the sign of a strong campaign. Both McCain and his team are impressing voters.
Keep reading

David Gergen | Bio
AC360° Contributor
CNN Senior Political Analyst

Heading into the candidates’ appearances on Saturday night at Saddleback Church, the conventional wisdom in politics was Barack Obama should have a clear upper hand in any joint appearance with John McCain — one the young, eloquent, cool, charismatic dude who can charm birds from the trees, the other the meandering, sometimes bumbling, old fellow who can barely distinguish Sunnis from Shiias.

Well, kiss that myth goodbye.

McCain came roaring out of the gate from the first question and was a commanding figure throughout the night as he spoke directly and often movingly about his past and the country’s future. By contrast, Obama was often searching for words and while far more thoughtful, was also less emotionally connective with his audience.

To be sure, Obama held on to the loyalty of his own supporters — many have written in blog sites since how much they respected both his nuanced answers and the honesty of his convictions, especially his Christian faith.
Keep reading

David Gergen
AC360° Contributor
CNN Senior Political Analyst

I’m unfortunately stuck in an airport tonight and cannot join the discussion about the way the candidates have responded to the recent face-off between Russia and Georgia. Perhaps I can add two cents on the blog.

As a general proposition, Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama took different paths that represent two different approaches to foreign policy. Obama was much more the pragmatic, taking a cautious stance at first, calling for negotiations, when the facts were murky and it appeared there was some fault on both sides. As the Russians became more brutal and clearly went over the line, he hardened up, while still emphasizing the ultimate need for negotiations. In all of this, he was acting in concert with the Bush administration as well as NATO allies.

McCain by contrast was much tougher on the Russians right from the get go, siding entirely with the Georgians and their young democracy. He showed that he was experienced on the issue. His approach closely mirrored the hard line approach we often saw during the Bush first term, when neo-cons were often in the saddle.

Keep reading

Sen. John Edwards’ affair with Reille Hunter, the former director of operations for his presidential campaign, raised questions on the impact it would have had, had Edwards made it to the conventions as the Democratic nominee. Last night on AC360° we sat down with CNN Senior Political Analyst David Gergen to explore the larger implications regarding the Edwards affair along with the upcoming Democratic National Convention and the potential VP’s for presumptive nominee, Sen. Barack Obama. Here are his observations and insight:

David Gergen
CNN Senior Political Analyst

On how John Edwards and Reille Hunter met:

“There may be people out there who believe his story, but so far I haven’t met any. Everyone has questions about when this actually started up and whether she did on the payroll as after, and there have been various reports showing a timeline suggesting she went on the payroll after the relationship started; about the paternity of the child, about the money payments since then.

And now there are questions, of course, about whether John Edwards himself was a victim to some degree, whether he was set up at the Beverly Hilton. Perhaps even by her friend.” Keep reading

David Gergen
CNN Sr. Political Analyst
AC360° Contributor

Hello everyone - tried to post a blog earlier but I am afraid that it got lost in the system - perhaps it was eaten by that dog!

Anyway, to be brief, was trying to say tonight on air that I welcome the Obama trip overseas - and hope it sets a precedent for all future candidates. At the same time, as an old-fashioned institutionalist who was strongly shaped by working in the White House, I believe that whether a President is right or wrong on policy, we have only one President at a time and he must be the chief negotiator with other countries, especially in a time of war.

It is not clear that Senator Obama was trying to negotiate with Maliki - probably just the opposite - but in issuing that statement after the meeting, he left himself open to the charge that he was.

That’s why I thought it was a mistake - the first in what has been so far a very successful trip.

Hope this helps. Thanks.

Editor’s note: Here’s what David Gergen said Monday on AC360°:

“Barack Obama made the first mistake of his trip in releasing a statement in which he said exactly what Malaki had said in those conversations. We have a long tradition in this country that we only have one president at a time. He’s the commander in chief and negotiator in chief.

I cannot remember a campaign which a rival seeking the presidency has been in a position negotiating a war that’s underway with another party outside the country. I think he leaves himself open to the charge tonight that he’s meddling, that this is not his role, that he can be the critic but he’s not the negotiator. We have a President who does that.

So i think the underlying facts support him, but i think it was be a mistake to get intro these conversations and let it be used politically.”

Iran is making headlines after test-firing missiles… Last night on AC360° we sat down with CNN Senior Political Analyst David Gergen and Middle East Analyst Reza Aslan to explore the larger implications, and give context to what’s happening in the region. Here are their observations and insight:

On attacking Iran:

_____________
David Gergen
Former Presidential Adviser
CNN Senior Political Analyst
AC360° Contributor

“The big question tonight is whether, in fact, the United States and/or Israel will attack Iran while George W. Bush is still president in the next six months, before a new president comes in? That’s what’s rattling the oil markets and why, whenever the saber-rattling comes up, whether it’s testing by the Israelis, military maneuvers by the Israelis, military maneuvers by the united states, or now today by Iran, whatever that happens, oil prices shoot upward. And it has put pressure on the candidates. What would you do?… there is a sharp difference here between Barack Obama, who would put much more emphasis on diplomacy, on more carrots, if you would, as well as sticks, versus john McCain, who would have fewer carrots and more sticks.”

Keep reading

David Gergen
CNN Sr. Political Analyst
AC360° Contributor

It looks like gas could hit $5 a gallon shortly and perhaps even $6 a gallon by the end of the year. This is a huge problem for drivers, the auto industry and airlines, of course. And it could lead to significant changes in the way we live.

It also might have some grab in the presidential campaign: how much is the rumbling over a possible strike against Iran driving up prices? There was a lot of speculation last week about that. Then the price of oil went down yesterday because nothing happened over the weekend regarding Iran.

With Bush and the Israelis talking quietly about hitting Iran before Bush leaves office, and McCain and Obama in such different positions about how to handle Iran, it’s worth exploring higher energy prices. What’s behind them: is there really a conspiracy among speculators; what is the Iran connection? Keep reading

David Gergen
CNN Sr. Political Analyst
AC360° Contributor

I was struck by the mass e-mailing David Plouffe did Monday offering tickets to the Obama acceptance address in Bronco stadium — and attaching to it a request for a $5 donation which gave you essentially a raffle ticket for the speech. How they are using the Internet and marrying it to community organizing from his past is a thing to behold — likely to change our politics for a long time to come. Essentially McCain is moving toward running a much more top down campaign, while Obama is gaining great traction from his grassroots up approach:
Keep reading

James Dobson         Charlie Black             Karl Rove

David Gergen
CNN Sr. Political Analyst
Fmr. Presidential Adviser

The latest remarks by James Dobson, just like those yesterday by Karl Rove and Charlie Black, are sure to stir up a public fuss. Every presidential campaign brings these flare-ups when partisans let fly with criticisms about rival candidates (sometimes off the wall, as these seem) and naturally enough, the news media focuses in.

But I wish that storms like these would pass quickly. They are tending to drown out public conversation about issues more central to the next Presidency.

Just yesterday, John McCain offered some interesting ideas about the growing energy crisis (gas prices have now reached $4.75 in some areas around New York City and could hit $5 by July 4), but they were lost in the Charlie Black controversy…
Keep reading