Barclay Palmer
AC360° Senior Producer

G’morning folks!!

Barack Obama’s lead in the national polls has slipped from 9% to 1% in CNN’s poll of polls. What’s going on?

One Democratic insider calls it “the August curse.”

For several elections in a row, the Democratic presidential candidate has faded in the polls in late summer. Why? Well, they get wonky, they don’t make news, and they get pegged as “liberal elitists.”

Obama is the latest in a series of Democratic candidates who – rather than go in for the kill as Karl Rove has cleverly led Republicans to do – has tried to offer an uplifting vision. In doing so, they have failed to watch their flanks, and the GOP attacks coming from all sides. And they end up sounding more professors than commanders in chief.

There may be a good reason for that. Obama, Gore and Dukakis all have actually been professors, and MTV once made the professorial John Kerry a “surprise professor” for one of its “Stand-ins.”

And what do professors do? They lecture. They gently try to lead a group toward enlightenment. They don’t generally attack. And they don’t win elections.

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Barclay Palmer
AC360 Senior Producer

They both tried to take the high road…. or said they would, anyway.

John McCain once promised he wouldn’t engage in personal attacks on the campaign trail. But his attacks on Barack Obama, and not just on his policies, apparently have worked, contributing to Obama’s slip in national polls from a 9% lead to just 1% now, according to CNN’s poll of polls.

And now the Obama campaign has seen the light: not only does negative campaigning work; in presidential elections, recent history suggests it’s the way to win.

The Obama campaign has quietly launched attack ads in key local markets, while running positive ads nationally—and more visibly for the press. And after fretting among supporters that he has been too soft on McCain, Obama is now talking tougher on the stump.

We’ll look at this turn to the dark side by both candidates tonight.

We’ll also examine the McCain camp buzz about Lieberman, the Democrat. What’s that about?

And what do you think? Please let us know. Thanks.

Barclay Palmer
AC360 Senior Producer

Now Paris Hilton leaps into the presidential contest, releasing her own “campaign ad” with a tart reply to John McCain.

Last week, McCain mocked Barack Obama in an ad calling him the “biggest celebrity in the world,” mixing images of Obama with pictures of Hilton and Britney Spears, and asking, “But is he ready to lead?”

Well, in her own ad, Paris Hilton fires back at McCain, with a voiceover that says, “He’s the oldest celebrity in the world. Like… super old. Old enough to remember when dancing was a sin, and beer was served in a bucket. But… is he ready to lead?”

Then Paris appears, smiling warmly from a poolside loungechair and wearing a leopard-print bathing suit, and says saucily, “I want America to know that I’m like, totally ready to lead.”

“That wrinkly, white-haired guy used me in his campaign ad, which I guess means I’m running for president. So thanks for the endorsement white-haired dude.”

Then in a single sentence, she offers her own energy policy, calling it “a hybrid” of McCain’s and Obama’s energy policies: “Energy crisis solved!”

The video is classic Warhol-like Paris. Check it out.

Hilton has often been called a celebrity just for being a celebrity. But, as her website happily points out, she has been a model, recorded an album, published a tongue-in-cheek autobiography, starred in a hit movie and TV show, and launched several business ventures. Oh, and she went to jail ever so briefly last year.

In response to her ad, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds says, “Paris Hilton might not be as big a celebrity as Barack Obama, but she obviously has a better energy plan.”

No response to that little jibe from Camp Obama — not yet, anyway.

The raw politics is getting rawer, ain’t it?

Barclay Palmer
AC360 Senior Producer

Presidential campaigns always get rough. But it’s an interesting moment when a former top advisor in both Republican and Democratic administrations, and a former campaign manager of one of the candidates, both criticize an attack ad by that candidate.

David Gergen, a senior advisor to presidents ranging from Nixon to Clinton, yesterday said McCain is using code words to paint Obama as “outside the mainstream” and “uppity.”

“There has been a very intentional effort to paint him as somebody outside the mainstream, other, ‘he’s not one of us,’” Gergen, an AC360 contributor, said on ABC’s This Week. “I think the McCain campaign has been scrupulous about not directly saying it, but it’s the subtext of this campaign. Everybody knows that…

“There are certain kinds of signals. As a native of the sourth, I can tell you, when you see this Charlton Heston ad, ‘The One,’ that’s code for, ‘he’s uppity, he ought to stay in his place.’ Everybody gets that who is from a southern background. We all understand that. When McCain comes out and starts talking about affirmative action, ‘I’m against quotas,’ we get what that’s about.”

On the same day, Mike Murphy, a GOP strategist who managed McCain’s 2000 Republican primary campaign, said McCain’s ad calling Obama “the biggest celebrity in the world” and comparing him to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton as “clumsy, juvenile, and a mistake.”

“I think it was a dumb ad,” Murphy said on Meet The Press. “”Not because it asked the question, ‘is Barack Obama ready for the job?’ That’s a very legitimate criticism, and I think Barack Obama made it a little bit worse by his stumbling response later…

“The problem is that McCain, McCain’s strategy has to hinge, in my view, on one thing: How does a Republican survive in October and November a huge anti-Republican vote?,” Murphy said. “Luckily for the party, McCain is a different kind of Republican. So everything in the campaign ought to build toward that case. And when you get off into the small juvenile stuff about Britney Spears, I think you distract from that.”

Paris Hilton’s own mother even weighed in, calling the ad showing pictures of Obama, Hilton and Spears “a complete waste of the money John McCain’s contributors donated to his campaign.”

Kathy Hilton, with her husband, donated $4600 to McCain’s campaign. But that ad, she wrote on the Huffington Post, was “a complete waste of the country’s time and attention when millions of people are losing their homes and their jobs. And it is a completely frivolous way to choose the next president of the United States.”

But does it work?

It’s certainly reminiscent of the aggressive one-upmanship played from high society to playgrounds the world over.
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Giant wind turbines are powered by strong prevailing winds near Palm Springs, California.

Barclay Palmer
AC360° Senior Producer

Good morning!!

How about a little reality check on the issue that Americans say concerns them most: the economy. And let’s drill down to its core: energy.

Everybody’s talking energy — President Bush is pushing Congress to act before it goes on vacation, each presidential candidate talks about it every day…

Why, even Al Gore and T. Boone Pickens are weighing in with urgent calls to develop independent, sustainable forms of energy… like Pickens’ proposal to quickly build windmills fields and let the clean wind power us, rather than burn up the rest of the fossile fuel so quickly…

So… what about that?

Why don’t we quickly build windmill fields on federal land — since everyone’s calling this an urgent national security issue.

And why aren’t the candidates and the President and the Congress even talking about that? A quick executive order — citing a national emergency — followed by a quick Congressional appropriation could get construction going before the end of the year.

Opening up offshore drilling, by contrast, wouldn’t increase actual oil supply for years, although advocates argue it would have a valuable psychological effect on markets and bring down oil prices.

Maybe.

But why not get some actual results more quickly — and get some cleaner energy and sustainability along with it?

Why not?

If you’re a committed offshore drilling advocate because you think it’ll drive down prices in the near term, why not add this kind of option to have an even greater psychological effect? It doesn’t have to be either/or. And political finger-pointing over offshore drilling ain’t gonna get us new energy right away anyhow.

If energy is an urgent matter of national security, we need a call to arms, right?

So why aren’t the President, the Congress and the candidates making an urgent call for these kind of measures — in addition to their other proposals?

Maybe this is why none of them are wildly popular among the public, as polls show, with Congress’s popularity ratings in the low 20s, President Bush’s only a little above that, and neither presidential candidate cracking 50%.

Hello. Warning signs.

President Bush makes a statement in the Rose Garden of the White House, Wednesday. Accompanied by members of his Cabinet Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Veterans Affairs Secretary James Peake, and Vice President Dick Cheney.

Barclay Palmer
AC360° Senior Producer

Good morning 360 friends!

Today, it’s all about the economy…of course…

President Bush talks energy and gas prices from the Rose Garden this morning, with his VP and Cabinet standing by him, prodding Congress to allow more offshore drilling, though experts debate whether that would cut gas prices anytime soon.

Congress is debating proposals to open up more drilling, as well as to crack down on speculators allegedly driving the energy market and the rest of us crazy. And it’s not yet clear whether it can pass a bill before going on vacation at the end of the week. Joe Johns is keeping them honest, reporting that story tonight.

Both presidential candidates are talking economic security.. John McCain starts the day speaking with workers at Wagner Equipment, a Colorado company focused on selling big Caterpillar equipment so crucial to the economy.

Barack Obama talks about economic security with Sen. Claire McCaskill at two town hall meetings in Missouri, before having a barbeque with 200+ supporters.

What do you think of their proposals?

Also tonight, Dana Bash’s travels with McCain’s woman on women — Carly Fiorina, a top McCain adviser and former CEO of Hewlett Packard — about her efforts to build stronger support among women, and to show her candidate is talking about issues that women care about. Is it working?

And then there’s the war. No, not that one.. but other war. U.S. losses in Afghanistan have spiked. Generals have asked for 10,000 more troops there, but that won’t happen while President Bush is still in office. Peter Bergen, who testified about it on the Hill this week, reports for us tonight.

Also, the US might have one of Al Qaeda’s top 10 leaders in an alleged attack on militants inside Pakistan this week. Under the nom de guerre al Masri, Peter reports this man of many names has led Qaeda’s biochem program. The attack marks a new aggressiveness with Pakistan..another sign of it: the NY Times today reports the CIA has confroned Pakistan with more evidence of links between its intelligence service and militants.

And back in the U.S., a flood of home video shows how shaken Californians were in yesterday’s 5.4 magnitude earthquake. Tonight, Ted Rowlands shows us some of that tape, plus animations of what the BIG ONE would look like, the earthquake of at least 7.0 that experts say is a near certainty in years to come.

We’d love to hear your thoughts about an of this and more. Thank you for joining us tonight at 10pm!

-Barclay

Obama headed into the office building of VP vetter Monday.

Barclay Palmer
360° Senior Producer

Good morning fellow globe watchers.. Let’s start with a pop quiz!

What’s the next big decision in the presidential race? What next step could affect leadership of the free world for years to come?

It’s that tried and true DC parlor game — the VP sweepstakes… Fun… but important, too!

The candidates and their “surrogates” have been sending out signals.. meeting with screening committees, appearing with potential running mates and dropping hints behind the scenes.

Today we see stories that Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has had “very serious” conversations with Sen. Obama about joining the ticket. And discreetly comes word that Camp Obama’s not thrilled with this little trial balloon.

What about Hillary Clinton, you might ask? Whispers it won’t be her…and the big issue remains, how to bring her followers into the Obama tent.

Tonight, we explore that and more with Suzanne Malveaux reporting, and Carl Bernstein and others analyzing.

Did someone mention sharks?
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Barclay Palmer
AC360° Senior Producer

Good morning 360ers!

Are the presidential candidates gradually, reluctantly beginning to agree on whether and when to pull out of Iraq… Is it just trying to gain political edge while acknowledging realities.. or could it be both?

Each candidate claims the other is moving his Iraq policy towards their own. The Obama camp points to McCain’s “pretty good timetable” comment to Wolf Blitzer. The McCain camp points to Obama’s “entirely conditions-based” statement to Newsweek.

The realities..and there are many…include Iraqi President al Maliki’s statements that a time frame that just happens to resemble Obama’s 16 months is about right.. oh, and the majority of U.S. voters wanting to get out of Iraq.. combined with the U.S. concern that the Iraqi military might not be up to holding the country together and keeping it independent from Iran.

Oh, and the U.S. hates the idea of walking away without winning a war, and wasting the precious lives of troops who fought it.

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US President John F. Kennedy delivers his famous speech ''I am a Berliner'' (''ich bin ein Berliner'' ) in front of the city hall in West Berlin concerning the Berlin Wall, June 26, 1963.

Barclay Palmer
AC360 Senior Producer
Good morning!! “Ich bin ein Berliner!”

With those words, nearly half a century ago, John F. Kennedy reassured Berliners, and Europe as a whole, that he would stand by them despite the Soviet Union’s erection of the Berlin Wall and its threatening clampdown on travel between East and West Berlin. The speech was one of the defining moments of the Cold War, expressing democracy’s defiance of the Kremlin’s totalitarian control.

Today, Barack Obama taps into that history with a speech in Berlin on the US-European relationship at the Victory Column before a crowd that Berlin authorities predict could reach a million people. Candy Crowley reports his campaign insists that it‘s not a political event, but adds that it could be the highlight of his trip abroad, and it has not ruled out using video in campaign ads.

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Jeff Denning, Former Air Marshal

Barclay Palmer
AC360° Senior Producer

We see the headline and our eyes glaze over. What could be more boring than the 7-year-old fight since 9/11 over how much power the government should have to monitor private communication in its efforts to fight terrorism? Without warrants, that is. (By the way, how hard is it to get a warrant from a terrorism-fearing judge? Some people wonder — why are politicians even fighting about this?)

Even the acronym bandied about in the news these days has no ring… no zing. FISA?? Couldn’t they think up one of those cool, secret-sounding three-letter acronyms, like FBI, CIA or NSA?
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