Erica Hill and Ali Velshi
AC360º

Ali Velshi | Bio
CNN Chief Business Correspondent

Despite the 4th biggest bankruptcy in US history, and the largest industrial bankruptcy ever, markets are up strongly.

The Dow started 2009 at 8776.39. It is close to that level now, nearly erasing ALL of this year's losses for the first time this year.

The S&P 500, which started the year at 903.25, is well above that level (although it has been on the plus side previously this year).

Program Note: Tune in tonight to hear more from Ali Velshi on AC360° at 10 p.m. ET.

Ali Velshi | Bio
CNN Chief Business Correspondent

It's down to the wire for GM.

The nation's biggest auto maker has until Monday to come up with a viable plan to save itself, or the government will force it into bankruptcy like it did Chrysler.

But the time probably doesn't matter.

GM's bond holders (the people who lent the company money) refused a deal to swap their debt for part ownership in the ailing company.

GM paid its hourly staff today, instead of Friday, and word is many suppliers have also been paid, paving the way for the company to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection before this week is out.

I'm on my way to a bar, ironically called "bamboozled" across from a GM plant in the Detroit suburb on Warren, to talk to workers about the fact that the end of their careers may be near.

Sadly, I have made this trip to Michigan too many times. I'm rarely here for good news.

The irony is that this trip WASN'T for the GM story; it was to go for a ride around the test track with Ford CEO Alan Mulally about his (somewhat successful) efforts to turn that company around. Right now, he's a bit of a shining light in Detroit.

We'll bring you parts of that discussion later this week.

Anderson Cooper and panelists discuss whether or not the economy is rebounding, despite the increase of unemployment.

Ali Velshi | Bio
CNN Chief Business Correspondent

539,000 US Jobs were lost in April, substantially better than the 590,000-600,000 that were expected.

Notably, that number is MUCH lower than March's 699,000 jobs lost. Some economists are suggestion that the worst for monthly job losses is now over.

5,700,000 people have lost their jobs since this recession began 18 months ago, in Dec '07.

13,700,000 Americans are unemployed now. That's the highest number of people unemployed since records started being kept in 1948.

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Ali Velshi | Bio
CNN Chief Business Correspondent

In a continuing trend of "less worse" economic news, Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2nd decreased by 34,000 from the previous week, to 601,000. This is the lowest it’s been since January, and lower that the 635,000 that analysts’ were expecting.

Still - continuing claims remain at a record high of 6,351,000. That's the number of people collecting unemployment insurance. More than that number are no longer collecting benefits, but are unemployed.

Also, General Motors reported a SIX BILLION dollar loss for the first quarter, continuing its march toward bankruptcy on June 1.

Add that to the budget stuff and anything we don't already know about stress tests (due out at 5pm) and we have a bunch of money-related news today.

All of the major stock averages have rebounded since hitting frightening lows earlier this year and experts are predicting an end to the recession soon.

But is the worst over? For more from Ali Velshi, check out his interview with CNN.com about what to expect.

Program Note: Tune in tonight for a full report from Ali Velshi on AC360° at 10 p.m. ET.

Ali Velshi | Bio
CNN Chief Business Correspondent

One of America’s most reliable economic forecasters says the current recession – the longest in half a century – will end this year, possibly as early as this summer.

Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), was one of the first to declare that the US was in a recession. Now he’s one of the first to say its ending. ECRI, he says, is the research group in the world that studies business cycle recessions and recoveries for a living, and has a near-perfect record of predicting. They do it by crunching various pieces of data and creating “leading indicators” which show where the economy is headed

The indicator that looks the furthest into the future actually started showing signs of future growth as early as last November, as the worst of the credit crisis started to ease. Another indicator, with a shorter lead-time into the future, started pointing toward growth in early December. Both indicators have showed steady growth since then and that, says Achuthan, is enough data for him to say this recession is ending. That’s because, over the last 75 years, when those indicators turn up, the recession ends within four months. No exceptions, says Achuthan.

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Program Note: Tune in to hear more from Ali Velshi tonight on AC360° at 10 p.m. ET.

Ali Velshi
CNN Chief Business Correspondent

On May 4th, The Administration will unveil the results of the “stress tests” that it is conducting on the country’s 19 largest financial institutions. The goal is to figure out – in the government’s worst-case scenario – how much MORE taxpayer money the government may have to put up to prevent a major collapse. The government is not likely to detail each bank’s financial position, for fear that new of an “unhealthy” bank could trigger a run on that bank by both investors and customers, thereby hastening its demise. But it IS likely to say something like “if unemployment were to increase dramatically, and home prices were to drop by a certain percent more, we’re likely to need this amount of money.”

Until the government finishes its tests, it’s not likely to even discuss taking back any of the big money that it has lent those big banks, despite the fact that many of them have reported profits for the first three months of this year, and say they WANT to give the money back. That could put $88 BILLION back into TARP’s coffers (right now the government has about $115 BILLION left of the $700 BILLION, and is counting on about $20 BILLION coming back.); money that can be used for other banks, preventing the administration from going back to a Congress without much of an appetite to lend more taxpayer money to Wall Street.

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Program Note: Tune in to hear more from Ali Velshi tonight on AC360° at 10 p.m. ET.

Ali Velshi
CNN Chief Business Correspondent

President Obama delivered a speech in which he outlined what the government is doing – and has done – to get out of this recession, which is now (I think) in its 17th month. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke said today that there are "tentative signs" that the economy's slide is slowing, but that a full recovery won't come until the financial sector stabilizes.

Markets are having a rough day, largely because of some economic indicators that show things aren’t all that rosy. Retail Sales for March, as measured by the government, were weaker than expected, after seeing what seemed to be an uptrend. And inflation continues to be lower, as consumer demand fails to pick up.

So where do we stand right now?

Banks are starting to show signs of life, but it may have something to do with the fact that they got low interest money from the government and got to loan it out at higher interest. TARP only has about $135 BILLION left (of $700 BILLION) and there’s no appetite on Capitol Hill to be giving Wall Street more money. BUT, a number of banks (Wells Fargo, Goldman) are talking about giving back their TARP money – this could end up adding $50-$100 BILLION to TARP. Still, we don’t know how this Treasury ‘Bank Plan’ is going to work.

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