Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives home Saturday after attending the U.N. General Assembly.

Octavia Nasr | BIO
AC360° Contributor
CNN Senior Editor, Mideast Affairs

How large is Iran’s nuclear ambition? How peaceful? The recent revelation about a clandestine uranium enrichment facility coupled with military exercises – not to mention a consistent defying rhetoric - can’t be comforting to anyone observing the Middle East region. Iran says its nuclear enrichment program is intended for peaceful purposes, but the international community accuses Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons.

In December 2005, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the Holocaust was a “myth” that Europeans invented as an excuse to allow the creation of the state of Israel. At the time, Mr. Ahmadinejad suggested that since the “Europeans are the ones who killed the Jews,” they should negotiate with the United States or Canada to give them portions of their land to establish a Jewish state.

Since that time and throughout his presidency, the Iranian President has reiterated the same line in many different variations and at different venues. As he addressed the United Nations General Assembly last week he said, “Countering this Zionist regime is a humanitarian principle. In fact the existence of the Zionist regime is an insult to human dignity. They try to support their myth of Holocaust, they lie.”

Mr. Ahmadinejad is set to serve a second four year term as President of Iran. His victory was challenged by street protests and outcries of dismay accusing him of “stealing the vote.” Despite all of that, and in total disregard of the crowds of Iranians denouncing him outside the UN Headquarters in New York, he spoke to the general assembly with confidence, “Our nation has successfully gone through a glorious and fully democratic election, opening a new chapter for our country in the march toward national progress and enhance international interactions. They entrusted me, once more the large majority, with this heavy responsibility.”

A heavy responsibility that he ushered in with some explosive developments: First, the shocking announcement about the Uranium enrichment facility. This drew harsh condemnation from the U.S., France and Great Britain and threats of sanctions if Iran doesn’t disclose all of its nuclear plans by December.

Then, in a show of force over the weekend, Iran test-fired long-range missiles it claims can reach as far as parts of Europe. What were supposed to be routine “war games” by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, turned out to be full-fledged missile and rocket tests. The news of the successful test-launch rattled the Middle East region and got many nations on edge, Israel in particular.

The timing couldn’t be more symbolic. On Monday, the same day as Yom Kippur – the holiest holiday in the Jewish calendar – Iran held a series of short-range missile tests followed by the testing of Shahab-3 and Sajil missiles – both long range missiles that Iran claims can reach as far as Moscow, Athens and southern Italy. Iran’s air force commander hailed the exercises and boasted that “Iran is fully prepared and determined to stand against all threats.”

It’s hard to pin down the “threats” the commander is talking about. Could they be “threats” posed by neighboring countries? Regional powers? Western forces? It’s difficult to to say for sure; but what we do know is that earlier this year, Iranian authorities announced that they would be testing long-range missiles that “will reach Israel and US bases in the Middle East.” This kind of statement makes people in many countries nervous. Not just Israel and the U.S., but nations such as Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, which are all hosts to US bases in the region.

It is possible that Iran’s behavior so far is what got it to sit at the table in Geneva today with the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany. Would such a meeting have taken place if Iran didn’t push forth with its nuclear program? The U.S. hopes to convince Iran to halt its nuclear activities. Is it even reasonable to make this request at this time? More importantly, is it reasonable to expect Iran to comply?

Paul Ingram is the executive director of the British American Security Information Council in London; he studies Iran and nuclear nonproliferation. He believes Iran's revelation of the new site could "strengthen their hand" as Tehran heads into the Geneva talks. Ingram said the timing of Iran's revelation - inbetween the U.N. General Assembly sessions and today’s meeting - is deliberate on Iran's part. "This will make it more difficult to persuade them to abandon enrichment," he said.

All eyes are on Geneva to see what if anything will come out of those talks. Some words will certainly fly – such as demands for “unfettered access” to Iran’s nuclear facilities and its newly declared Uranium enrichment plant. As always, what will matter more than the words, the sanctions and the threats, will be what Iran does or does not do after all is said and done. And that, we already know by now, is impossible to guess.

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