Reporter's Note: Each day I write a letter to President Barack Obama. I’ve done it, without fail, since the inauguration.

Tom Foreman | Bio
AC360° Correspondent

Dear Mr. President,

Just as I predicted, you may have noticed that the Iranians…or rather I should say “some” Iranians…are blaming us for the troubles over there. No surprise, I suppose. I know that we have not always had the best foreign policy, I know that we have made mistakes, but I also know the United States has often been the favorite scapegoat of political leaders elsewhere who get themselves into trouble.

I can’t even pretend to understand all the cross currents at work over there right now. An Iranian acquaintance was trying to explain a lot of it to me, but it was filled with so many alliances, and hidden alliances, and old grudges, and on and on, that I had a hard time keeping up. The main message, however, I got: Iranians themselves think this could be something big. Something bigger than just an election. Something more like the winds of revolution.

I suspect that kind of talk makes leaders all over the world at least a little uneasy, even if they support any given cause that leads to revolution anywhere. Because revolutions, our own American one included, can be messy, violent, and unpredictable affairs.

When I’ve read histories of these earth shaking changes, whether here, or in Russia, or in Cuba, or in China, I am struck by the huge role of sheer “chance” in such matters. The right leader in the right place at the right time. Or the wrong leader in the wrong place at the wrong time. Or a million permutations of everything in between. All can wind up producing a government, a society, and a nation that no one fully imagined or expected.

What does all this mean for you? Only this: Just like your economic plans during the campaign have been largely turned upside down by the realities of our economy since the election, I suspect you and your team will have to do some serious retrenching on your foreign policy goals too. It’s not just Iran. North Korea. Iraq. Afghanistan. Cuba. China. Europe. You ran on the idea of change, but frankly I think change was coming to the whole world anyway in a manner of speaking, and now we all have to hold on tight, adapt quickly to whatever comes, and hope we react properly.

I’m not so sure the marching in the streets of Iran is anywhere near over; and I’m wondering now where and when other streets in other places will fill with unrest.

Like they used to say on an old cop show, “Be careful out there.” And call when you can.

Regards,
Tom

Find more of the Foreman Letters, here.