The U.S. and Iran talking – or just talking tough?

Iranian journalists toured the nuclear facility in February.

Elise Labott
CNN State Department Producer

Is the U.S. invitation to join talks over Iran’s nuclear ambitions backfiring? Diplomats and journalists around the world are weighing that question. Yesterday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad boasted on national TV of new nuclear achievements, including the testing of 7,000 new centrifuges whose capacity is “several times greater” than existing ones. Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium.

The  invitation to join talks over Tehran’s nuclear program was the latest in a series of overtures by the Obama administration, which has promised more “engagement,” including President Obama’s New Year’s message to the Iranian people. Those who watch Iran closely say the response by spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamanei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has actually conciliatory. They argue the regime is actually flirting with the U.S. overtures and opening the door for talks.

One of the reasons for that is the sorry state of the Iranian economy. The global economic crisis, coupled with declining oil prices and financial sanctions have made the regime vulnerable. Iranian anger over the economy is at a slow boil and the regime needs to get on America’s good side to lift the sanctions and get its economic house in order.

Iran experts like Abbas Milani of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University argue that when Iran does decide to come back to the table, it will be transformative, simply because the rules of the game have changed. After years of demanding Iran to end its quest to enrich uranium, that pre-condition is now being downplayed. The West seems to have come around to Iran’s way of thinking that enrichment is their right. President Obama said as much recently when he told Iran the international community appreciates its right to peaceful nuclear energy within the non-proliferation treaty. The Europeans have also acknowledged that when a country has a cascade of 4,000 spinning centrifuges and is ably making preparations for a total of 50,000, it’s going to be pretty darn hard to stop them.

Iran has followed the North Korean example closely. It was clear to the world about its intention to enrich uranium. While the U.S. and its partners spent the last four years arguing on how to get Iran to stop its enrichment program, Tehran continued to develop its enrichment. It’s close to a fait d’accompli.

Iran can say it never bended to the West, but rather the international community has come around its point of view. And now it can come to the table and negotiate. Stopping Iran from enriching may not be on the table, but perhaps Iran can be deterred from developing a nuclear bomb. It can possibly be convinced to work within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and adhere to rigorous monitoring.

The invite to Iran to rejoin talks is being accompanied by other outreach by the U.S. Iran was invited to several international meetings on Afghanistan. There is also talk in administration circles about allowing U.S. diplomats around the world to interact with their Iranian counterparts around the world and setting up a U.S. interests section in Iran.

Each of these gestures are incremental. Together they could add up to a game changing situation which could have a concrete effect on the campaign to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.