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Gary Berntsen
Former CIA Officer

Surprising not one person in America, fugitive Al Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden has released an audio tape to coincide with the Inauguration of President-Elect Barack Obama. It includes a call across the Middle East for support to the Palestinians in Gaza as well as pronouncements of political and economic doom for America.

Bin Laden made no mention that just a week ago two of his top operatives, Usama al Kini and Sheikh Ahmad Salim Swedan—both Kenyan Nationals who participated in the East Africa attacks in 1998 and then in the Marriot Hotel bombing in Pakistan last year—had been hunted down and killed by a U.S. strike while attempting to conceal themselves in Southern Waziristan. Nor was there mention that during Bin Laden’s seven year long camping trip (that began with his escape from Afghanistan in 2001) an array of other groups have eclipsed Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda in influence, money and operational tempo. Groups like Lashkar-e Taiba (LeT) and the Taliban have as organizational goals the establishment of Islamic States in Kashmir and Afghanistan, respectively. They pursue their own agendas. Groups like the Haqqani Network and Hizb-e Islami Ghulbadin (HIG) are merely the action arms of the men that lead them and have only regional appeal.

Having been smashed by CIA and coalition forces during the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and then hunted non-stop in Pakistan by Pakistani and U.S. intelligence, Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda has been reduced to attaching his operatives to disparate groups that fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan or operate alongside Pakistani militant organizations that seek to destabilize the central government of Pakistan. Bin Laden’s role has changed from one of leading the world’s largest terrorist enterprise to one of hiding as a lonely fugitive with a camcorder.

Despite not having captured Bin Laden, the outgoing administration has correctly taken credit for successfully deterring additional catastrophic attacks on the U.S. mainland. The incoming Obama administration would be wise to recognize that Bin Laden and Al Qaeda’s diminishment occurred because of constant application of aggressive operational initiatives and not as some inevitable result. If the incoming administration fails to exercise itself aggressively against Bin Laden and Al Qaeda, the group’s return to an operational relevance will be inevitable and the consequences significant.

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