John P. Avlon
AC360° Contributor

Predictions for 2009:

1) Pop-Culture President: America hasn't seen a truly pop-culture president since the Kennedy Camelot years – and after the historic unpopularity of President Bush in his second term, the shift to the Obama phenomenon in the White House is likely to be especially jarring for the GOP. Obama's actions won't just be covered in Time or Newsweek, they'll be covered in People and Rolling Stone as well. That's a good thing in terms of getting more Americans civically engaged. But it will be a key reason that any Republican attempts to pursue a simply obstructionist "No-Bama" strategy will fail. Obama's approval ratings won't remain sky-high for the course of his presidency, but he will connect personally with the American people in a way that Bush never did.

2) The New New Deal: The first action out of the Obama administration will be a $700 billion stimulus and infrastructure investment plan to jumpstart the economy – the largest public works project since the New Deal. The Obama administration can any mitigate any "big-government-boondoggle" stigma by transparently tracking expenditures on-line at sites like www.USAspending.gov. But the appetite for bailout dollars will continue, with more companies and industries looking for their share. An epidemic of towns and cities declaring bankruptcy in 2009 – following the lead of Vallejo, California – will force states across the nation to beg Washington for a bailout of their own, or see their bonds reduced to junk and deficits balloon.

3) Taxpayer Bailout Backlash: By the end of 2009, taxpayer bailout backlash will be in full swing. Right now, everyone in Congress is a born-again Keynesian – there doesn't seem to be a deficit-hawk left in DC. But as our debt and deficit piles up, the common sense fiscal responsibility of the American people will kick in. Our politics over the past decade have ignored the concept of generational responsibility, but the bill is coming due. The baby boomers' retirement and consequent escalating entitlement spending will only compound the economic perfect storm. The Obama administration can and should anticipate this backlash, otherwise it could lay the foundation for the Republicans' eventual return. Neither party has moral authority on fiscal responsibility any more – who gains hold of this jump ball will help determine the shape of our politics for years to come.

John P. Avlon is author of "Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics."