Jill Dougherty | Bio
U.S. Affairs Correspondent
What does the Russian leadership really think about Barack Obama? At the start of a day-long conference in Washington, D.C. on Russia-U.S. relations I pull aside a friend, a Moscow political analyst. Some Russians are intrigued by Obama, he tells me, surprised by his win, but ultimately they think Obama’s policy on Russia won’t be that different from George W. Bush’s. The “Washington establishment,” they believe, is just too strong.
The experts gathered here by the American Enterprise Institute are Russian, American, Western European and Eastern European. They advise presidents, presidential candidates, prime ministers. Many of them have spent significant time in Russia. They live and breathe Russia. Few of them are optimistic.
“Integrating Russia into the West on the West’s terms is dead,” says Thomas Graham of Kissinger Associates. Barack Obama needs a new goal, in Graham’s opinion, but it won’t be easy. The world is now in a “period of great uncertainty of unknown duration,” Graham says. There is a new global equilibrium resulting from the end of the Cold War but it’s notable how little this influences our ideas on Russia, Graham says: “It’s still a “zero-sum, Cold War paradigm.”
How did that happen?
Andrei Kortunov of the New Eurasia Foundation says “we destroyed the old foundations of the relationship and have not built new ones.” The two countries’ visions used to be compatible, he says: a linear movement toward a market economy but Russia’s vision has “changed dramatically.” Moscow’s leaders no longer believe a market economy and liberal democracy offer solutions to current problems. Trust is low on both sides and it cuts across political groups and social strata, Kortunov says. Other experts here put it more bluntly: throughout Russian society the U.S. now is perceived as “the enemy.” Vladimir Putin has a “narrative of grievance,” says another expert. “We’re back and if you don’t like it – tough!”
Barack Obama faced his first challenge from Russia just the day after he was elected; Russian president Dmitry Medvedev announcing that Moscow will station missiles on its western European border if the U.S. carries out its plans to build a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech republic. There could be more to come: Russia’s attempts to create a sphere of influence or, as they call it, “privileged interests” in the former republics and satellites of the Soviet Union; Moscow’s efforts to establish a monopoly in Caspian Sea oil; the Russian leadership’s furious reaction to the United States’ desire to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO; tweaking the U.S. by holding joint military maneuvers with Venezuela in the Caribbean. As one expert puts it “Obama’s challenge is not only defining what Russia wants but what Russia will do next.”
Is there any light at the end of the tunnel? For these experts, at most, it’s just a glimmer. It’s hard to re-think a relationship; much easier to slip back into the crusty but comfortable old-think of the Cold War. But with a new administration in Washington and a relatively new president in Russia there are possibilities, they say. Ironically, the world economic crisis could help both countries to shift focus from their differences to their common interests.
| Joanne in Ontario Canada |
November 19th, 2008 9:37 am ET Russia can flip flop all they want regarding their opinion of Obama, but Russia had better put on their armored suits, because when Barack Obama takes power the Russions won't know what hit them. Canadians for Obama! |
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| Annie Kate |
November 19th, 2008 9:53 am ET I think the Russians will find that Obama will give them a fairer shake and a more open ear than any of our recent presidents. If Russia comes to the table willing to begin a friendship with the US I think Obama will respond in kind. Annie Kate |
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| Sergei Daghlovsky |
November 19th, 2008 10:30 am ET It's a catch-22 situation where the Americans refuse to budge unless the Russians make a conciliatory gesture first. In a situation where 'who blinks first' loses, neither party wins. I hope that the Obama administration will go beyond mere rhetoric and engage in real diplomacy with the Russians. Neither party should expect the other to be the 'weaker party'. That's what the Russians and Americans both detest immensely. The only possible outcome of such an attitude would be a continual deadlock and instability for the region. |
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| earle,florida |
November 19th, 2008 12:21 pm ET The Russian people are brillant, and very adaptable,and have been very co-operative in the past 10-20 years. But, when the US says that the Non- Nuclear Proliferation Treaty two/three years ago is now null-n-void to a country that has followed, and played by the rules is a bit of a stretch/shocker! Also the US selling nuclear supplements to India ,a country who adamently refused to stop their nuclear program was a slap in the face(six months ago). But ,to say that Russia provoked the recent war in Georgia ,was the final straw. Finally, you can't blame the Russian's for their ill-feeling towards the US sincereity in placing nuclear-head missles on their satillite borders with such a lame excuse by the Bush Administration? This should be a No-Brainer for Obama to patch-up relationships with a country," that really has fondly embraced democracy". |
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| Bev |
November 19th, 2008 12:49 pm ET I have absolutely no worries about Obama handling foreign affair matters. At least we know he won't send our soldiers, sailors and Marines into harm's way on a trumped excuse. |
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| Joanne, Syracuse, NY |
November 19th, 2008 2:34 pm ET Putin is the same brand of communist as he always purported to be. When Bush looked into his eyes, he should have seen the lust for power ..and the university students are militant and behind his brand of SS power. The bottom line with Russia is now oil....look at their bordering countries...and question, are they taking part in the anti-American issues on Russia's borders? in South America? |
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| Andy, Kazakhstan |
November 19th, 2008 3:26 pm ET Russia is facing a very deep economic crisis, much much worse than that in the US or Europe. Mostly due to the policies that Putin's government exercised during the past 8 years, which include intimidating and blackmailing the business community, illegal redistribution of wealth, creating a massive corrupt system of government that hinders healthy economic growth. The only reason Russian economy hasn't collapsed yet is that the oil prices were extremely high during all of Putin's years in power. If oil and commodity prices keep going down (which is the most likely scenario), many large companies will face bankruptcy or have to cut production. There will be massive lay-offs, high inflation and what not.. This can lead to social unrest and the current government can't provide an appropriate response. If however the Russians have somebody else to focus their anger on, it might just help Putin/Medvedev avoid or at least postpone disaster. Medvedev has already laid all the blame for the ongoing financial crisis on US in his last national address and is prepared to act agressively at the first opportunity. If the US president is not careful enough, he will trigger the escalation of animosity and rekindle the armament drive. Thanks to Bush's foreign policies, it was quite easy for Putin to portray the US as the Evil Empire. Russians are terribly lucky that McCain lost – he would certainly restart the cold war. I beleive Obama can turn things around. If he manages to persuade the Russian people that America is not an enemy, Medvedev will have to find ways to deal with the domestic problems in a new way and initiate a real domocratic reform. It might just so happen that Obama will bring change to Russian politics as well. |
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