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November 3, 2008
These 6 swing counties could decide the election
Posted: 11:42 AM ET
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John McCain holds a campaign rally in Ohio on Friday, part of a two-day bus tour through the crucial swing state.
John McCain holds a campaign rally in Ohio on Friday, part of a two-day bus tour through the crucial swing state.

John P. Avlon
AC360° contributor

“All elections are about how independent voters break,” attests Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. And with less than 4 days left in election ‘08, all eyes are on these swing voters in the swing states – they hold the key to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in their hands.

But where do they live – what are the swing counties in the swing states and how have those areas been trending? Armed with 20 years of presidential election data, I set out to nerd-ishly answer that question and found the top 6 swing counties in the top 6 swing states. Each of these states have multiple counties with close votes – I’ve chosen the swing county with the most votes. Think of it as an election night cheat sheet, moving from east to west, as the polls close and the next president gets elected.

Florida – Pinellas County:

With the scars of 2000 still fresh in Democrats’ minds, Florida remains the biggest swing state, with 2.3 million independent voters and 27 electoral votes – equal to Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada and New Mexico combined.

There are 3 counties in the sunshine state where Bush and Kerry split the vote 49/49 – Monroe, Orange and Pinellas. But the largest of these is Pinellas, which split the vote 225,686 to 225,460 – giving a 226 vote edge to Kerry. By comparison, across Tampa Bay, CentCom’s home of Hillsborough County went 53 to 46 percent for Bush. Gore won Pinellas by 4% in 2000, and Clinton cleaned up with a 9-point lead in ‘96. But when Perot ran in 1992, he got 24%, leaving Bush 1 and Clinton almost tied at 37% each. It was a fall from grace for Poppy, who beat Dukakis by 14% just 4 years before. Pinellas has been represented by Republican Bill Young since 1970, making him the most senior GOP member of the House. The verdict: even with the aging population of St. Pete and its popular pragmatic conservative mayor Rick Baker, the county’s been moving away from the GOP tortoise-like for the past 20 years. With Florida housing prices in free-fall and the Tampa Bay Rays losing the World Series to the Phillies, there is little patience for the status quo in St. Pete: it’s advantage Obama.

Virginia – Prince William County:

The fact that the Old Dominion is even on this list of swing states is remarkable. That it’s taken the place of Michigan, whose Macomb County has been the subject of countless studies of Reagan Democrats, is a bad sign for the McCain campaign. The Obama campaign had the audacity of hope to target Virginia early, beginning voter registration drives before the primary, which he won decisively, beating Hillary by 2 to 1 among self-identified Independents (VA does not register voters by party). The prime swing county in Virginia is Prince William, on the southern edge of Northern Virginia – or, “communist country” as McCain’s brother described it. This is the battlefront where north meets south, white meets black and increasingly Latino. It’s the 9th wealthiest county in the country, with a population of 360,000, in a state that hasn’t voted Democrat since LBJ. It’s still got a lot of military folks, but college students now outnumber white senior citizens 2 to 1. And while Bush carried Prince William County by 52% in 2000 and 53% in 2004, it’s swung toward Democratic Governor Tim Kaine and Senator Jim Webb in ‘05 and ‘06. With the second highest number of new voters registered in the state, and the down-ticket bump from radical centrist Mark Warner should help Obama narrowly win this Civil War battleground. Advantage: Obama.

Pennsylvania – Northampton County:

McCain has been playing hard for Pennsylvania and is closing the gap enough so that Governor Ed Rendell asked the Obama team to come back and campaign. No Republican has won the Keystone State since 1988, but it’s been reliably close. Conservative Senator Rick Santorum was tossed out in ‘06 in favor of centrist Democrat Bob Casey. Philadelphia votes reliably Democrat and the western part of the state tends Republican. The fighting ground is the Philly suburbs and exburbs, where neighboring Monroe and Northampton counties are. Monroe split its vote 49.6 to 49.6 in 2004, giving Bush a 4 vote edge when all was counted. The more populous Northampton gave Kerry a 1% and 1,000 vote edge. Gore won Northampton by 5.5% and Clinton with 9% in ‘96. But Perot got 20% in ‘92 and Bush 1 beat the Duke by 4 points in 1988. Represented by centrist Republican Charlie Dent in the 15th District, seems to have been trending Republican. This is a rare bright swing county for the GOP – advantage McCain.

Ohio – Stark County:

No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. It’s the heartland, “the home of presidents” from Hayes to Harding. It’s littered with swing districts from the Mahoning Valley to Hamilton to Montgomery County. It’s also the home of the Football Hall of Fame, in Canton, and it’s there in Stark County that we find the biggest swing county with the narrowest margins in the Buckeye State (and the home county of Karl Rove’s second favorite president, William McKinley). In 2000, it barely broke for Kerry, 50.5 to 49% – 95k to 93k. But Bush beat Gore there by 1% in 2000. Clinton carried it by 8% in ‘96 and 5 in ‘92, but Poppy clobbered Dukakis by 11% in 1988. It’s in the 16th District of Ohio, represented by Republican Ralph Regula since the Nixon landslide of 1972. But in 2006, Governor Ted Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown won the county with 64% and 57% respectively. With manufacturing feeling an even deeper squeeze with the economic freefall, and declining GOP margins, it’s advantage Obama.

Missouri – Jefferson County:

Home of Harry Truman, the “Show Me” state is a center-right bell-weather in the center of the country. Democrats put a lot into it in 2004 only to come up short as Republican Congressman Roy Blunt’s son was elected governor. Now the junior Blunt is not running for re-election, and the state is a true toss-up. The RealClear Politics poll of polls gives Obama a .2% advantage – the closest in the nation. In 2000, Missouri’s Clay County symbolized the nation, when a single vote split Bush v. Gore – 39,083 to 39,084. In 2004, three counties split the Bush/Kerry vote 49/49 – Boone, Pemiscot and Jefferson – and the largest of these is Jefferson, on the outskirts of St. Louis. Back in 1980, it was the geographic center of the country in terms of population. It is also the most conservative county in the state’s 3rd District, represented by Dick Gephardt for decades and now by the son of a former governor and senator, Russ Carnahan.
In 2004, Bush won the county closely, 46,624 to 46,057. The county edged 2% for Gore in 2000 and 12% for Clinton in ‘96. But in 1992 it gave then-President Bush one his worst defeats with 28% of the vote, down from 51% four years earlier. Carnahan will likely run ahead of Obama in 2008, but this will be a squeeker – it’s a toss-up.

Colorado – Arapahoe County:

Well, it’s come to this – a western conservative ticket fighting for the Rocky Mountain State. The reason? Independent voters passed Republicans and Democrats as the leading registration in Colorado earlier this summer. There are now over 1 million independents, up from 645,000 in 1992, making 34.6% of the total vote.

This shift helped bring in a Democratic governor and senator in recent years. And the key swing district to watch is Arapahoe – southeast of Denver, where liberal Congresswoman Diana Degette’s district slams up against the departing conservative Tom Tancredo’s. Historically Republican-leaning going back to Wilkie in 1940, Arapahoe is a now the chief battleground county in this battleground-state. While the population has grown nearly 10% since the 2000 census, the GOP has been losing its registration edge, down from 37% in 2004 (when Bush won the county) to 33% today, while Democrats increased from 29% to 34% – the remaining third is independent. “The upscale neighborhoods and the surburbanite folks with a good education who used to be the backbone of the Republican Party are now moving toward the Democrats and so are their children,” says Colorado College political science professor Bob Loevy. “You are seeing that in Arapahoe.”

So is there an overall trend that’s evident in looking at these swing counties in swing states across the nation? Yes, they’ve been trending steadily less Republican since the GOP high-water mark of Reagan’s 49-state win in 1984. Clinton’s centrism swayed them while Bush has divided them.

There is evidence of a slow-moving realignment. And this should be troubling for Republicans because the less rural and more populated these areas get, the more diverse and urban they become, the less likely they are to vote Republican. That is not to say that an excessively liberal congress would not push them back toward the GOP, especially on tax-and-spend issues, but it does say that the Sarah Palin formulation of basing the future on appeals to white, small town America is a long-term loser.

63 Comments
More about: 2008 Election •  360° Radar •  Barack Obama •  John McCain •  John P. Avlon
63 Comments
James J. Mangold   November 3rd, 2008 1:51 pm ET

I like a lot of americans are afraid that some how Karl Rove & company will steal their third straight presidential election. I am not sure if the american people can accept something like that. I am really depending on CNN to keep them honest and report the facts the way they are. Thank you for all the hard work you do.

Nat   November 3rd, 2008 1:54 pm ET

As a student and member of the College Democrats at Lafayette College in Northampton County, I think it’s important to note the massive Get Out the Vote campaign that we have had in registering about 700 voters on campus since last fall (over 25% of our student body), the overwhelming majority of which plan to vote Obama. This is to say nothing of the incredible effort by the local volunteer organization to register a huge number of new voters and recruit unprecedented numbers of volunteers. John McCain’s ground campaign in the county, by comparison, has been sorely lacking.

Jackie in Dallas   November 3rd, 2008 1:59 pm ET

“…it does say that the Sarah Palin formulation of basing the future on appeals to white, small town America is a long-term loser…”

As well it should. This country IS diversity. Those of us in big cities contribute much more, in financial terms, than those little rural areas, and we aren’t getting farm subsidies. Instead, we are getting across the board cuts in essential services, reduced support of our infrastructures of roads and bridges, and our sons and daughters represent as many if not more of those who are fighting, dying, or being maimed either in Iraq, Afghanistan, or our inner cities. Yet Sarah Palin can call us anti-American because we don’t fall for her divisive, radical, and bigoted viewpoints. I’m a VietNam era vet, yet I get called dishonorable or un-American because I don’t support her policies (those that she has, anyway). It is this polarizing viewpoint of her’s that is fueling that “slow-moving realignment” and making it move faster. The sooner the Republican Party realizes that intelligence is good, and that minorities (including women, racial minorities, and those whose beliefs differ from theirs) deserve the same representation and respect as the old-line Republican supporters, the sooner that they will start regaining and rebuilding.

Tom   November 3rd, 2008 2:06 pm ET

If the idiots in Ohio and Florida lead us into another Election of 2000, I say we vastly reduce their electral votes. Obviously they are not mature enough to handle an election. If it happens once, I can maybe understand, but there is a pattern growing here and the consquences are too high for the rest of us.

PS- Ohio, if you vote for McCain, you will not get any sympathy from the the rest of us when you whine and cry about how bad things are and will get under McCain and Palin. You reap what you have sown.

Marylou South Carolina   November 3rd, 2008 2:07 pm ET

This is a great example of why everyone needs to GET OUT TO VOTE.
Go OBAMA

Joe the Boxer   November 3rd, 2008 2:18 pm ET

Anderson,
most of the facts you mention are true. However, in the bigger scheme of things, you have a new generation of voters who respond in the ballot booth to the “actions” of any particular party who’s previously been in office. A more free market and less taxes for the wealthy does not represent prosperity for our country. It represents higher deficits and bad economies. This is the end of this popularity with a delusional ideology. Even with a cut in spending, a staggering deficit cripples any nation’s economy. Much the same as a person with huge credit card debt who stops eating out and going to malls. The interest of your debt would “kill your budget”. It’s the same with a nation. This is more than a change in trends. It’s a realization the Republican argument about lower taxes is “hog wash” to the middle class……and there will always be more of us than them……

Craig in Illinois   November 3rd, 2008 2:23 pm ET

I live across the river from St.Louis and if it’s up to the people in Jefferson County to decide the fate of Missouri that will be close. Because you have a lot of union workers who work in St. Louis and a lot hunters who are brainwashed by the NRA.

mireille juste   November 3rd, 2008 2:23 pm ET

I’ve been watching the presidential election up close, and let me just say that it’s been a sad journey. We had come so far as a nation as far as race relations to see the damage that the McCain and Palin’s team is doing to all that work; with their divisive ads and the rage I see in their supporters faces at town hall gatherings, hatred in their voices, all because of the anti-american undertone comments from both McCain and Palin. America the Beautiful, home of immigrants, is hurting; it’s people are begging for a cure, yet the politicians are playing politics. Hope is all we have left and I will not give it up. Take away my house, my car, my job, take it all and I will rise again because I am an American and I have Hope; in America if you work hard and you believe, you will succeed. A vote for hope is a vote for success.
·
· GOD BLESS AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE AND HOME OF THE BRAVE.
·

Betty, Virginia   November 3rd, 2008 2:34 pm ET

Yep… here in Prince William County we’re going blue. Of course, we’re communist, non-real, unpro-american depending on which pro McCain campaign (okay his brother called us communist) person you talk to.

VIRGINIA’S GOING BLUE WOO HOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HEY FOLKS IN OUR SISTER STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA… JOIN US IN GOING BLUE TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Katherine Dedrick   November 3rd, 2008 2:39 pm ET

I live in Canada and am a registered voter in Maryland…never received my Absentee Ballot for this general election…was planning to vote for Obama…

JEFFERSON COUNTY MO -Registered voter   November 3rd, 2008 2:48 pm ET

We are working our butts off to help swing this for Obama!!!!!!!!! I think it’s working. I have my entire house decked out for Obama!!!! I have my neighbors out there fighting to get out the vote today as well.

RealVote   November 3rd, 2008 2:50 pm ET

Cool Analysis and I guess this year lot more counties will go Blue that Bush made total Red 4 years.

George   November 3rd, 2008 2:51 pm ET

This is your last chance to go Clinton’s way or Bush’s way. Obama will return economy to the Clinton era, but with improvement. McCain will bring the same as last eight years and it will get worse. If you like where we are now or don’t mind another crisis, McCain/Palin are your candidates. If you’re like most Americans who are sick of all these lies and unethical politics, Obama/Biden are our only hope…

Jason (Manassas, Va)   November 3rd, 2008 2:58 pm ET

Virginia is marching on! Obama is due here in Manassas at 9pm for a street rally. I stand ready as an Independent to vote Obama/Biden. I was originally going to vote for McCain but when McCain sold his soul to the devil and then brought in Palin that was that. I firmly believe that Obama is more in touch with us here in Northern Virginia and will guide not only the state but the country to a brighter future!

Ray, Calif   November 3rd, 2008 3:02 pm ET

Hey Anderson, will the media get it right this time? Last election cycle the media called the race too soon? If the media does that again some people would call that voter suppression? How about the media just reporting this time since using exit polls could try to sway the voting results? The polls have been all over the place this election cycle. I live on the west coast and it can be discouraging to some if the election is called before we even vote!! I will vote no mater what the polls say, but some votes might be suppressed if the election is called early…wink wink…
cc. Fox News

SFSerg   November 3rd, 2008 3:26 pm ET

Obama needs to win by a blowout to prevent Karl Rove and the GOP from stealing this election. It’s very likely that if it’s close in any way, our worst nightmare will become a reality with McCain and Palin being the next President and Vice President.

Carson - Austin Texas   November 3rd, 2008 3:27 pm ET

AMEN – Jackie in Dallas, you hit the nail on the head!!!

Bob (Ohio)   November 3rd, 2008 3:28 pm ET

The media today depends entirely too much on poll data, exit or otherwise. How they derive that 600 people represent the likes of 140 million is beyond me. I, nor anyone I know have ever been questioned by a pollster. Let the “chips fall where they may” and stay out of it until election night.

Mr.Cowherd   November 3rd, 2008 4:06 pm ET

Obama will be here in Charlotte at 5:30 today. A first for North Carolina, in my lifetime, to be a battleground state! All the visits are unprecedented. I have allegiance to McCain and his service, God fearing, country loving, Regan GOP. Obama’s fresh start, big change one government union is also needed. Can’t make up my mind! Governor’s race hands down= Pat McCrory.

Karim   November 3rd, 2008 4:11 pm ET

This is America, not a third world country with a incumbent dictator. I am tired of vote stealing. Lets make sure that this time our vote can’t be stolen. Make history and give Barack Obama a chance to lead this great nation.

Lauren   November 3rd, 2008 4:13 pm ET

Hey Anderson.
Many red states are going blue and I couldn’t be happier! I live in Tallahassee, FL in Leon county which is a heavily democratic county. However, I think the whole state of Florida is going democratic this election! Nevertheless, we’re all going to be up late tomorrow night.

OBAMA/BIDEN ‘08!

Helen Franklin   November 3rd, 2008 4:19 pm ET

I plan to vote for Obama because I believe he and Biden can bring about the change we deserve and need while McCain is caught up in praising his military service over and over. My brother-in- law died fighting in vietnam and I believe he deserves my continued remembrance and respect as do all the others who gave their lives for our country no matter where they fought.McCain knows his age and illness will not keep him here much longer, so he wants to turn our country over to someone like Palin. No Thanks!!Vote Obama!!!

Ray from FL   November 3rd, 2008 4:20 pm ET

Anderson great job, you are more balanced and fair than any and I have become a trasnsferrrrrr from that other station of balance and fair who have lost their way. Thank you for the new touch and keep up the good work and your ratings will soar like an Egale.

chelleanne2   November 3rd, 2008 4:20 pm ET

Okay, all you Obama supporters, I hope you make lots of money so Obama and can take it from you and give it to me. I’m looking forward to that big fat tax credit or check next year. And since the income level keeps going down, down, down, there will be more of you that will give. Spread the Wealth!!!!

If the change you want is spread the wealth, no secret ballets for unions, and an increase in government owned business, vote Obama, but if you think capitalism is a great economic way of life, think right to work is fair for employees and think private ownership of business is the best way to grow our economy, vote McCain.

I say keep your money, I’ll make it on my own. Go McCain!!!!!

liv   November 3rd, 2008 4:22 pm ET

My Goodness I can’t imagine the Republican ticket ( a racist and an ignorant) could rule America.

ralph   November 3rd, 2008 4:22 pm ET

That could be. I just hope that everyone knows a lack of tax revenue to a republican is government spending. It’s socialist because it’s borrowed against the national debt. You really don’t thick government spending increased that much do you.

bjoel   November 3rd, 2008 4:24 pm ET

I can’t wait to see Anderson’s face and the rest of the Obamabots at CNN when McCain/Palin win!!!!

Moderator, I hope you enjoy my comment since I’m sure you won’t post for the rest to see.

BJoel Miami, Florida

MCCAIN/PALIN!!!!!!! 2008

Prezzy Junior   November 3rd, 2008 4:26 pm ET

Anderson, the McCain campain was doomed the day he chose Sara Palin as his running mate. The American people have come to understand that, should he get elected, he would be a worse president that George Bush for not only endorsing his policies, but for showing the worst judgement in the U.S. presidential election history. In a single and most important decision a president makes before entering the White House, John McCain chose Sara Palin. For the good of the country, top officials in his own party pressured Sara Palin to step down, but he refused to agree with them, abusing even his own trade mark of ” Country First.” You are a smart man, Anderson, but I am afraid we have to disagree, for the first time, here. Obama’s victory tomorrow will be a land slide.

Independent   November 3rd, 2008 4:26 pm ET

I am in independent voter and I am voting for Obama. John McCain has done more to hurt his campagn. (1) Not strong on the economy, (2) Continue to fight a stupid war, (3) Negative Campagn to divide the country, (4) Chose Sara Palin as a running mate (lack of judgement), 5. No Clear Direction, and (6) Out of touch with America.

How can he put America first when he is out of touch with America. Furthermore, his comments about “Real Americans.” What is that?

Meg in St. Pete   November 3rd, 2008 4:30 pm ET

Pinellas County had 46,383 early voters. I feel lucky that it only took me an hour and 10 minutes to vote. I must have chosen the right day!! No major glitches so far with the optical scan ballots. Go Obama!!!

Joy, Fort Gordon, Georgia   November 3rd, 2008 4:33 pm ET

There are many of us here in Georgia who working hard at trying to turn this state blue from the inside out. VOTE OBAMA, MARTIN, AND SAXON.

Shalanda PW County Virginia   November 3rd, 2008 4:33 pm ET

GO OBAMA!!

Im so happy VA is going BLUE! Obama will be in Manassas tonight and I will be there. I just want to see him. This man is a role model to me. Obama we LOVE you and GOD BLESS YOU!! I know he will truly make a difference in this world.

Im so happy this is almost over so I can get some sleep!!

PK   November 3rd, 2008 4:35 pm ET

Either you still believe that US is at the top of the food chain or you realise that US is competing against many other nations which are at least its equal. The fact is US owes trillions while so many other countries have hundreds of billions in foreign reserves. So either you face the facts and vote for the future or delude yourselve and vote for the past.

Terry   November 3rd, 2008 4:39 pm ET

The pollsters are old men and women, trying to apply antiquated methods to modern polling issues. I marvel at the fact that 95% of young people we know do not have a land-line phone. We picked up on this phenomenon while visiting Europe ten years ago. Young people had two cells phones (one for the office and one for the home). There explanation was simple and to the point “If people call us, they want to talk with us right then, not later when we check the answering machine”. “Also, our personal phone travels with us when on Holiday.” This explanation made sense to me, and I did not carry a cell phone on my Holiday. Fast forward to 2008, and the pollsters have absolutely no “real-time data on younger voters. I believe we are seeing a trend throughout the U.S. that is tracking to what we have witnessed around the world. Younger people communicate via the Internet and cell phones. The younger people are far more advanced than most older Americans. The days of voting for the old man, because he has thirty or more years experience, will soon be behind us. On Tuesday, we will hear the voice of Younger America, which makes me very happy. As a teenager in the 60’s, I stepped forward, with so many other Young Americans, and followed John F. Kennedy’s prodding to serve America. I now watch young Americans, stepping forward to follow Barack Obama’s urging to once again, serve America. I believe the young people can get far more done, must faster, if we just give them the opportunity and the resources to be successful. This election cycle has been fun for me – I just love watching the enthusiasm of the younger voters!

Mark Cowan   November 3rd, 2008 4:39 pm ET

No mater who wins, things will be hard for everyone in this country for a number of years. The question is who has the best chance of leading us to a better future. As a Republican, I am sorry to say its not McCain and never Palin. Whe we have to resort to the terribly dishonest tactics that we have seen in the McCain Palin campaign we should hang it up in favor of country first!!! The voting intimidation, racial slurs and baiting, and Islamic bashing by Palin is totally anti-American and I hang my head low to call myself a Republican. Obama has been honest and straigh forward with us all. His negative ads have attacked McCains policies and record, not his character or patriotism. McCain has spewed lies and personal attacks right and left and has very few positive ads. He would divide us further. Hope the election unites us under Obama. Republican in PA for Obama08

Pat   November 3rd, 2008 4:43 pm ET

I am an american citizen since November last year. I was not born here. I was naturalized. I love this country. It had given me and my family the opportunity to have a happy life. I can not believe that there are persons in this country that are willing to elect for commander in chief a candidate that has allow people to critize and disrespect OUR Country in his presence without even bother to protest. (Obama when he assisted a church where the priest instead of talked about God’s message decide to badmouth our beloved country) To me that would disqualify ANY candidate. It does not matter if she or he is Democrat or Republican. For God sake we all suppose to be Americans. We have to respect our country, to believe in its strenght and to work hard to leave the country better than be found it. It would be a disgrace for all honorable americans to impose on us a disrespecful, ungrateful candidate as our president.

Lynda   November 3rd, 2008 4:47 pm ET

The United States can not handle another stolen presidency and will not let it go the way Bush stole the race before. CNN it is your duty to stay on top of the voting sites and not let the republicans steal the election again.

Vote, Vote, Vote!!!!

Michael   November 3rd, 2008 4:47 pm ET

I’ve been hearing alot of talk about civil unrest, if Obama looses this election. Can anyone elaborate more about this ? Its all over the net.

Nate   November 3rd, 2008 4:48 pm ET

I am so ridiculously tired of this entire situation.

Its so ridiculous apparent that Obama is the better candidate and its extremely frustrating that for some reason people still cling to the McCain/Palin ticket when they are a horrible choice and have run a disgustingly dirty campaign.

Your pride will be the down fall of country and continue our downward spiral with regards to our standing in the world. It says something when countless countries support Obama. It’s time to become that beacon of hope again, because currently we’re viewed as a joke thanks to the past 8 years.

Our country should not stand for more of the same, and by voting McCain you are ensuring our global defeat.

joyce   November 4th, 2008 12:13 am ET

All I can say at this point is Obama 08!!!

Tim - US citizen in Singapore   November 4th, 2008 12:40 am ET

This democratic process ‘American style’ seems to be an enormous waste of resources, energy, and time – all of which could be better spent tackling important issues. Deveoping nations around the world don’t buy this ‘one size fits all’ approach. Could we learn something from China? Their leaders are the brightest scientists, mathematicians, economists and intellectuals in China. I don’t begin to understand the inner workings of our government/economy – I say give the job to Michael Bloomberg, and make it an 8 year term – enough time to implement long term vision and solutions. In the meantime, Obama’s the leader we need to help us to redefine our position in the world.
American citizens abroad understand this well – I sincerely hope you all voted! It’s not too late to FAX it in!

Brad   November 4th, 2008 12:40 am ET

The models that the prognosticators are relying on leave out 1 key variable that has never truly reared its head…but it has a reason to in this election…the Black vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…possibly even Georgia. No “likely voter” model has ever planned for the numbers of Black voters that are going to turn out and vote for Obama in this election.

Likewise, the Hispanic vote will be decisive in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and some other states…like Virginia…where they may well provide the margin of victory.

If the younger voters show up and vote for Obama (which the voting models always discount), this could be an Electoral College landslide.

In short, I’m not so sure that there is a reliable voting model for this election. There has never been anything like it before.

Darel   November 4th, 2008 12:50 am ET

I said this from the start, America is in shambles, and the GOP had 8 years to get it right. They didn’t!they have put us in a bigger mess than we were in. How can McCain even THINK he knows what it is to be an average American when he owns 8 homes?this country is suffering, and tired of the last 8 years. This election will be a landslide victory for Obama. Its time for new leaders in this country.

Belinda W   November 4th, 2008 1:09 am ET

God love you Northern VA. You have saved us in the last state elections, so please, please do the same this go round. I am in southeast VA and praying you guys carry us through!!! Ba”rock” the Vote!!!!!!

Stacy   November 4th, 2008 1:32 am ET

After reading the comments here (all typos and improper grammar included), I feel the need to respond to the apparently ignorant and short-sighted masses. Being a teacher, I am surrounded by Obama supporters day in and day out on the job. They are loud and obnoxious about their candidate of choice, and it is all I can do to hold my disappointment inside. Now that the “rich” people include most teaching couples, I cannot believe that they still support the “redistribution of wealth” that the Obama ticket supports. They apparently do not realize that they are among those who will experience a huge tax hike in order to spread their wealth among those “less fortunate” or perhaps those who do not work as hard. I suggest that everyone seriously think about the future repercussions of their choice on election day.

Margie   November 4th, 2008 1:42 am ET

We welcome everyone to turn blue :) , we can be one nation, under God (I believe there is one God, with many different names :) ), INDIVISIBLE (even by the GOP), with liberty and justice for all!

Obama/Biden ‘08

Josh   November 4th, 2008 2:13 am ET

I have family in DeSoto, MO, a town of 7,000 in the middle of Jefferson County. My parents are both conservative christians and Republican voters. I know one of my parents is voting Obama, and suspect the other will also. Democrats are gaining more ground in Jefferson, Co.

mike   November 4th, 2008 2:23 am ET

Has anyone given at least a last minute thought about handing over the Password to the launch of Nuclear Missiles to the ill tempered, aged Rambo McCain and the ego crazy, gun toting Palin?

They wouldn’t give a damn if thousands of young American lives were lost in order to satisfy thei egos.

autoprt   November 4th, 2008 3:05 am ET

i live in NW Georgia and wonder
why is it that every election these are the same areas that decide the election????

i stood in line for exactly 3 hours, if i see the exact same pattern again i will never do so again. what would be the point?

Adam   November 4th, 2008 3:18 am ET

All that is needed for Obama to win is a BIG voter turnout and no or very few “voting irregularities”. People are registering to vote because he finally gives them someone to believe in. Still a two party system which isn’t the greatest. The 40%-50% who don’t usually vote are many of the people this country has left behind and Obama at least inspires the belief that he can do something about that. He talks and inspires a great vision for the future.

Maybe we can finally start to fix education, health care and public infrustructure in this country instead of bombing other countries that pose no threat to us. That bailout $$$,$$$,$$$,$$$.00 should have been invested in the country instead of giving it to the banks to pass around to all their pals in finance.

He has gotten soooooooo many campaign contributions, I wonder how that will shape his policies and decisions once he gets in office. I think if the rest of the world could vote in this election, most of the world would be Blue while much of the US South would stand out blood red.

He’s got a lot to deliver on, lets hope the voting public comes through tomorrow and he comes through over the next 8 years!

Fred Bass   November 4th, 2008 3:43 am ET

Let us thank the those people on Wall Street and in the financial sector who have so clearly demonstrated that unregulated greed doesn’t work.

And let us accept the challenge from Obama to set fear aside in re-building our community and our nation and instead rely on our own bravery and compassion!

Beyordanos T.   November 4th, 2008 3:47 am ET

America see the truth! What more could you expect from the Bush’s ?McCain showed us how ignorant he is by selecting Palin,For An obviuous political scum of getting women voters.The World Watch you and your Democracy.This time an intelegent person is at your helm.
This is your test,your success is in your hand.

OBAMA ‘08

J.V.Hodgson   November 4th, 2008 4:16 am ET

All very interesting, but the deciders this time will be Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio.
If Obama takes all those, he can lose all the rest of the toss up states, including Colorado,Nevada and New Mexico, which have been traditionally red.
The only glitch here is Pensylvania.
I look at your electoral map and MCcain has to take all 90 toss ups and still need 23 to win, it not only looks a major Mountain but virtually impossible, if the polls mean anything at all.
As usual, voters decide thank god!!
Regards,
Hodgson.

Mark - Malta   November 4th, 2008 4:52 am ET

As a person who likes politics, it is a must that a person who has vision, pride and accepts that he can make mistakes is a better leader. I have watched and see all what they had to say and the outcome is that if I had to vote, Obama / Biden would have been my choice.

George Wirnkar   November 4th, 2008 5:09 am ET

The US media but fN has been grossly biased against McCain/Palin. The polls are only a sampling and in an election with too many immeasurable parameters, the Obama/Biden supporters should hold their horses a little while before celebrating a victory that may never be. Not only am I supporting McCain Palin, I am slso praying for their campaign. God Bless America and the world she influences so much.

Denise   November 4th, 2008 5:23 am ET

God bless you Barack Obama!

Michael   November 4th, 2008 5:38 am ET

I do not see any reason to believe that McCain will win this election. He lost the election the he said that economy was in good shape. He also lost most of the independent voters when he chosed Gov. Sarah. Most people, including me do not believe that she is ready to be president. Obviously, McCain would have performed much more better had he chose Romney.

Michael Bush (Kungälv, Sweden)   November 4th, 2008 6:33 am ET

I have been a solid supporter of the GOP since I was a kid. Handing out candidate literature, going door to door on election days to get out the vote, fundraisers…you name it. We (the GOP and myself) didn’t always see eye to eye on some issues. But I always had faith in the ticket.
This time I was undecided, until McCain chose Palin as a running mate. Why Palin? Wasn’t the Christian Right already a lock? Gov. Palin strongly represents many of the things that I always disagreed with in the GOP. All McCain succeeded in doing was pushing away the Moderate Right. And away I went.
I voted for Obama 3 weeks ago by absentee ballot. This wasn’t a choice of the “lesser of two evils”. I simply believe he is the best man for the job.

Kalu   November 4th, 2008 6:40 am ET

I can not agree less with all the opinion polls that Obama would win.
Am anciously waiting for the final announcement.
Indeed, it is a test of character and sincereity for America that preaches transparency to developing nations.

daw   November 4th, 2008 7:30 am ET

Vote Obama for better future

Still the Reps using their fear mongering tactics, and personal attacks, but Americans are not so stupid we know better, for sure we do not want to repeat the last eight years of our history where our ideology of capitalism is almost knocked down we don’t need to
- Continue tax incentives to the rich and to companies that ship out jobs.
- Broken health care system:
- throw everybody to the mercy of insurance companies.
- Rising economic insecurity
- Rising costs and stagnant wages
- destroy our and the world economy

We know better.

Vote Obama for better future

Obama is the One for change,
don’t be fouled or misguided by the misleading Ads

bonnie   November 4th, 2008 7:43 am ET

Please inform your audience especially, Republicans, Gov. Palin and Sen. McCain-for the last eight years we lived in a totalitarian country and the nerve of them to label Sen. Obama, a socialist. Once upon a time, America was a lucrative country until Reganomics, Bush, Greed, and Selfishness destroyed IT. Also, Senator Obama is more than qualified to run this Country.

In addition we are all guilt by association…………………..

Mike (Fairfax, VA)   November 4th, 2008 7:50 am ET

I have been getting door knocks and phonecalls from Obama supporters at least twice a day since the end of September to the point of harrassment, not sure why I keep getting talked too. It is all politics I guess. Vote for the individual you predict will be the best leader for the next for years. Remember, there are five choices for president in 2008….not just the two “major party” candidates that get all the media attention. I am not about to vote on party lines or follow the polls just because most others are, I read and evaluate each candidates positions then pick my candidate for each elected office. Take it seriously and be informed. Cast a knowledgable vote.

Heather PW county VA   November 4th, 2008 8:14 am ET

I do not consider myself a democrat but there was no doubt in my mind that once Obama was elected that he had my vote. I am waiting at home with my baby for my husband to get back from voting so I can head out. He has been in line for over 2 hours now. This just shows that VA is having a great turn out and we mughtf just go Blue finally! Yeah

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