David Gergen | BIO
AC360° Contributor
CNN Senior Political Analyst
With victory almost in his grasp, the looming question for Barack Obama is whether he will squeak by or whether he can roll up the score. It will matter enormously to his leadership as President.
For Obama supporters, just climbing to the top of the mountain with 270 electoral votes has always seemed daunting enough. And they are right. After all, Democrats have seen triumphs slip away from them so often - they have lost 7 of the past 10 presidential elections - that they are extremely uneasy that the Republicans can pull an upset this time, too. It seems unlikely after a raft of national polls this weekend showed Obama with a national lead of around 7 points - and by some estimates in double digits. Still, there were also unsettling state polls last night by the Mason Dixon firm showing McCain closing in fast in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Missouri. Who can say for sure that Pennsylvania will remain blue. It ain't over 'till it's over.
But when the dust clears and if the Democrats have pulled it off, the Obama team will care a great deal about the size and breadth of victory. Much of his early presidency will hang in the balance.
There are three keys to watch on Tuesday night:
1. Percentage of the national vote. Right now, there is a solid prospect that Obama can rack up 51 percent or more of the total vote. If so, he would be the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to win a majority of the national vote (Carter had 50.1 percent) and only the second Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt to claim a majority (Lyndon Johnson was the other). That historic standing would give Obama a fresh boost as the president-elect and would mean that he could run ahead of Members of Congress in their own states. In Washington, that gives a president extra power.
2. Number of red states won. In recent campaigns, Democratic presidential contenders have won mostly on the east and west coasts and the upper midwest. John Kerry only won 19 states plus the District of Columbia, and one could get on a plane at Dulles and fly to Los Angeles without flying over a state that the Democrats won.
Obama has had a vision since his convention speech in 2004 of Democrats becoming a national party, getting beyond the traditional red/blue divides. And he now has a good chance of doing it. If he can win a couple of southern states, plus two or three states from the Rocky Mountains, not to mention more Midwestern areas, he can claim a true national victory - and he would have the makings of a new, majority coalition for the Democrats, something they have lacked for decades.
3. The size of Democratic wins in the Senate and House. The Democrats were heading toward significant pick-ups with or without a presidential win, but if Obama racks up a convincing victory and is accompanied by nine or more new Democratic Senators and a couple of dozen new House members, that will give him muscle on Capitol Hill that few Presidents have enjoyed. I was working for Ronald Reagan in 1980 when he trounced Jimmy Carter and Republicans swept to 12 pick-ups in the Senate and 33 in the House. Reagan was much more respected - and effective - in working with Congress because of that thumping victory.
So, the eyes of the Obama team will be focused on getting to 270 electoral votes tomorrow night, but those who care about governing - and Obama cares more than most appreciate - will be watching, too, to see how big and broad a victory he can achieve. It could be an historic night in more ways than one.
| sfokc6125 |
November 3rd, 2008 4:04 pm ET Lets see if you can count his mother and father were not American Citizens. The state became a state in 1959 he was born in 1961 it take 7 years to become a citizen. Only born citizens can hold that office. But I am going to guess that you ether want to pay 50% of your hard earned money to a program taken fro ether FDR that failed of Carter that also failed . Or you are one of the ones who will receive the funds. Ether way it is of no consequences'. Homeland security is going to get the LA tape and that will bar him no mater what lies he uses to get in. We will not have a President that has ties to domestic and foreign terrorists . I also know you do NOT raise taxes and spend more when the dollar is down. You cut both to increase economy that creates job that creates revenue that gains the stock market. that is how it is done. You also don't go after a a union base industry. The Coal miners don't like it when you say you are going to bankrupt them and the towns they live and raise their families'. |
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| Gino Motafferi |
November 3rd, 2008 4:04 pm ET What is unbeleivable about the prank phone call from President Sarkosy, as orchestrated by a French Canadian radio station in Montreal, is when allege Sarkosy mentions a jibberish name for the Prime Minister of Canada, she claims to know him very well and has set up many trade deals with him. She did the same when a jiberish name was used to identify the Premiere of Quebec! Total lack of knowledge about current events by Palin with her neighbour Canada!! Gino |
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| Hope Stevens |
November 3rd, 2008 4:07 pm ET I believe that there is a margin of error with the cnn polls and that Senator Obama is going to trounce Senator Mccain by 300+ electoral votes. Optimistic, maybe, but then again election night is but a day away. |
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| pati mc., camp hill, pa |
November 3rd, 2008 4:07 pm ET Hello Mr. Gergen, Thank you for the Primer. As one who greatly values your wisdom, I promise to put it to good use tomorrow night. Fantastic information! Really looking forward to spending this exciting day tomorrow with you and all of the BPTOT; or even better, as Anderson dubbed y'all – The Best Political Hoarde on Television". Best wishes to you all. It's almost over and you can all get some well deserved rest. |
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| Franky |
November 3rd, 2008 4:10 pm ET You know David, I was thinking about this a LONG TIME AGO... When I was talking about how my boy can win Montana, the GOP just laughed at my face. When I was talking about how he could have a chance in Indiana because we(Illinois) give it a major boost in terms of being a neighbor and recognition(and also because of the Big Ten...I'm telling you, I have evidence! LOL!), the GOP punched me in the face. When he can finally take Virginia for the GOP since the 60's the GOP ignore it, etc. And what did I say about Iowa?? I'm telling you, don't wanna get upset the people of Iowa. They laughed at me David, they laughed at me and who got the last laugh now?? Even Andrew Jackson would be proud how far we've come, LOL!! This is all I'm gonna say...it is gonna be crazy...is gonna be REAL crazy. |
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| Bev |
November 3rd, 2008 4:11 pm ET FYI – As for the coal miners issue – it's a lie being spread on Fox News. Check your facts and check McCain's backing of the same thing. |
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| Cindy |
November 3rd, 2008 4:11 pm ET Gergen, And BTW...I used to like you because you were atleast one pundit who was unbiased. Now you are just one in a million who slant everything to the liberal leftist side. So sorry...I can't take you serious. Cindy...Ga. |
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| Liz |
November 3rd, 2008 4:15 pm ET Why does John Mcain not wear a flag pin when Obama got into so much trouble for not wearing one |
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| Mary V., Salt Lake City, UT |
November 3rd, 2008 4:16 pm ET @ "Sfokc6125": Dude, better do your own research and get the FACTS straight. Sen. Obama's mother was born in the state of KANSAS! Duh. His dad in Kenyan. Sen. Obama was born in 1961 Hawaii BECAME A STATE IN .........1959! SO many LIES! Mr. Gergen, we admire you at our house, you are eloquent and fair. The polls are wrong. |
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| CF in Naples, FL |
November 3rd, 2008 4:16 pm ET I always appreciate your comments and how easily you and a few others share the depth of your understanding. I basically learned to think as a child from reading Mike Royko and Sydney J. Harris in the Chicago Daily News. I've gotten very upset at the trends in what goes by the name of "journalism" and "commentary" over the past thirty years. Royko was so right when he warned us about the invasion of 'the alien'. |
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| Vegas |
November 3rd, 2008 4:19 pm ET Yea... I'll wait for the count... however I believe Obama will win the election... we shall see... I think the major buisnesses in the US believe it too... you can see the layoffs starting already... trying to stay ahead of the coming payroll tax increases... |
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| Sharon Kitchen |
November 3rd, 2008 4:28 pm ET I ,like alot of folks, will be watching the totals as they come in. I hope that what you have said comes true.......Obama/Biden '08 in aBIG way. It is time for CHANGE. It is time the voters vote counted. It is time for Obama/Biden. |
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| a. n. westchester n.y |
November 3rd, 2008 4:28 pm ET Hey David, What guarantee do we have that the election machines have not been rigged..... are you guys going to cover the findings of the blackbox team? and what has been done since then to investigate the makers of election machinery? |
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| Cynthia |
November 3rd, 2008 4:33 pm ET David, I understand what you are saying about a large win but as I see it when he wins that will speak volumes as to where we have come as a country. In addition to that, it will definitely improve how the rest of the world views us. |
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| bugoff |
November 3rd, 2008 4:46 pm ET everyone I talked to today that was undecided has decided to swing right. They were totally not liking the big O's abortionist stance, or his "tax" ideas |
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| Tejana |
November 3rd, 2008 4:47 pm ET I believe that the conservatives have lost this election because most of us ARE JUST PLAIN TIRED of being told that we are not patriotic or christian if we didn't agree with all of their ideology, or if we live in a city or if we are not white or if we are not "rednecks". How dare they! Their intolerance and self righteousness is coming home to roost. They have become everything the founding fathers were against and everything our brave service men and women fought against. They are making people afraid of the future if they don't get their way. We are all looking for a change, a change in the dialog so that all of us can be including in making a new future. Yes we need to look at all of these things, but a new page has turned for our county...and a new generation is going to take charge. |
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| Ab Tal |
November 3rd, 2008 4:48 pm ET Re: sfokc6125 Dude, time to buy extra ammo, camo, water and canned goods. Get to the mountains before the Commies, Muslims, Gays, and Black People come get you. Boo! |
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| Bill |
November 3rd, 2008 4:50 pm ET Hi David; Momentum has been with Mr Obama since his early victories in the Democartic race. He is a product of change and has energized the american public on both the republican and democratic sides. A big victory tommorow seems possible and right now seems probable. If he is to win I hope it is by a large margin so the democratic party can bring sweeping change in washinton. America is the nation the world looks to for leadership and right now america is ripe for a new vision. Obama isn't experienced but he evokes hope and hope is what american spirit is based on. He is half black half white with a controversial name. He belongs to no race or religion exclusively and thus is a model of future society. A society where we move beyond simple ideology and fear and move toward solutions and greater good. Too much energy is wasted fighting amongst ourselves and other nations it is not a fairy tale to think mankind can evolve to a greater consciousness. The dreams of Abraham Lincoln, JFK and Martin Luther King resonate in all of us. Red or Blue all americans and all peoples are essentially the same. Obama is only representing what is inside us all even though some may try to hide it. We are looking for a better way to do business a better way to deliver services. The american people will rise to any challenge Obama is simply a symbol of hope nothing more. After the election the economy with right itself via the "invisible hand" ie it will right itself in accordance to the real market equilibrium. New technologies will continue to trickle into mainstream life GDP will again increase and the world will continue to prosper. A large victory for Obama will be a catalyst a spark that will ignite the match of change. Thank you David for you analysis on CNN. I really look forward to you comments during the new administrations tenure. CNN is a great medium for the american citizen to aquire information and desseminate new information. |
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| Dahveed |
November 3rd, 2008 4:50 pm ET David: Thank you! Excellent article! I appreciate your experienced political insight. Like Regan, Obama is capable of providing the citizenry with inspiration, motivation, and optimistic energy!! He's got the vision thing plus intelligence. Go Obama!! |
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| Melinda Charlotte, NC |
November 3rd, 2008 4:52 pm ET Mr. Gergen, |
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| bob00004 |
November 3rd, 2008 4:55 pm ET Hopeful... but Dems should do everything they can to get out the vote, especially in challenging swing states. My take on the polls is that Obama will NOT win Fl, OH, IN, NC, MO, NV, although I hope he does. I think he may even lose VA (the old south and republican evil on election day, you know...). He must win PA, CO and NM for 273 votes. If you know anyone in those states, go to work... He has to win those three states! |
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| cynic |
November 3rd, 2008 4:56 pm ET sfokc6125 as someone else said his mother was a citzen. An being born in Hawaii makes him a citized even if it was not a state. Do you disagree it was a territory? Have you thought about McCain being born in Panama? |
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| Lonny King |
November 3rd, 2008 4:56 pm ET All these republicans who complain that the press is too liberal. A lot of it is simply stating the common sensical, intelligent thing and the conservatives scream liberal bias. And, fox News calls itself "fair and balanced." They are no more fair and balanced than the current administration. |
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| Dave |
November 3rd, 2008 4:58 pm ET sfokc6125, you acknowledge that Obama was born in Hawaii when it was a state, so he is a natural born citizen. In fact, a natural born citizen does not need to be born in a state (as opposed to a territory); after all, John McCain is considered a natural born citizen, even though he was born in the Panama Canal zone. |
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| GergenRules! |
November 3rd, 2008 4:58 pm ET Dear Mr. Gergen, You're just about one of the last people I respect, appreciate, and trust for fair and intelligent commentary. Thanks for hanging in there over the last few months. You deserve a special place in heaven for all the potential spittakes you've stifled or avoided–fureel. |
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| Launcelot |
November 3rd, 2008 4:59 pm ET The biggest mistake that the Republicans made during the last 8 years was to govern as though they were still campaigning. While this led to short term gains (i.e., 2002) and reelection, it turned out to be a recipe for disaster for their party. Because campaigning is necessarily divisive and governing requires building–not just a majority–but a semblance of consensus. Large Democratic majorities in Congress will undoubtedly help Obama as he begins to lead the country in a new direction. But more importantly (as those majorities may well be transient–witness 1994) will be HOW he governs. Will he seek to unite us (as he says) or to divide us (as Bush did)? If Obama really means what he says and tries to heal the awful wounds Bush and his crowd inflicted on our country during the last 8 years, the Democrats may well hold the reins for a long time. This could have been the Republicans' fate, had they behaved differently, had they governed wisely, in a manner befitting the majority party. Instead, they go to a well-deserved and ignominious defeat. They have nobody to blame but themselves. Let us hope, not only for the sake of the Democrats but for the sake of the country, that Obama is wiser. Let us hope that the Democrats rule "with malice towards none, with charity for all ..." |
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| Nancy Robinson |
November 3rd, 2008 5:01 pm ET I wonder what are we going to do after Tuesday??? My TV stays on CNN-MSNBC 35 hours a day. I said from day 1 the only reason OBAMA does not win will be because of the color of his SKIN. We have come tooooooo far and there is no excuse for ignorance. The world IS changing and we all need to get ready expecially RUSH LIMBAUGH. I respect him because you know where he stands and he is not one of those IN THE CLOSET BIGOTS. Nancy |
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| jv88 |
November 3rd, 2008 5:02 pm ET When you say Obama cares about governing, what do you base that on? Obama’s career is mainly running for office. As a legislator, his experience is razor thin and very liberal. As a community organizer / lawyer, his experiences are very questionable and generally very radical. As a campaigner, Obama has been handled like no candidate has ever been handled. Instead of probing and/or follow up questions, instead of researching into his background, his experiences or his voting records, the national media chose instead to applaud, praise, cheer, and defend him and his associates. The only difficult questions Obama received in 2 years of traveling with the national media was from Joe the Plummer and a local Florida newscaster, both of whom are now being trashed by that same national media, how pathetic is that! Have you or CNN asked Obama any tough questions? Of course, you and the national media never had any intention knowing what Obama stands for, what makes him who he is, and what direction he’ll take the country. Three reasons for this; the dreaded “racist” tag, most of the media is very liberal, but more importantly; Obama is a big news event, an event the media does want to be left out of. The problem is, once you’re the president, there is no escaping the tough questions. And if Obama gets in the backlash on the media will be huge. Vote McCain/Palin. |
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| ConservativeDem |
November 3rd, 2008 5:02 pm ET Vegas, are you serious? "I think the major buisnesses in the US believe it too… you can see the layoffs starting already… trying to stay ahead of the coming payroll tax increases…" Have you even been paying attention to the latest economic news? Have you even looked at Obama's tax plan, or are you just spouting reprehensible Republican rhetoric? Clearly, these are rhetorical questions. |
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| Retired VET |
November 3rd, 2008 5:02 pm ET RE: sfokc6125 Maybe you could find another country to move to....then you won't have to fret and frazzle you wee brain over the next EIGHT years.... |
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| Sam Johnson |
November 3rd, 2008 5:03 pm ET Great article. Unlike some, I found this article to be unbiased, simply giving an analysis on the current political situation. I'll keep it all in mind while watching the political circus tomorrow. Thanks! |
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| Betty Sedona |
November 4th, 2008 12:02 am ET Once again, David Gergen proves his genious. His contribution to this election has been absolutely immeasurable. Consider me one of his biggest fans! Betty |
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| Furphys Anonymous |
November 4th, 2008 12:05 am ET You've heard about the majority of taxes Obama has planned to introduce, but have you heard of the covert tax? The money is taken directly from your bank account – however, it does not show up on your bank statements!!! Your bank balance may show $1000, when your actual balance is $1000 minus $50 covert tax!!! Is this convincing enough for you to vote McCain? Or should I type it in caps? |
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| Will |
November 4th, 2008 12:06 am ET I totally agree with your view on the map, its trending heavily democratic and the race looks great for Obama. Its time for the Change We Need. Obama/Biden 08 |
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| Jerry L. |
November 4th, 2008 12:07 am ET A quick perspective/observation from one Canadian. America needs the Obama/Biden ticket right now and frankly, if somehow Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin squeek in, well, you (collectively) deserve what you get.....although it seems unlikely that will happen. I have watched CNN far more than I thought I would and I find the coverage while overwhelming at times is truly riveting at other times, I suppose a testiment to this historic race. And regarding coverage, no one has impressed me as much as you have with your measured and insightful commentary night after night. It is great entertainment to watch the party wags go at it but the real meat in this election inevitably comes from you. Thanks and cheers! |
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| David |
November 4th, 2008 12:09 am ET To jv88 and sfokc6125 and McCain's "friends", if you can't win by policy ideas, leadership and truthfulness, then try dishonesty, trickery, cheating and innuendo. And feel proud about it, because that's the way Presidents of the US of A should be elected. Right? |
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| dolly24 |
November 4th, 2008 12:17 am ET Thanks for the unbiased opinion, David. Why does not |
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| Todd |
November 4th, 2008 12:29 am ET David, |
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| Jim Hart |
November 4th, 2008 12:34 am ET David: Thank you for your quiet, gentle, and steadfast way of reporting the facts of this race. When I am watching CNN, I always hope that you will have a chance to get a comment in on every issue because I know your comments will be based on facts and analysis, not on partisan ideology or on what you might personally want to be true. I have been making the same points to my friends and in blogs – it's not enough for Obama to simply win. First, he needs to win by a large margin in order to have the political capital that he will need to turn around 8 years of reckless adventurism. Second, the GOP needs to lose by a large margin so that they will know deep down that they need a fundamental shift in their tactics and philosophy in order to get back into the electorate's good graces. If the GOP loses by just a little, they'll try the same type of negative fear-mongering next time. Only a huge loss on their part had a chance to make them reflect on what type of party they have become, and how far that is from the type of party Lincoln wanted them to be. |
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| slc in nyc |
November 4th, 2008 12:34 am ET Stokc6125 What in the world are you talking about. You sound worse than Gov. Palin. Are you a relative? |
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| Dan Edmonds |
November 4th, 2008 12:36 am ET Actually the candidate born outside of the United States is John McCain. He was born in the country of Panama. I assume he was born in the military hospital on post. It may have been United States territory, but it definitely was not in one of the 48 states of which the United States consisted at that time. Gee, do you think we should let John run? |
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| Mongo |
November 4th, 2008 12:40 am ET I guess one of my measures (in addition to the may others) of the Obama campaign is the rhetoric versus action. As an Independent, I will vote platform, but I did not see the inclusiveness of Obama's platform. Sorry folks – it ain't there. And after having been confronted by Obama supporters – who by direction got pretty vocal and accused me of things that ......sigh.....shakes head...... His campaign ran just like all other campaigns have in the past. I do believe he will be elected, but I predict little of a "new " way of conducting politics within the Beltway will come to pass. What concerns me are the interviews where he has discussed the flaws in our Constitution, wealth redistribution, carbon cap and trade, social issues – the list goes on. As i told the McCain campaign in my own state – McCain is a candidate with warts and I find it hard to vote for him. But in comparison to Obama – I have no choice. Finally, to close my wandering missive – my vote does not count in a state where a large bloc on the other side of the state has already determined where my electoral vote goes – and on the national level – I am disenfranchised by that stark fact. |
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| Kim |
November 4th, 2008 12:45 am ET Obama ! They want to see your birth certificate ? Do you need to know the color of the underwear our elected officials are wearing ? That could be a sound bite and we'll turn into a motion picture with MGM ! His grandmom passed and leave him alone ! I'm sick of everybody picking fights including myself and there in a fuss on Anderson Cooper ! Call security ! |
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| Vickie |
November 4th, 2008 12:50 am ET We will be surprised with the outcome: A victory for Mc Cain! After this election my t.v. will be off for a long time. It ' s sad to see the corruption of the media in this country! I believe they should be looking for other kinds of jobs! |
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| DC Voter |
November 4th, 2008 12:52 am ET I would like Mr. Gergen's commentary better if he didn't distort statistics to his advantage. Yes, R's won 7 of the last 10; but they also won 7 of the last 12; 9 of the last 14; and 9 of the last 19. Or, if you would prefer, R's won only 2 of the last 4. Suddenly, the R election record doesn't seem so convincing. Perhaps it is just ordinary transfer of power from one party to another - a good democratic exercise of checks and balances. |
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| AZjim |
November 4th, 2008 12:53 am ET Last minute fabrications and scare tactics by the right wing are not going to work this time. The majority of Americans realize the issues are too serious to allow themselves to be distracted by these petty lies. Obama will be victorious with over 50% of the popular vote.Even if we give G.W. Bush credit for actually winning in 2000, he won by a very narrow margin. Bush operated his presidency as if he had won by a landslide. Obama is not that sort of politician. He will truly unite our country. |
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| Lynette Joseph |
November 4th, 2008 12:55 am ET The Fox News channel appear to have 'out foxed' themselves. Negative news coverage can be of great help and probably helped Senator Obama. When the Democrats win this election, lets see what happens in the 'no spin' zones. America must return to being the First Nation in the world. |
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| Pam, WV |
November 4th, 2008 1:03 am ET In response to the sfokc6125 comment – "Lets see if you can count his mother and father were not American Citizens. The state became a state in 1959 he was born in 1961 it take 7 years to become a citizen. Only born citizens can hold that office." Obama's mother was born in Kansas, to American citizens, which makes her an American citizen, she never renounced her citizenship at any time. If you want to take that route – John McCain was born in Panama. I don't think Panama is one of the 50 states. |
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| rusty |
November 4th, 2008 1:04 am ET David, I'm wishing and hoping for a huge Obama victory, but I won't allow myself to believe it till I see it. By all rights, wouldn't you agree that he deserves it, given the campaign he ran, as compared to the pathetic campaign McCain ran? I mean, if McCain actually wins this, how can he look the American people in the eye, his campaign was one of endless attacks on the character of Barack Obama. In the end, I'm hoping the American people give him, and Cindy, and Sarah a firm rejection of their low road campaign. They don't deserve to lead anyone. Tuesday will tell the tale. |
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| Michael |
November 4th, 2008 1:05 am ET Thanks, Mr. Gergen. I value your opinion as you are not one of those easily excitable pundits from EITHER the right or the left. |
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| Zachariah |
November 4th, 2008 1:07 am ET Thank You David Gergen for your unbiased expert analysis over the past several months!! I have been watching CNN 10 hours a day awaiting your take on every issue as it emerges!! I have come to love and trust your opinions to the point that i consider them facts. To be honest, im not sure what im going to do post-election of Barack Obama |
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| april |
November 4th, 2008 1:12 am ET to sfokc6125: I think you need a boost on your brain power: Senator Obama's mother was born in Kansas...hence...American Citizen. The 7 years you speak of...that is if you are not born in the U.S. or to U.S. citizens, but immigrate here. He was born in Hawaii, 2 years AFTER it became a state, hence he is a natural born citizen. You should really know what your talking about before you spew your garbage. In addition, based on your economic plan (mirrors the Bush plan), if that practice works, why have we lost over 700,000 jobs this year? Why has the gap between income levels increased? Why do Republicans refuse to see that what they support has not worked? Why are they so opposed to any type of change or new ideas? |
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| James |
November 4th, 2008 1:13 am ET David – good comments, but I must say I have been extremely disappointed in what has been an almost open bias on your part in favor of Barack Obama. It started during the primaries and got even worse in the general election. It seems to me you should declare yourself either a democratic strategist or an Obama supporter just like Roland Martin does. Given your solid liberal views I find it hard to understand how you could have worked in the Reagan administration. You must have undergone a idealogical transformation over the years. In any case, you should try to be more objective if you expect to have any credibility with independent voters. There are those of us out ther who still appreciate analysis that does not include one's own personal political emotions. |
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| Patrick M |
November 4th, 2008 1:13 am ET sfokc6125 So glad that McCain isn't going to come within a chance of winning, as he was clearly born outside the United States, and is no natural-born citizen and so is not eligible for the presidency. The years in court trying to justify his eligibility would consume us all... |
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| Nic |
November 4th, 2008 1:16 am ET Cindy states, "These polls you point to have been wrong WAY more than right. The TIPP poll, the most accurate of 2004 has the race at a 2.1 spread." So by your argument, Obama still wins. Nice. |
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| Marth |
November 4th, 2008 1:20 am ET Melinda states: Hmm–I would be willing to bet that Melinda watches so-called "fair and balanced" Fox. Note to Melinda: CNN and MSNBC are not liberal. Read the fine print. |
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| John Allison |
November 4th, 2008 1:26 am ET Mr.Gergen...I have the greatest respect for you.My Comment: When I see the kind of campaign Obama has run and the organization of it so evident over the past two years...the obvious Obama "stamp" on it and his wonderful choice of people to facilitate the operation of probably the best run campaign in US election history...I see the kind of President Obama will be & a White House that will be a shining place for all Americans & indeed people all around the world to look up to. McCain is & always has been incapable of this kind of operation.He does not have the temperment,nor smarts,nor education to measure up to a candidate like Obama. It is all so self-evident as the campaign closes. God Bless Obama,his family & the United States of America! |
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| Kim |
November 4th, 2008 1:36 am ET Pundit ? One who gives options in an authoritative manner ! Critic ? Anderson Cooper had to talk over all the pundits in a fuss tonight to bring about closure but they still wouldn't stop the fuss ! No one became physically aggressive that viewers are aware but we'd like to hear what you're response to the situation is Mr. Cooper ? Indetermintism situational on the eve of a nerve wrecking election ? This event could be recorded historically and please remember your manners pundits ! Wait your turn and listen or viewers can't hear what you're saying ! It's a rodeo ! Send in the clowns ! All comments are reviewed and deemed appropriate ? When they went to commerical did anyone throw a first punch or storm off angry cause ya couldn't hear a word they said ! Is there no administrative remedy in the real world ? Peace out ! |
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| Trudy in Peoria |
November 4th, 2008 1:37 am ET Were republicans this scared in 1992 on the eve of Bill Clinton being elected as president? It amazes me how so many racist Americans are that afraid of having an African-American president. Wake-up, it's not 1960 anymore. Obama is the best man for the job, not a trigger-happy old man who doesn't understand the economy. |
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| bimbrook |
November 4th, 2008 1:37 am ET Thank you David, once again. A few years ago I found myself telling my children: "Its not official unless Gergen says it!" 'Lofty words! Don't you have anything to say about the millions of mindless no-nothings in our country who impact elections and are quick 'out of the gate' with opinions while being unable to seperate fact from fantasy? I reference: sfokc6125. Regards. |
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| April |
November 4th, 2008 1:52 am ET Have you noticed how angry and bitter, mean and somewhat cruel McCain supporters are being on the Internet? Compare that to most of Obama's supporters who speak of hope and change. Most of us aren't belittling the opponents on a personal level, though it is certainly possible. We find fault with the issues, with the 90% pro-Bush voting record of McCain, with the lack of knowledge of Palin. It's a big dog-and-pony show. McCain has dug deep to try to blast Obama with negative, hateful things – conjecture, based on false claims and fear. Obama has taken the high road and blasted McCain on the issues. Certainly McCain's morals and family values could be called into question, but why do that when we can call him on so many other issues like education, the economy, and his own cronyism. While McCain is twisting and turning and doing whatever it takes to make Americans feel fear, Obama eloquently asks us to look ahead to the future, to get the vote out, and to support him. If you like nothing else about Obama, like his dignity and decency. Please VOTE FOR CHANGE today. VOTE OBAMA. |
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| Faith |
November 4th, 2008 1:55 am ET Stop it, and just Breath. Talk about silly season. If bloggers would just skip the drama and Obama fear-mongering, we would all benefit. No one believes it anyway. Some of these bloggers are ill-informed about the Obama family and make silly assertions about socialism, citizenship and character. Don’t they read anything except polemic emails from the smear campaigns? People need to think critically. Barack Obama proves daily that he is sturdy, respectful and full of pride for his nation. He is 100% American apple-pie. Obama has uncommon discipline, class and true respect for the country and ALL OF ITS PEOPLE. This is why he will win this race. His charisma and ability to inspire is only icing on the cake. I realize that many people do not agree with my point of view, but I don't resort to asserting ridiculous claims about McCain and Palin who have shown little gravitas or good judgment throughout their campaign. I am embarrassed for McCain and his sad attempt to paint Obama as anything except an equal. McCain does not understand how his party has run this country into the ground. We are in big trouble buddy. Stop, breath and listen for just a second and you will see that Obama proves daily that he is ‘Steady Eddie” and worthy of the office of the President of the United States. Breath. |
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| Robin M. |
November 4th, 2008 2:17 am ET Dear David Gergen, Forgive the flattery. But now seems to be the time to deliver it. It has been a life changing election. And besides getting to know you. In want to also note that in my entire life of 47 years I have never had the opportunity to listen to intelligent, educated blacks on a daily basis. This is just one of the many reasons that even if Barack Obama is not elected, he has changed the world for the better in many ways. Its been exciting and thank you for making my world a better place this year. I am (almost) sorry its over. |
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| Bini San |
November 4th, 2008 2:23 am ET For Michelle Obama, I guess smaller must be better. |
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| Al |
November 4th, 2008 2:33 am ET "Lets see if you can count his mother and father were not American Citizens. The state became a state in 1959 he was born in 1961 it take 7 years to become a citizen. Only born citizens can hold that office." #1. His mother was born in Kansas. Last time I checked, someone born in Kansas qualified as a US citizen. #2. When a US citizen has a child that child is considered a US citizen regardless of where it was born. #3. If Hawaii became a state in 1959 and Obama was born in 1961, then, defacto, he is a US citizen ( I know... math is hard) #4. When a state is granted statehood, people don't have to wait seven years to become citizens. It does take seven years to become a US citizen IF you are an individual immigrant seeing citizenship. Again, the seven years is for immigrants, not for states. I would recommend a repeat of both Geography and Civics! |
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| Sam |
November 4th, 2008 2:37 am ET Declared! Obama wins by 320+ points! |
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| Kate, Los Angeles |
November 4th, 2008 2:41 am ET jv88- you apparently don't even know Obama's history. He was a community organizer- helped people who lost their jobs in a plant, get retrained and back to work. worked with churches to develop community outreach programs for poor communities that needed better education, housing, etc. Obama spend 12 years as a University Professor teaching constitutional law to future public servants that will support the rights of people in America. Obama then worked in the State Senate for 7 years and then in the US Senate for 2 years. Obama graduated first in his class from Harvard Law school. Obama is highly intelligent, has inspired millions of Americans to volunteer, be involved in politics and to help others in their community. Obama has run a well organized campaign with a positive message of Change and tax cuts to 95% of working families, incentives for small businesses, 5 million new jobs to build a new frontier for energy independence, provide affordable healthcare options for those that are uninsured, etc. John McCain graduated from National War college, bottom 3rd in his class. Spent 20+ years in the senate, involved in Keating 5 scandal. What has John McCain offered that is different in economic policy or campaign tactics than GW Bush? Nothing. It is the same. It's time for change and America will get it right this time, Obama for President for the change we need. Thanks Gergen for a great article and I predict Obama will win FL, OH, VA, NC, CO, NV, NM and MO. |
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| Rick |
November 4th, 2008 2:45 am ET Thanks for the historical perspective, David. |
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| sabina |
November 4th, 2008 2:55 am ET i've placed a lot of hope on obama and his abilities to put some order on this mess the bush era casued to the whole world....the wrong war with thousands of victims, all the money spent to pursue in his cowboy way of leading the once-used-to-be most powerfull nation......the price america is paying, and will continue to pay for a long time, is to high and the americans should wake up....... obama is the good start for the big change, McCain is to much war minded and to much bush oriented to give serenity to americans and the rest of the world. |
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| TB |
November 4th, 2008 2:59 am ET Ann Dunham was born in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas while her father was in the US army . |
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| DANAH |
November 4th, 2008 3:18 am ET Obama will be our next president I strongly believe this, He is For the People And He Is That Fresh Breath of Air We Need To Revive this Great Country OBAMA`08 ALL THE WAY MESSIN WIT MC CAIN YU WILL HAVE SUM DRAMA SO VOTE OBAMA "CHANGE IS GOOD" |
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| Hussein |
November 4th, 2008 3:20 am ET It's over. Sen. Hillary Clinton was a far more formidable opponent than McCain. It will be a landslide... |
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| shrink |
November 4th, 2008 3:29 am ET Thanks for the analysis, David. If Obama's governance is anywhere near as effective as his campaign, the country will be well served. Let's hope so. |
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| J.V.Hodgson |
November 4th, 2008 3:37 am ET Very frankly speaking, whichever party wins both need not only to win the electoral college but also a firm and manageable majority in the Senate and House as well. |
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| dan cucich |
November 4th, 2008 3:46 am ET President Bush ran as a compassionate conservative,(read: moderate conservative) but he turned aroud and governed as a far right ideologue-afetr losing the popular vte in 2000. Let's also remember that the republican senate majority leader, Bill Frist, threatened to change the senate rules to abolish the fillibuster That means the majority party does not really need a filibuster proof majority: they can simply change the Senate rules to abolish the filibuster and pass what they please by simple majority votes-if Harry Reid has the guts to give the republicans a taste of their own medicine. I hope the democrats remember how the republicans ran roughshod over them the last 12 years, I also hope Obama reinstates the fairness doctrine and reins in dan cucich |
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| Brian |
November 4th, 2008 3:55 am ET Melinda, a psychic would not by definition make a prediction because if they actually existed they would just tell you the future. A prediction is just an educated guess based on evidence and remember you probably make several hundred small predictions every day that you just don't think about, they just go by a different name "Reason". If I asked you who do you think will win, what would you say? Remember according to your logic if you give any answer at all then you're in the same boat that you are putting David. Also don't confuse conversation with anyone deciding the election, you're right only voting does that. This is just political discussion and you're making yourself sound foolish. Please believe me, I am just trying to help. |
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| Michael |
November 4th, 2008 5:25 am ET As a young black kid growing up in Texas during the sixties I saw many horrific things. I experienced cross burning in the outfield of our High School Baseball Games. Watched kids like me being harassed and jailed for throwing rocks near a school. Saw kids from my neighborhood dragged from their homes without warrants or probable cause, beatened, jailed an accused of committing crimes they did not commit because Officers were bored. I saw a young black man beaten, and dragged from the back of a car by his feet until most of the flesh from his bones was removed just because he walked in a white neighborhood. Blacks were denied the right to vote, my mother (Valedictorian of your High School Class) was not allowed to enrolled in State Universities in Texas, watched my father work in the same Muffler Shop for 45 years from age 17 to his early death of Asbestos poisoning at age 62 because blacks were not given the opportunity to compete for jobs held by whites and the government did not see the need to regulate or warn workers of the dangers of asbestos used in brakes. Heard stories from my grandmother about tales her grandmother who was a slave told her. Too horrific to repeat.... As tough as it has been for me and people like me, some of us never stopped believing that if we worked hard, played by the rules, loved and cherished our family, helped others while not being judgmental that our time would come. Barack's time has come. He's earned it. He's run the best campaign in recent memory but what makes me most proud of Barack is not that he may win tomorrow but that he did it the right way. Barack has put himself in a position to win the presidency without resorting to personal attacks, cheap political tricks or tactics aimed at dissecting and dividing our country along racial, regional, religious or cultural lines. Whatever you may think of Barack, you have to admit to yourself that he did it the right way. Tomorrow can be historic, you will remember this day for the rest of your lives with he wins... |
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| KG |
November 4th, 2008 5:26 am ET MelindaCharlotte, You are forgetting that those pundits are also voters as well and since they are seen on CNN, Fox, and MSNBC almost everyday their opinions carry a lot of weight with their audience. Last I heard is that David Gergen is non-partisan and he's served with Republicans and Democrats in the White House. His opinions are more objective and unbiased then Bay Buchanan or Roland Martin. What he says is true. Obama is still leading but John McCain is catching up. If you look at the how much money Obama has raised for his campaign (which came mostly from small donations by supporters.) and saw his rallies, you could see that there are more people wanting Obama in the presidency. I do believe that this race will be very close so we really don't know if Obama will become the President-elect or McCain. If you'll recall,t these pundits were asked to make a prediction and they are going by what they see in the polls and the response to both campaigns by the public. You're reacting emotionally because you like the McCain/Palin ticket and David is not gushing over them like Cindy from Ga would want him to. Even Ed Rollins, the Republican pundit, agrees that Obama could very well be the next president. |
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| Mark Burns |
November 4th, 2008 5:43 am ET I'm sure that the American people will sleep much better at night knowing that President Obama is running the country. I'm sure his grandmother will be watching down on him as he wins today. |
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| Gene Penszynski from Vermont |
November 4th, 2008 6:22 am ET Well all the nonesense speculation is about to be put to the test. My prediction Obama wins in a lanslide !. Once again America on the brink of a monumental disaster has saved itself. God Bless the USA ! |
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| Mike Lahey |
November 4th, 2008 6:23 am ET It doesn't deserve a response because the logic is cracked, but those who question Obama's being a citizen need to remember that McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Not that there's anything wrong with that...either. |
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| Mark |
November 4th, 2008 6:48 am ET Very good article David. I have always listened to your commentary simply because you have been on both sides, which is a unique perspective. For all of those whiny Repubs.......get over it. If McCain was up in the polls you would not be on these blogs blaming the media and false polling. You would tell the Dems to stop complaining. Americans, nay, human beings, need to stop allowing themselves to be brainwashed (this is for Dems and Repubs). Do your own homework instead of listening to overly biased commercials, websites, and media types. I have read too many blogs where writers are just spitting back the rhetoric they've been spoon fed. It's ridiculous people. Lastly, to the Repubs who really have done their homework and think the country is going into the tank amidst a Dem "windfall", might I suggest taking some of Cindy McCain's DADDY's money, buy an island (we'll call it Loser's Island) and live there for the next four years under the current "rich getting richer" tax plan. BTW......I am a registered Indie, just tired of self-serving, egotistical, crybaby attitudes. |
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| Mike Thomas |
November 4th, 2008 6:57 am ET David: |
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| Chris Ohrstrom |
November 4th, 2008 7:14 am ET Your analysis is spot on. Unfortunately hubris is not only a perogative of the right. Bin Laden brought down the empire with a small cadre and a simple, brilliant plan. The America we will see in the next ten years will resemble the Britain of Harold Wilson rather than the America of the post war era, a country that refuses to work and nourishes itself on nostalgia of the lost empire. The problem is ultimately that Americans now lack character and grit. They talk a good game but in the end they want lots of benefits without sacrifice. They are fat deer hunters, wearing paramilitary camo and waving around semi automatic weapons from atop 4 wheelers and pretending to be real hunters. If America could just convince the rest of the world to get into a huge war and destroy all their infrastructure, it could be king of the hill again. If I was not subject to US taxation for the next 10 years even if I renounce my citizenship, I would be out of here and into a country with a future. |
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| Alex, Florida |
November 4th, 2008 7:32 am ET I always stop and listen when David Gergen has an opinion to offer |
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| beverly |
November 4th, 2008 7:32 am ET Mc Cain has been playing the Rev Wright commercial here for the past 4 days non-stop every half hour If the voters vote for Mc Cain because of this it will be ashame. Mc Cain put himself before his country along with the media. |
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| Francis |
November 4th, 2008 7:41 am ET My Prediction |
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