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May 5, 2008
If all goes according to plan, Clinton and Obama win tomorrow
Posted: 12:30 PM ET

Roland S. Martin
360 Contributor
www.rolandsmartin.comLet’s get this out now before the spin doctors for Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama go at it: if all goes according to plan on Tuesday, both candidates will be able to claim victory.

 

It has been fascinating to see as both campaigns have tried to twist and turn everything, from endorsements to who is leading in the popular vote to the importance of delegates and who can best beat Sen. John McCain in November.

Forget white voters, rural voters, midwestern voters, southern voters, black voters, women voters and men voters, the only thing that really matters on Tuesday are the delegates.

In Indiana, 72 are at stake. In North Carolina, it’s 115.

For all the talk about Obama’s problem with white working class voters, Clinton has an equally difficult time with black voters. For all the talk about Clinton’s problem with young voters, Obama has an issue with older voters. These are just too damn fine candidates who have a lock on their core constituencies.

If Clinton is able to score a win in Indiana AND North Carolina on Tuesday, this race gets absolutely turned upside down, and the Obama camp will be fending off all kinds of attacks that they are in deep doo-doo. If Clinton loses both states, the clamoring for her to jump out now will grow so loud they’ll be complaining about noise pollution in China.

CLINTON SPIN IF SHE WINS INDIANA - She is able to capture the midwestern, rust belt vote, and Dems need the largely white working class voters in states such as Indiana to win in November.

OBAMA SPIN IF HE WINS NORTH CAROLINA - He does better at attracting independents in a red state, and could potentially put this southern state in play come November, especially if there is a huge black turnout.

But the real issue comes down to delegates. Clinton needs decisive wins to cut into Obama’s lead, and she will also need lots more folks to vote for her to cut that popular vote lead (She knows that Florida and Michigan don’t count, so trying to lump them into her vote total is a joke. And this also prevents the Obama folks from trying to count all the caucus voters, which aren’t reflective in who actually won the states).

If this game comes down to delegates, North Carolina is the big enchilada. With 43 more delegates than Indiana, it is simply the bigger prize. My media colleagues can try to twist it anyway possible, but if the person who wins captures more delegates - 2,025 to be exact - then North Carolina has to mean more. That favors Obama, who is up in the polls, but Clinton has closed the gap.

For Clinton, an Indiana win is more psychological, and she’s up slightly in the state.

Now, what will both states mean for the Democrats in November? Not a thing. President George W. Bush beat Sen. John Kerry by 510,000 votes in Indiana, and beat him by 435,000 votes in North Carolina.

Unless Democrats cause a major flip in the state, these two won’t be in play, anyway, unlike Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Arizona, Arkansas and West Virginia and others.

149 Comments
Filed under: Barack Obama •  Hillary Clinton •  Raw Politics •  Roland S. Martin
149 Comments
Cindy   May 5th, 2008 12:43 pm ET

Roland,
So true…couldn’t have said it better myself. It really doesn’t matter how the pundits or candidates spin this thing. All that matters is the delegate vote and how close Hillary can get hers back to Obama’s. If she loses N.C. which I think she will then she really doesn’t have a shot at getting much closer to him unless she wins all the rest of the primaries hands down and that’s not plausible at all.

As far as the general election goes let’s face it the states that Obama is winning now ALWAYS votes Republican in the end. So if Obama wins the nod to run in the general election IMO his chances fall way short of what Hillary could do. Wonder if that could play a role in the thinking of the superdelegates?

Mike in NYC   May 5th, 2008 12:52 pm ET

“OBAMA SPIN IF HE WINS NORTH CAROLINA …”

He will, for cripes’ sake. It’s the margin that matters. He needs double digits.

“For all the talk about Obama’s problem with white working class voters, Clinton has an equally difficult time with black voters.”

There are a lot more of the former than the latter in the nation as a whole.

Should Clinton ultimately prevail, how many AA’s will vote for McCain? Certainly, some will stay home, but you’ll have a lot more Clintonistas jumping ship if BO gets the nom.

American Patriot   May 5th, 2008 12:53 pm ET

Too many real lies & smoke sceens with Clintons.; also too much taking for granted the public will beleive whatever just because it came from them. They’ve proven too many times that they’ll sell the public out for personal gain & then lie about it which suggests to me they have a low opinion of the average Joe & Jane. The country does need change that is inclusive & forward moving for tne 21st century.Other countries are beating us @ the games of the old political machine. We nee to strengthen internally with a fresh but firm approach. Obama !! TogetherWE Stand , Divided we fall….furthur.
Now is the time !!!!

P in Birmingham Al.   May 5th, 2008 1:05 pm ET

Let’s get real.
Hillary had picked 8 Bells to win but Big Brown won….This a clear omen to her own political demise and Barack’s impending victory.

L. Johnson   May 5th, 2008 1:13 pm ET

Have the American people forgotten all the bad things that happened during the Clinton presidentcy? For i.e., paid off pardons, Monica, impeachment, etc.

Why doesn’t anyone ask Hillary who is going to take care of the interns when Hillary is away. The American people must have a short memory. Hillary just goes around questions and never quite answers them completely. If I had a daughter working as an intern I would have to make her quit. I don’t trust Bill or Hillary. She is not a victim, she has known about all of Bill’s extra marital affairs.

Michelle   May 5th, 2008 1:15 pm ET

Roland you are so right. Both sides will claim victory if there
is a split decision in this political drama. The only shocker
would be if either candidate wins both Indiana and North
Carolina. Then the talk will be about how the pollsters got
it wrong again.

Tammy From New York   May 5th, 2008 1:18 pm ET

I hope Indiana and North Carolina Vote For Sen. Obama. He’s a honest candidate thats willing to tell voters the truth. Hillary Clinton’s gas tax is a nice idea but I believe she knew that President Bush would not sign a bill. Hillary Clinton is running on experience and that experience should have shown above this gas scheme of John Mccains who admiitedly said he doen’t know as much as he should about the economy. No economist or expert has said this is a good idea. There are no solutions beside using less gas to reduce price. Sen. Obama was very clear on this and Sen. Clinton was pandering false ideas and false hopes. Beside it’s May when was this gas holiday really going to be in effect. We have a choice to continue playing these polictical games that only get the wrong people into office. We need a leader that is willing to tell us the truth about the situations were facing. The real solution is long term solutions and we need to understand it theres really nothing else that can be done with Bush in the White House. Hillary Clinton is making purposals as if she was in the White House but she’s not this gas holiday is not going to pass through congress because everybody is against it from the house speaker Nancy Pelosi to Hillary Clinton own Cheif strategist. Lets Go Indian and North Carolina OBAMA 08

ELC   May 5th, 2008 1:38 pm ET

Roland….. As always, balanced, insightful, and actionable. I can not wait to see you with your own prime time slot on CNN. Lou Dobbs watch out!!

lewc   May 5th, 2008 1:43 pm ET

Thanks Roland for your unbiased view (as a CNN contributor) of the Real Deal. Just as you said, both sides will spin, spin, spin just as in the past. I guess some of it is enhancing CNN’s ratings, so they actually enjoy the hype. But the truth is, each time they push or support one spin more than the other it tears more rips into the Dem. party.

We must UNITE in order to defeat the Republicans in November!!!

The outcome of the primaries in IN and NC will be a reflection of the voice of the majority (of popular votes), not which sniper fire story or Rev. Wright speech is aired.

All is just campaign and media spin @ it’s finest.

Obama ‘08 !!!

Dave   May 5th, 2008 1:43 pm ET

From those that see Hilary conduct her official duties, she is very aloft, without much interest in speaking with the average person. Her campaign appearances are staged and don’t reflect the person who is very professional and business like, but lacks charisma and people skills. As far as being Commander in Chief, since when has Hilary been known to be a friend of the military?

James, PA   May 5th, 2008 1:45 pm ET

If Obama wins NC, this means that he won the big prize of the day. Hillary only has a slight lead in Indiana.

Jane   May 5th, 2008 1:45 pm ET

The only race that counts is Nov. It is obvious that Obama has the African American voters but in Nov if he is not running Hillary will pick those votes up with very little effort. Had she been running now and not against an African American she WOULD have their votes as we speak. On the other hand the white working man will not go to Obama because they don’t trust him and he has put his nose up to them. Next Obama has 0 Expreince and our country is in to much turmoil to try to teach someone how to run this country. IF he was smart he would consider running as VP learn what he needs to get the confidence of the American people which will give time to prove himself and let Rev Wright, Lapel pin, Michelle not being proud of the country, bitter comment be in past. My biggest fear is if Obama runs in 2008 there will be NO way he will beat McCain and our country can’t go through another 4 years of Bush. The big thing is most of Obama supporters have already said the would vote for Hillary but most of her supporters have said they WON”T vote for Obama

timming   May 5th, 2008 1:49 pm ET

It is now well established that the republican party prefer to withstand Senator Clinton because of her extraneous baggage than Senator Obama who the have little information on. This is why the republican conservative radio is urging its members to vote for Clinton.
In addition, the frenzied cable-news is playing double standards. They are more prone to broadcasting favorable news on Clinton and negative news on Obama.

I hope that the super delegates are aware of the republican strategies, and Clinton’s hypocrisy.

tom   May 5th, 2008 1:49 pm ET

Let Clinton win IN and Obama win NC - Great for the GOP !!!!
Keep it going

Denice, PA   May 5th, 2008 1:51 pm ET

Finally, just a straight forward look at what is really the situation for tomorrow’s primaries. I am tired of so much of the media focusing on Indiana which has fewer delegates. This race is still about the delegate count. Hopefully, a fair approach to seating FL and MI will occur soon.

David   May 5th, 2008 1:52 pm ET

Sooooooooooo….what your saying is I (we) have to listen to more bs from Clinton because she can’t face defeat. Honestly are the people that vote that stupid to think or believe a “gas tax holiday” will work or actually really save anyone anything??

Wake up people…by the time you believe this story and vote for Clinton only to find out that it was a ruse if nothing more then a flat out lie it will be to late to change your vote.

By the way good article Roland

JC   May 5th, 2008 1:53 pm ET

Hillary Clinton shows the passion to be President that Obama sorely lacks; Obama (eg: Tony Dungy) will get the pledge delegates and super delegates that Hillary quite possibly would have gotten if she had gotten out of the gate quicker; the democrats will be questioning their decison of Obama all fall; after the horrid tenure of Bush, the country might just be ready for the inexperienced, meek, weak and unpassionate Obama; however, the country is not ready for Barack and Michelle; the Democratic support for the Obama’s is kind of like Bank of America’s bid for Countrywide; after a while, reality sets in and you start to question your reasoning; throw in Greenspan and Wall Street; the sooner one realizes that no one knows anything about anything, we can begin to get our country back.

Steve   May 5th, 2008 1:54 pm ET

Keep the Political Donkeys kicking each other -

McCain in ‘08 - He will be different then Cowboy Bush

buckeyegirl   May 5th, 2008 1:55 pm ET

I am from Ohio and am so ashamed of our state and the surrounding ones. I am from the “blue collar” line of voters that the press keeps printing and saying…why can’t Barack win these voters? No one will just say it. I have nephews that work in factories here and a brother in Indiana. They flat out tell me they will not vote for some n####r to run this country and tell them what to do. Bigotry is alive and well in the US. How long will we keep our attitude? We invade other countries and want to tell them how to unite? Shouldn’t we learn to do it first? How can we teach something we don’t practice? Barack is not elite. He simply doesn’t fit the mold that the simple minded want him to fit into. The press coverage is so biased. Nothing about Hillary’s lies, broken promises in NY, the Peter Paul trial, voting for the war. All about Barack slipping a couple of points in the polls. I would have voted for Hillary if she were the nominee….until. Now she is in the same league as Rove, Cheney, and Bush. I will NOT vote for Hillary regardless. No ethics with her at all.

Johnny Clenance   May 5th, 2008 2:04 pm ET

The media continues to fuel this race between Obama and Clinton .
Your article stated that the upcoming primaries could break the deadlock between Clinton and Obama. May I ask what deadlock? Obama leads in popular vote, has won more states and in excess of 100 pledged delegates. All observers state it is virtually impossible for Clinton to overtake Obama in pledge delegates. So I ask again where is the deadlock. And on the issue of Reverand Wright and how you have pursued this issue. Is there any reason why you have not played any soundbites of John McCain’s pastor referring to the Catholic Church as the great whore of babylon ? Did you conduct a poll and ask the voters how that affects their feelings towards John McCain? And if you haven’t why not ?Why has a poll not been conducted to find out what effect Clinton’s Big Lie about ducking shots in Bosnia affected the voters feelings towards her as a candidate. As far as I am concerned all CNN is doing is following Fox News lead on the Rev. Wright issue.There is no difference between both networks when it comes to the Rev. Wright both networks are milking it to death.

Let me give a few examples of how the media can truly assist us in understanding the outcome of the primaries. How many primaries where Democrats alone are allowed to vote has Obama won? How many primaries where independents can vote has Clinton won ? This is the first time I have seen one candidate leading in excess of 100 delegates and the media states the race is deadlocked . What is deadlocked is the level of biasness between Fox and Cnn pertaining to the reporting of the race.

Ken - Denver   May 5th, 2008 2:22 pm ET

It’s enough to warm the cockels of my republican heart!

Joe in Panama City Beach, FL   May 5th, 2008 2:25 pm ET

I can’t believe that there is so much discussion about the gas tax holiday when NO CANDIDATE has any authority do do anything about it right now — they have not been elected yet!!! ARE we stupid??? Is it a valid argument that Hillary has experience??? She has never been President! I thought her husband was running the country when he was elected President. Are we so stupid to give that EXPERIENCE statement by Hillary any credence? Hillary is some of the same that we have been dealing with for years! Elected official double talk. Say anything to get elected — then do whatever you want to! Don’t we have that tight now with George Bush???? ELECT OBAMA IF YOU WANT THINGS BETTER —– ELECT OBAMA IF YOU CAN STAND THE TRUTH!

Michael, Henderson, Nevada   May 5th, 2008 2:25 pm ET

Its too bad the press was not doing its job. This race is over, its about winning delegates, nothing more. Let’s focusing on the delegate count, and not white, black or the other nonsense that’s been reported. CNN you can do better than FOX noise!!!

Swalker327   May 5th, 2008 2:25 pm ET

Thanks for the interpretation Roland. You are by far the most clear speaking, unbias and truthful voice that I have heard at CNN.

Keep up the wonderful work!

ObamatheUniter   May 5th, 2008 2:27 pm ET

This guy is the only one that makes sense at CNN lately. Hillary cannot win!! IF she wins Indiana, it will be by a slight margin…which means the delegates will be even for her and Obama (that’s a wash). Even if she won big, the delegate count is small compared to North Carolina. IF she won NC, she won’t win big and winning there is almost impossible. Obama will win NC. NC has more delegates and he’ll win by a bigger margin than she can possibly win in Indiana. That means he’ll increase his delegate lead!! Did you hear that? I said he’ll INCREASE his delegate lead. At best they’ll come out of Indiana even, while Obama will win NC by at least 4% and INCREASE HIS LEAD. If they steal this from him, America better prepare themselves for another 24 years of Republican Rule. All the young voters will go back to the sidelines, so will the Black voters, the independents and those who crossed party lines. If he takes NC tomorrow and the Superdelegates don’t come out and support him, then the Democratic party deserves what they get.

The only good thing about this prolonged race is that McCain has to sit and wait. He doesn’t know who to attack. The longer this plays out the less time the Republican machine has to make a focused attack. Right now they’re looking at a moving target.

The MEDIA…*shakes head*…you guys are predictably predictable!! It’s amazing how every primary, you guys scream “IT’S DEAD EVEN!” Corporate control media has done irreparable harm to this country. You set the agenda and you set it to maximize your ratings. This race hasn’t been even since NH…Obama clearly has ran the better campaign and has suffered for taking the high road. This country doesn’t deserve this man. We’re too dumb, too stupid and too near-sighted to grasp the opportunity that we’re blessed with.

When IRAN has any kind of platform to go to the UN and complain about threats that a PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE makes, and actually garners sympathy; THAT SAYS A LOT. Hillary is a smart woman. I would never underestimate her. She’s smart enough to know how many stupid people are in this country. She’s smart enough to understand what it takes to make the puppets dance and what it takes to make the sheep follow.

HILLARY WILL NEVER BE PRESIDENT!! Even if Barrack is robbed!! See they have to fabricate things and exaggerate non-issues to get at Obama. They have to put effort into making him divisive. Hillary’s presence alone is enough to devide people.

heartlight 3, Maui, HI   May 5th, 2008 2:28 pm ET

I don’t understand why everyone keeps saying that because the Republicans won a state in 2004 that means the Democrats can’t win it this year. My understanding is that there has been a huge increase in registered Democrats this year. Provided this horrendous campaign does not cause half of them to stay home, shouldn’t the increase in the number of Democrats voting cause some of those states to go to the Democrats? Especially if a lot of Republicans stay home because they don’t like their candidate.

LeEura   May 5th, 2008 2:38 pm ET

Thank you Roland for putting it out there like that. Hopefully everyone will understand…

Obama 08

Ron Feuer   May 5th, 2008 2:39 pm ET

In regards to H. Clinton’s remarks about using nukes against Iran should they nuke Israel, it is a prime concern that all voters should heed with this remark before pushing the vote key tomorrow in North Carolina and Indiana. Clinton has said that she used the correct language in stating the term “obliterate.” She is on the mark with this word. The US has been too soft for much of the past fifty years in using its resources in wars. Since the end of WWII in 1945, our country has literally gotten to fat, lazy, and stupid when it comes to ending threats by silly countries that we would have regarded as third world countries until only recently. We have contributed too much to these Arab countries as far as making them fat, rich, and disrespectful of our great nation. Lord Byron said about the year 1825, that wealth makes cowards of us all. This statement is TRUE, especially of our country in 2008. Now, other countires who were very respectful of us due largely to fear in the past see us as whimps. They are correct. We have succumbed to wealth in this country, and other countries do not like us because they view us as largely a spoiled lot. They are correct. And Hillary said it correctly when she mentioned obliteration of this bastardly country of Iran. We need to say to hell with Iran and not do as Obama has intentions of doing…his simply tightening screws on Iran with trade sanctions and other stuff, will no longer cut it with them. Iran is entirely too rich and self-sufficient to be afraid of that WEAK form of tough talk of the past…Bush did it and it is not working with Iran…Obama would be the same and with his meeting face to face and talking directly with Achmadinajad…that will be fruitless as well. Ignore Iran with words…you have to step up to the plate with brute force…that is the fundamental nature of these low-life Iranians and ALL that they understand and will listen to…

dee   May 5th, 2008 2:42 pm ET

Martin, you are still a biased journalist. And that really makes me sick!!!

Daniel Simmons   May 5th, 2008 2:46 pm ET

I’ve never really been up to following the political world , but I’ve got to say that it’s really because of Obama. I know that this world needs more compassion from a man like Obama, many might not agree but He is what we need in the White House. They talk about his pastor but in this world in these days something is wrong with everyone’s Pastor. Just not to popular by the press and Media. We need change, We need Obama Right now.

Doug   May 5th, 2008 2:50 pm ET

So the long & short of it is if HC has a small win in Indiana & Barack
does as expected in N.Carolina,. then, up goes the popular vote more in favour of B.Ob……Hillary will be toast because the Supers will start moveing fast to Barac. I am a Canadian an i have registered as a volunteer to make calls for B.Ob. Never since Pierre Elliott Trudeau
have i been so inspired by someone with the incredible gift to bring
the American public together, to move in a strong, prosperous direction for a common purpose. Do not miss this opportunity.
It only comes around once every 50 -100 years !

Manfred Ayuk   May 5th, 2008 3:24 pm ET

It is amazing that CNN keeps on talking about popular vote, knowing fully well that the entire primary is based on delegates and not momentum or popular vote. So why is CNN promoting all this racial divide? Why does CNN keep saying the Obama has only a slight lead in delegates even thought they truly know it is unsummountable? Clinton has a significant lead in Indiana (4 points) and Obama has a narrow lead in North Carolina (9 points). What is CNN’s game plan? Destroy the democratic party for novemver or just play the white card?

Patricia   May 5th, 2008 3:26 pm ET

I am glad you are one up on the spin doctors. It will be interesting to see how they manipulate the statistics to favor their candidate of choice.

I agree that Obama will win North Carolina and that is the bigger piece of pie. Maybe he will win Indiana too, but he is down in the polls (if they mean anything), and usually does lower than the polls show. It would be a pleasant surprise to see him do better than the polls show once as well.

reggina   May 5th, 2008 3:53 pm ET

“Let’s get this out now before the spin doctors “…u r one of those spin doctors!

do u really think viewers and readers are dumb???

cevans, texas   May 5th, 2008 4:00 pm ET

Thank you Mr. Martin for reporting the true facts. I enjoy listening to you. A breath of fresh air to hear both sides of the story. I was wondering what happened to the “Truth and Morals”. There is HOPE!!

Thank GOD!!

OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT!!!

mitchell martin   May 5th, 2008 4:03 pm ET

hillary’s toast.

Ty   May 5th, 2008 4:04 pm ET

Rolad,
Thanks again for your gerat article. But you hit on something very interesting though. While everyone is saying that Barack has problems with the working class white vote. Doesn’t Hillary have MORE a problem attracting the African American vote?

fafa   May 5th, 2008 4:10 pm ET

just like always, you get it. I am becoming a fan of yours.

Brian   May 5th, 2008 4:10 pm ET

Mr. Martin. You are a brilliant man. Everything and I mean EVERYTHING you write is brilliantly written and stated. Don’t you think Clinton should stop with the negative campaigning? I mean honestly, if she thinks she’s so worthy of winning…shouldn’t she just be talking about herself? Obama is doing this and IS winning…talking about what HE will do. Why can’t she?

KEN in NC   May 5th, 2008 4:11 pm ET

I suspect that even if Senator Obama were to win both states, Senator HRC will still make some kind of a case claiming to have won. I am tired and ready for this to end. I think Senator Obama has addressed each issue thrust upon him but the media has refused to let go. Let it go so we can move on.

Mrs.Charletta Washington-Holbert   May 5th, 2008 4:35 pm ET

Thank you Mr. Martin!!!

I love reading your articles and awesome to know that your wife is a minister (you are double blessed!!!!!)

I just wanted to extend the same question that I extended on Tim Russert’s comment blog.

I am a young democrat and sometimes I really feel like our elders in the party are somewhat immature when it comes to choosing what’s best for our country. We have spent far too much precious time on context dealing with sex, race and guilt by association to really frame a solid foundation for undecided voters who are watching. My question being, assuming Barack Obama is the best candidate to bring change to our country, how does he appeal to such medius mindsets to bring about a real change.

Jones   May 5th, 2008 4:35 pm ET

Give us this analysis wens. night and we will believe you. Stop these spins and confusing voters.

cosma   May 5th, 2008 4:35 pm ET

You have weighed all the two candidates, but OBAMA is gonna win all these two states just be my witness

Annie Kate   May 5th, 2008 4:36 pm ET

Roland,

What about other southern states that generally vote Republican in the Presidential elections - Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, etc. Do the Democrats have a good chance of turning them this fall? I live in Alabama and I have got to say I see more republican signs out than Democrat.

I’m looking forward to seeing if your crystal ball is right on who will win what tomorrow night. You are generally spot on with your analysis. I was hoping for double wins for Clinton; at least she is hopefully in a good position to take at least Indiana.

Looking forward to hearing the ongoing analysis tonight and especially tomorrow.

Annie Kate
Birmingham AL

James from Orange County   May 5th, 2008 4:36 pm ET

Wow, what a refreshing article for CNN. Unbiased view of current status with nothing about a reverand or sniper fire. Anyway you guys can keep this up? Sorry, forgot you have to fill airtime and endless questions about irrelevant topics is required.

PS. You lose viewers when you show 24 hours of nonsense on a continuous loop.

LisaC. in Bham   May 5th, 2008 4:40 pm ET

Roland, all the reason to end this thing now, so we can began focusing on winning the presidency.

Hillary is great! But it will be Obama in 08!

Margaret   May 5th, 2008 4:41 pm ET

Spins, twists, biases, turns, manipulation and games. All I can tell you is that this white, female, Christian, Republican is hoping the Democrats get it together so I can vote for Barack Obama. He has been an activist for AIDS education at conservative, Christian churches ( gets NO press), he has been a consistent voice for justice, fairness, respect and hope for change. He understands the extremes of different people and cultures. He is our best bet for international reconciliation, reduced abortion ( read his book) and measurable changes in our land. Post this! I will not vote for Clinton.

Samir   May 5th, 2008 4:43 pm ET

This is a ridiculous arguement. If anyone has taken middle school math, they would know that it is nearly impossible for Clinton to win the nomination now. If you use the delegate counter, even if Clinton has more than 55% of the vote in all the remaining states and more than 55% of the superdelegates, she still isn’t going to win. She should give up right now. At least if she stopped now, the Clinton name would still hold its honor. All she is doing is hurting our party. Though I’m sure Obama wouldn’t mind having her as vice president to re-unite the party.

John   May 5th, 2008 4:43 pm ET

Nice, fairly balanced article from CNN for a change.

Matt   May 5th, 2008 4:46 pm ET

Iregardless of what you think Martin, and I know you are an Obamocan, If Hillary is not the nominee, Hillary’s supporters will elect McCain in November. So, don’t get too excited as how large or how small the number of delegates are tomorrow. History always repeat s itself like 1968 1nd 1980s. Wait and see!!!!!!!!!!!

Richard Parrilla   May 5th, 2008 4:47 pm ET

Barack Obama could surprise us all when all is said and done. The fact that he in a statistial tie with John McCain in places like Nebraska (45/42) and Texas (47/46), and that even though Mitt Romney himself may have forgiven John McCain, but his voters in states like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota have not, can put a lot of once hardcore red states in play. Hilary Clinton’s strength in the rust belt of Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia are where the population is dwindling. This could leave superdelegates wondering whether she’s good for the future of the Democratic party. The momentum is in the west and the west went Democratic because they saw a new Democratic party rising from the ashes of the Clinton era. The last thing Western Democrats want is a Clinton confirming stereotypical fears from the 90s. Plus whatever blue-collar white vote Obama has lost from this primary season, he’s starting to replace with white-collar moderate Republicans that crossover. The main thing that could really hurt Barack Obama is the rise of a former Democrat, now a Green, Cynthia McKinney. The Democrat should be careful not to neglect the far left, otherwise they may defect to McKinney.

CeeJay   May 5th, 2008 4:48 pm ET

Thank you for being one of the few CNN reporters to report the facts as they are!

Tanya   May 5th, 2008 4:51 pm ET

Indiana and North Carolina….lets get out there and vote OBAMA. The time is now and only now. Make your vote count…there should be no excuse. If Obama won by seven votes Saturday… then your vote matters. I’m sure one of those seven votes wanted to stay home but came out and it made a difference…shoot he won! Stand up for Change. Let’s go people!!! This is it! Let’s do it!

Mary   May 5th, 2008 4:53 pm ET

You got it right Roland! The way ‘I’ look at it, Barack Obama will be the nominee with more delegates’ support, more states won & the most in popular votes. Clinton’s ‘crash & burn’ tactics have made us all realize that she’d rather Barack ‘lose’ to John McCain than win. Someone needs to ask her to ’stop’ once tomorrow’s contests are held. We’re being kept ‘in the mud’ by Clinton & once she’s gone, we can concentrate on McCain. It’s time to go Clinton! Obama in 08!

Tanya   May 5th, 2008 4:53 pm ET

YES WE CAN… OBAMA 08

Chris   May 5th, 2008 4:55 pm ET

Since these two candidates have similar policies and they are running a tight race, it is time for us to carefully look at their character and moral values, in choosing our President. When we were observing their behavior in their campaigns, they could not always hide their true nature from us. They clearly displayed how honest they were, how truthful they were and how genuine they were. It was quite clear whether they were talking just to win the nomination or authentically. Above all, we do not want a President who will find lame excuses to explain a false statement that got exposed. We desperately need a President whom we can trust to lead not only our country, but the whole world.

Gary Chandler in Canada   May 5th, 2008 4:57 pm ET

Roland, what about the youth vote? Is it really true they will ‘play video games in November’ instead of voting in the general election?
It doesn’t make sense to me, but my last name is not Clinton.
Fact is they are turning out in record numbers to vote in a primary where the opponents have mainly the same platform.
One candidate has the drawback of lot much experience and the other is perceived to be dishonest and devious.
So when the future of the country is at stake, and the war in Iraq, why would they suddenly stay away?
The superdelegates should put some weight on this demographic and not be mythified they don’t have any importance. Take every white, blue collar worker to Mars in November and the Youth vote will put Obama over the top!

doug ballantyne   May 5th, 2008 5:13 pm ET

I follow American politics and enjoy watching the arguments and the mud slinging. That is democracy. Americans get the final say by voting for the candidate they feel they can trust. In Canada we vote for the party not the person , so you don’t know what you will end up with after the vote. Our Senate is appointed by the primeminister and the people have no vote in this. So be happy. At least theAmerican public has more power in the voting stage.

Tim in NC   May 5th, 2008 5:15 pm ET

Absolutely true!

You are on the mark Mr. Martin, well done. If more of the CNN contributors/opinionists had you sort clarity on what is really going on and what is important for the condidates given the mechanics of this whole thing, we, as Americans, would be a whole heck of lot better informed than we are now.

The bottom line IS the delegate count, not the popular vote,. Just like when November roles around (as Bush proved in 2000), its the Electoral College that matters, not the voters.

Oh, and if anyone reads this and gets mad, or thinks this system is undemocratic… Yes, it is and you should be. Now do something constructive and try to change it.

Blayze Kohime   May 5th, 2008 5:19 pm ET

Thanks for the realistic look at things. Most people on either side are just so hyped up for their candidate that they believe whatever their side says without really thinking about it.

Tamara Hauser   May 5th, 2008 5:19 pm ET

What is this am hearing about the Clinton camp set up the press conference for Rev. Wright, and people in the Hillary camp is being see in closed rooms with Mr.Wright?

Barbara MacKinnon, Prince Edward Island, Canada   May 5th, 2008 5:20 pm ET

Harvard Graduate.
Rhodes Scholar.
Experienced, knowledgable, passionate, successful, and certainly able - Hillary has lived, breathed and worked hard as a Politician her entire life.
Hillary has ‘EARNED’ her way to the top seat in the White House.
A no-brainer who should become the next President of the United States.

As one of your many fans North of the boarder, please know Hillary we are all so proud of you and will be cheering for you all the way - right up until Victory Day when you become President of the United States. My hope is that when that day finally arrives, the citizens of the United States will rise up and put their trust in the true ‘”Diamond in the Rough”. God Bless America! Go Hillary Go!!

Sincerely,
Barbara MacKinnon
Prince Edward Island
Canada

Tamara Hauser   May 5th, 2008 5:20 pm ET

What is this am hearing about the Clinton camp set up the press conference for Rev. Wright, and people in the Hillary camp is being seen in closed rooms with Mr.Wright?

Kent, Illinois   May 5th, 2008 5:24 pm ET

Pretty amazing how Hillary dropped the whole electoral votes deal and now talks about the popular vote, which in the end doesn’t make a difference if you want to hear straight talk. What makes a difference is delegates and super delegates…………………plain and simple.

Obama will shock all naysayers and win both Indiana and North Carolina………….then super delegates will pour his way.

Nick N.   May 5th, 2008 5:24 pm ET

Prediction:
Obama will win N. carolina by 11% and Indiana by 4%.

Mico   May 5th, 2008 5:24 pm ET

I hope Hillary Clinton wins both states for more reasons than one.
Some are hoping she will quit the race, get out, or give up. Why doesn’t BO get out? Don’t be surprised if Hillary takes all Tuesday.

chris   May 5th, 2008 5:26 pm ET

Thanks for putting that out there Martin-

Ruby Coria, LA., CA.   May 5th, 2008 5:26 pm ET

Roland, Roland, you should’ve just said “unlike the states my boy has won” don’t get to worked out now, the democates are going to send him in Nov. because they don’t want to make you mad, so we’ll see how all the state play on him then.

David slorpe   May 5th, 2008 5:29 pm ET

Hi,

If the gas tax holiday went through, how many jobs would be lost? How much would roads and bridges be effected? How would we pay for the lost revenue?

Is this just politics?

Dave Slorpe

Trent   May 5th, 2008 5:34 pm ET

Mr. Martin,

Your spin is already evident….North Carolina is the more important win according to you.

What’s going to be interesting are the exit polls. I think we both know if the polls are getting this tight and Hillary carries 40-45% of the vote, it will be safe to say that the Rev Wright issue has had an effect on white voters, especially in the South.

I think that even a win in North Carolina for Obama could spell bad news for his campain. et tu?

Neuman   May 5th, 2008 5:38 pm ET

Good job, Martin. This is the kind of practical and analytical journalism that edifies the nation. Not the myopic view of some CNN writers who are bent on tearing the nation down. As far as I am concerned, whether Hillary or Barracks, Dems have to win in November and this is a task that must be accomplished.

Richard   May 5th, 2008 5:41 pm ET

Yes we can!

Obama 08 & 12

Eddie Naperville   May 5th, 2008 5:42 pm ET

Predictions… Obama will win by 8 percent in NC and lose by 3 percent in Indiana. He ends up on top! Not sure if she’ll like that.

Joseph   May 5th, 2008 5:42 pm ET

Roland, about time you start being fair and balanced. I noticed slight change in your commentary on CNN about two weeks ago. The change is for the better. Never get too close or cozy to any politician. You know, Clinton COULD win the nomination. Roland, also stop allowing your fellow CNN “Contritubors” to indirectly question the maturity of black voters. They explicity say that we would not show up to vote, if Obama is not the nominee. For me, that is condescending, if not racist.

Anyway, this nomination process has been good for the country and Democratic party. Obama or Hillary will be stronger for it when we face the warmonger McCain.

Joseph, from Seattle

Tim In sacramento   May 5th, 2008 5:43 pm ET

Thank you. Finally some one in the media sees through all pander and spin from the campaigns.

Hillary argues that she won the big states that Dems need in the general. The only thing wrong with that is these states will likley go dem anyway no matter who the nominee is.

On the other hand Obama has won most of the Red states does that mean according to Hillarys logic he will win those states in a general election. Absolutly not. The difference is all you have voting in these primaries are are affiliates. When it comes to a general election everyone will vote and you cant take a primaries result and spin it to say you will win that state. To my knowledge it hasn’t happened as long as i have been watching presidential elections. Please correct me if im wrong.

Liz/ Buffalo, NY   May 5th, 2008 5:58 pm ET

If people were to really listen to the candidate that makes the most sense, and is the most honest with the voters, and that IS Sen. Barak Obama, then he will win both Indiana and NCarolina tomorrow.
Let’s stop Clinton in her tracks; she’s lying, and she’ll say anything to get the nomination.
How’s the tax holiday, and saving $28 for the summer, really help anyone; it’s not going to happen anyway. So Hillary, stop lying, and get out of the race right now!!!!

Obama ‘08

Lisa   May 5th, 2008 5:59 pm ET

Good post. Of course, Hillary supports will find it outrageous and …..I think the reality needs to set in. We need to get it together and beat the Republicans.

Wayne   May 5th, 2008 5:59 pm ET

This is the first article I’ve read that makes sense.

imel   May 5th, 2008 6:09 pm ET

Many of us will not vote for Obama if Clinton is not the nominee. This article pretends to be neutral; but it is not. Roland Martin is the reason many many of us will not vote for Obama. He, like Obama, is full of himself and his lies about Hillary!!!

Tina T   May 5th, 2008 6:11 pm ET

Roland, I am sure our head will get dizzy with all the spinning from both the campaign and the pundits. That said I have been wondering about the following:
We keep hearing a fatal problem Barack Obama has with ‘small town’, ‘blue-collar’ white voters yet no one seem to examine or at least report a glaring pattern that seems to be practiced by the Clintons that begs a question that needs to be explored. In each primaries where there are significant African American voters expected to participate in voting Hillary’s campaign sends her #1 surrogate, the big man himself, the so-called ‘black president’ a.k.a Bill to campaign heavily on her behalf & court that particular constituency. Cases in point, 2 events are scheduled for Hillary tomorrow & 11 for Bill in NC…who is running for president here? Most importantly, why is Hillary having a hard time courting this particular voting group that she needs to send the ‘black candidate’ to preach to the query as to how his wife is the answer to their prayers for the justice and equality they’ve been struggling for many, many years? Here is a woman who braved the sniper fires, a woman who is ‘unabashed’ and ‘unapologetic’ of her stance to ‘obliterate’ any presumed enemy but is calculated & reserved when it comes to campaigning heavily and drawing a pretty significant portion of the democratic constituency, the African Americans. Why so? Has she cede her capabilities with them to Barack & her husband? If so, if she becomes a president, how can she be a champion to their plight when she can’t even convince them to buy into her sell now? No one in the MSM seems to be hammering this point just as much as they are hammering Baracks problem with certain voting groups. I just don’t get it.

penny   May 5th, 2008 6:15 pm ET

Hi Roland,
Never knew that the Midwest is a tough area. They all need reality checks. What happen to the educational system? Or are they just mean naturally?
They seem to be more out of touch than INNER CITY people! The bad thing is they think that is all about them. Let them know that the world has changed. Much of the world tend to be smarter than they are.
Hillary is taking advantage of those people just to get ELECTED..
Shame on her!!! They need to understand that you can change your lifetstyle with education. They just want to remain blue collar workers.

Shell Hari   May 5th, 2008 6:20 pm ET

What is Hillary Clinton’s middle name? Hillary “Negative, Divisive Politics” Clinton? I thought so. Thanks for reminding me.

Also, Hillary “Negative, Divisive Politics” Clinton need to stop crying “Wolf” on the eve of every primary election. We are getting tired, and I would like to remind her that when she really needs us, we will not come to her rescue, and the “Wolf” would kill the sheep in her care. That won’t be a good scene to see.

Ava   May 5th, 2008 6:32 pm ET

Good job. Some people in the media have put to meaning twist on the rules, and you have put it correctly. Thanks for stating the facts.

Supz   May 5th, 2008 6:36 pm ET

Clinton will see two MAJOR wins tomorrow. What that means come November is a different story because; we’re in for a huge circus.

valerie   May 5th, 2008 6:40 pm ET

I know that obama will win north carolina but I hope he will surprise us and win indiana too that would be whats needed for hilary to surrander but either way I will vote for either one but I like obama a little better. I will NEVER NEVER NEVER vote for MCSAME I want things to change not to stay the same for us working class people

Kelvin   May 5th, 2008 6:41 pm ET

It will be interesting to see tomorrow how Hillary’s camp tries to spin the results, no matter what the outcome. I say Hillary because she is guilty of going negative and lacks in all measures since super Tuesday when the unknown Obama beat her. We as a party need to bring this to an end and work on uniting the party for November. There isn’t much difference policy wise from Hillary and Obama but there is sharp contrast to the republicans. I voted for Bush as a republican twice and can not vote republican this year regardless of the message. What upsets me is the way Hillary campaigns and sides with all the war talk of the republican party much like Bush and McSame. Obama has my vote this country needs a change not more war rhetoric!

Clifton   May 5th, 2008 6:46 pm ET

Roland you put the cards on the table with this article. It’s all about delegates in this case, but both camps stand to lose a great deal if things don’t go in their favor. This political game is becoming more and more interesting as the camps spin every win or loss. My question would be, why is the media not talking about the prospects of success in a unified Democratic Party, instead they are hyping up Clinton’s wins in New York, California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as being decisive wins; as many see it, in a united party, there is promise for either nominee in these and other states.

Judy   May 5th, 2008 6:57 pm ET

I do not think both are going to be winners tomorrow. Unfortunately, Obama has presented himself in a dispirited manner to Tim Russet on yesterday’s Sunday talk show. He’s worried and it’s beginning to take it’s toll. The Reverend did his “damage” and working class white men and women will cast their votes accordingly. I hope that I am wrong.

Mal   May 5th, 2008 6:57 pm ET

Clinton is making promises she can’t keep , on gas savings etc. just to get votes. The people who choose not to vote if Obama if he is the nominee are doing so because of his race. When will it stop? If one is a true AMERICAN they should use their vote for the best interest of country period.

dab   May 5th, 2008 6:59 pm ET

Hillary needs to either win the primaries or keep her loses minimal because what will come into play whether people want to accept it or not, will be Michigan and Florida.

If either candidate does not make the count required, which we know they wont, it will force them to be heard. Although these states went early the election process was held fairly and by the law. So whether or not Obama’s name was on ballot does not matter, Hillary’s name was, so unless we are going to say all these citizens are stupid, then those that voted for Hillary clearly wanted her, those that did not wanted Obama or Edwards. Since Edwards is not out of race, give all undecided to Obama and distribute the delegates. This avoids the States or the party from paying for a new primary fro being held. At this point, you will find that Hillary probably is in the lead on delegates and popular votes.

If we are going to be fair to all citizens, we need to allow all votes to be heard and counted for, if not this historical campaign will go down in history and a joke, just like Bush’ victory in Florida taking the election away from Gore.

We need to do the right thing as Americans and demand all to be counted for, its our country and our futures at stake.

Big O   May 5th, 2008 7:01 pm ET

Johnny Clenance- That was just plain dumb. John Hagee is not Sen. McCains Pastor. Please do not try to link the two. That was about as disingenuous as Obama’s dismissal of Rev. Wrong. My great hope is that Florida and Michigan will swing the tide for Sen. McCain in November. After all, the democrats have told us we do not count. Well, count me for McCain. You can have your phony Barack Obama. The man with no spine and a wife that hates “white America.”

enow richard   May 5th, 2008 7:05 pm ET

What are we still waiting for to end this nomination, you guys know what? there is never a day that bush is going to sign in this Gas tax proposed by Clinton , So this is what will happen,
Clinton knows so well that this will not work and when it comes for the time to be approved when it doesn’t go through, she will have to put the blames now on others,
All what we know is that time has passed for your fishy political games to be played, everybody is aware of your Washington games, this time around it has failed you , thanks to our Saviour Obama

Greg in CA   May 5th, 2008 7:11 pm ET

The argument that Clinton is ‘more electable’ than Obama is garbage. Yes, Clinton polls better in OH and FL, and PA. But Obama, polls better in: CO, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NJ, OR, WA, and WI.

If you look at ALL the swing states, it becomes clear that either Clinton or Obama can win the general election.

The faster the democrats settle on a candidate, the better. This election should be a waltz into the White House for any strong democratic candidate, but the continued infighting in the party benefits McCain more than anyone else.

Gale   May 5th, 2008 7:13 pm ET

Mike in NYC - you are correct in your assessment of there being more whites than AA. But be very clear, no democrat has won an election without the AA vote and right about now Hillary has 8%. This is going to be a lose lose situation and I lay it at the feet of Hillary. Somehow, I do not think I am alone in that assessment.

culture   May 5th, 2008 7:13 pm ET

lets put an end to another spin. if obama has more votes in the primaries why would they say hillar will do better in a GE? i she is losing nw how does that translate into victory in Nov.?

Gary Chandler in Canada   May 5th, 2008 7:16 pm ET

(Barbara MacKinnon, Prince Edward Island, Canada May 5th, 2008 5:20 pm ET
Harvard Graduate.
Rhodes Scholar.
From post above)
She was NOT a Rhodes scholar, but now that you said it she will probably put it on her resume.

Jane, NC   May 5th, 2008 7:20 pm ET

Well, your column was almost unbiased, for a change. But by now, only Sen. Obama’s followers read your column. The rest of us know by now that your word is not gospel, and we’re likely to disagree with you.

Janice - OH   May 5th, 2008 7:23 pm ET

Hey, Roland!!! You rock the Blog!!!

Unfortunately though, I feel there’s going to be real serious problems if the rumors I heard on other blog-sites are true:

1) More than 1.1 million voters in the northwest quarter of IN will not be able to vote tomorrow because their registrations were “dropped” (smells pretty scandelous to me & those at blackbox voters.com);

2) Clinton was covered on CNN the entire day today, & NOT the troubling issues & stories that would otherwise ENLIGHTEN tomorrow’s voters;

3) Obama picked up several SD’s today & was not reported ONCE (to inform tomorrow’s voters);

The smear campaigning has gotten so REPUBLICAN that I’m afraid that I’m either going to have to WRITE in Obama on the ballot in November, or not vote at all. Clinton’s smear-spin machine is going to make a victory out of ANY scenario that more voters will be “scared” away from Obama, thus SEVERING the party permanently.

I wish there were more unbiased reporters like you, Cooper, & Cafferty!

Have a great night & HAPPY PRIMARY TOMORROW, IN & NC!!!

Obama - ‘08

culture   May 5th, 2008 7:34 pm ET

by far this is one of the most unbiased blogs i have read. it contains truth to those who are actually following the contest, and have common sense. the spin factor has been used 24/7 since Feb 5 to boost ratings. if you took the time to understand the process, it has been a known fact that obama is going to represent the democratic party. he is winning by the rules that were in place at the outset. the super delegates are bound by the rules thus you see clinton supporters moving to obama’s side because he is winning and will ave the most delegates come June 3rd. the interest of the party must come before personal preferences. if you are truly for the party support the nominee and not the name.

pete   May 5th, 2008 7:35 pm ET

Let’s be perfectly honestly. Obama is inspiration and honest but lacks good experience. He can add to his ticket with a strong VP and cabinet. We have to be honest that the president is much like a coach…w/o good assistants he/she will do nothing.

Hilary is gritty and has more experience. she is also a politician who will tell you anything to get a vote. Bosnia? The gas tax is a perfect example. She knows that it would never pass yet some dopes with minimal IQs will fall for it. Rove proved that a significant number of Americans are just too dumb to understand they are being swindled.

The choice IMO is clear. If Hilary gets lucky she is going to do nothing better than what Obama could do. In fact, I beleive she will do less becuase the republicans will be lining up to oppose anything she does. Obama still has some respectability to make things happen.

I hope this ends soon so our party can unite against McBush.

Mike in NYC   May 5th, 2008 7:39 pm ET

Doug wrote:

“I am a Canadian and I have registered as a volunteer to make calls for B.Ob.”

What a stupid thing to admit. That’s unethical, if not illegal, and you have no business taking part in our political process. Get out.

Manfred Ayuk wrote:

“So why is CNN promoting all this racial divide?”

They’re reporting on it because it exists, despite the fervent attempts of many to wish it away.

Eddie Naperville wrote:

“Obama will win by 8 percent in NC and lose by 3 percent in Indiana. He ends up on top!”

Those kind of results will effectively doom his candidacy.

Mari, Salt Lake City   May 5th, 2008 7:46 pm ET

Roland, I am hoping for a surprise OBAMA WIN! God willing the folks in Indiana and North Carolina will see past Hillary’s pandering and half-truths. Hopefully people in Indiana and NC are just as SICK AND TIRED OF THE POLITICS OF DESTRUCTION!

Perhaps tomorrow people in Indiana & NC, will rise up and STOP THE MADNESS! And reject all the ‘hateful-destructive-fear & hate-mongering ads’!

Perhaps tomorrow, the people of Indiana & NC, will rise up and SAY NO to Hillary who IS just as responsible as is Bush for the war in Iraq that has nearly bankrupted our country!

With ALL her ‘experience’ and ‘good judgement’ SHE VOTED FOR THE WAR! The blood is on her hands.

Please Indiana & NC, THINK…. go beyond pander, beyond the pundits and think for yourselves!

Vote for Sen. Obama! LET’S MOVE ON AND CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF OUR COUNTRY!

Jennifer   May 5th, 2008 7:51 pm ET

Thank you Roland for this unbiased perspective of the candidates and this process. The delegate count has ALWAYS been what mattered in the primaries and now suddenly, just like with Michigan and Florida, Sen. Clinton wants to change the rules and make this about “momentum.” Would she feel the same way if she was in the lead? I don’t think so.

I don’t dislike Sen. Clinton, but I certainly dislike her double talk. And, in my 37 years of experience “as it is in the beginning, so shall it be in the end” If she has stooped to lying, flipping her position on issues and rules, as well as excessively pandering to every demographic that she can just to get votes (chugging back shots and talking tough about guns and Iran like she’s one of the boys) do you really think that she wouldn’t do the same thing once she’s in office? In addition, IF she was the president, the majority of the legislation that she tried to pass would be stuck in gridlock because she is seen as an extremely polarizing figure in Washington.

I am not supporting Barack Obama just because he is Black, but because he is consistent. Yes, he too has made mistakes and like Sen. Clinton has pandered/catered to different voters. But, the Hillary Clinton that worked tirelessly on behalf of women and children when I worked in Washington, D.C., whose autobiography inspired me as a woman and who vehemently opposed the underhanded tactics that Republicans used against her husband when he was running and other Democrats, has changed so drastically and morphed into the kind of person she used to say that she detested. Someone who would stray this far from their “core” beliefs/values for political gain is ten times more scary than someone who supposedly has “less experience” Remember people, Dick Cheney was a part of the more “experienced” team eight years ago and we see how well that worked out - not!

Also, thank you “Buckeyegirl” for speaking the truth. The elephant in the room is that the majority of rural, white, working class voters that are not supporting Sen. Obama would not have supported him no matter he said or did. We’ve come a long way, but we still have miles to go.

Leon   May 5th, 2008 7:53 pm ET

I’ve yet to hear what change Barack has in mind when he becomes president of the United States. Barack is not “above” petty politics as he has gone extremely negative recently. He is also going to have a tough time swaying conservatives / undecideds with his recent ties with Rev. Wright and some anti-American speech made by his wife. Hilary will be able to win big states easily, and is more in touch with conservatives than Obama that may swing the general election her way.

Kristyn A.   May 5th, 2008 7:57 pm ET

Roland, great point. someone mention earlier in the post about Hillary having less of a problem with black voters as Obama has with white voters, so he has a bigger problem. What that person failed to see is that if Hillary is the nominee, blacks will likely stay home which will make a Republican win inevitable. THAT’S HILLARY’S BLACK PROBLEM.

Look, I’m no Hillary fan by any stretch of the imagination. But I’m less of a McCain fan.

We Democrats need to rally behind our candidates now. My dislike for the Republican way is greater than my dislike of Hillary.

I’m a proud Democrat and will support any candidate.

Let’s show those Republicans that we can be united even in the midst of the primary, shall we???

RB   May 5th, 2008 7:58 pm ET

Oh by the way, has anyone noticed HRC’s superdelegate lead is down to 14 or so?

Katie   May 5th, 2008 7:59 pm ET

There is a lot of assumption that AA’s will support HRC if she is the nominee — “white working class don’t trust him”, etc. After this ugly primary I’d rather poke pencils in my eyes than vote for HRC. If she gets the nod from the super-delegates I will either write in BO or leave the box for president blank. That’s a promise!

Sonya Angolemmo   May 5th, 2008 8:00 pm ET

I personally feel that Hillary is just using her last players’ cards in this ever constricting race, and she’s come to the point where she has thrown them all down on the table, anxious to see a win. Do we want a president that will handle serious matters with sheer wit or with reasoning? I would rather trust in a man like Barack Obama, his logic always being concrete, a possible president who will stand solid for America, with reasonable solutions to promote a brighter future.
Bronx, N.Y.

Tone/ From Texas   May 5th, 2008 8:02 pm ET

Hilliary won the majority of hispanic voters in Texas, including winning California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Big States! Come on people, do you think Obama is going to be the next president? NC and Indy better think twice before voting for Obama. This democratic candidate (Obama) lacks experience on every issue. What Obama is trying to do is brainstorm his way to the nomination. Either way the economy is far from getting better. “Lord Help Us”.

clayshawn   May 5th, 2008 8:04 pm ET

Thanks, Roland for this smart commentary. Even though you are an Obama supporter, it is fair and not completely freaked out like most of the above rants. I am really appalled by the snarking and negativity this campaign has caused. It’s really a shame, especially considering how closely alike both Senators’ positions on the issues really are.

Janet -NY   May 5th, 2008 8:23 pm ET

After both candidates speeches in Indiana last night I don’t see how anyone could vote for Hillary. The entire energy in the room changed when Obama spoke and people hung on to every word because he represents HOPE for the American people. I hope people tomorrow remember what the Clintons represent and vote for the man who can make us whole again! Here’s to a victory in Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow!
Obama’08

Suzanne P.   May 5th, 2008 8:26 pm ET

Obama criticizes Clinton for her vote on Iraq (and her judgment) saying that he was against Iraq and had the better judgment from day one. He doesn’t mention that he wasn’t in a position to vote on the Iraq war because he wasn’t a US senator yet at that time. Nor does he tell you that on subsequent votes on Iraq he and Clinton’s voting record are comparable.

Roland, I like your assessment of the current primaries and what can happen if one or the other wins. Thanks for sharing it with us.

Suzanne P
Knoxville TN

Roni   May 5th, 2008 8:28 pm ET

I like this report, Roland. I agree….but I hope for our country’s sake that Hillary wins both states.

Obama cannot be trusted

Obama is soft

Obama is inexperienced

Obama is just a politican, like Hillary….people forget that

Lorenzo   May 5th, 2008 8:33 pm ET

You are right

You are right Roland!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

JP   May 5th, 2008 8:36 pm ET

I think Clinton is a better candidate. If she does not win I am backing McCain.

Doug   May 5th, 2008 8:37 pm ET

Wow, that was so refreshing. Thank you Roland Martin for at least one moment of sane sober analysis from CNN. I know that CNN isn’t really a news channel it’s actually a network that tries to do whatever it can to sell products (TV commercials) which is why The NewsHour on PBS is the last place on TV with actual journalism.

Nicolas-Karl   May 5th, 2008 8:39 pm ET

Hi Roland,

I really enjoy your commentaries and I hope you get more air time on CNN . You are a true rational analyst which is even more impressive for a theology scholar.

Keep up the good work.

Nicolas-Karl Montréal , Canada

Michael   May 5th, 2008 8:40 pm ET

I have to vehemently disagree with Jane’s comment. It’s obvious that she is NOT AA to so assume that Hillary would so quickly and easily pick up the AA vote. I would hate to suggest to you what such a statement implies, but I’ll let that go for now. It is important you understand something though. Without a doubt, if Obama had NOT been running I (since I can’t speak for my race as a whole — no one should) would have voted for Hillary. As a matter of fact, I WAS PLANNING to vote for her until I saw he was a serious contender. I even voted for Bill during both elections (which was the ONLY reason I was voting for her because I knew nothing about her). However, NOW both I and every other AA have had an opportunity to see and hear things we had not before. Sometimes, these elections have a way of revealing a person’s “true colors” — sort of speak. I say that to tell you that, in my opinion and conversations with others, Hillary would, at this point, be NO MORE assured of getting the black vote than Obama would be of getting the blue-collar vote. In fact, I’ll take that a bit further — I think Obama would have a BETTER chance of getting the blue-collar vote than Hillary would of getting the black vote. Why you ask? There’s pride … then there’s the wallet. I’d be the FIRST person to admit that I would rather some of my friends know more about the candidates than the fact that they’re a democrat, but that isn’t often the case. HOWEVER, once they’ve felt insulted and taken for granted … forget about it! That’s how so many of us are feeling right now about the Clintons. On the other hand, the blue-collar voters are more about finances and the belief that Hillary could do a better job of delivering on her promise (a la name recognition) than Obama. However, since there’s only a hair’s worth of difference in their policies and Obama is their last hope to avoiding the tax burden and lack of sufficient health care, lost jobs to NAFTA and a sustained war that’s bleeding the country dry, I think “cooler heads would prevail.” Oh, the “bitter” comment? Insult me because of my economic class? That’s something I can change. Insult me because of my race? That’s something I CAN’T! Which group do you think would be angrier? And you want to talk about BAGGAGE?!? Oh my gosh! The public has (temporarily) FORGOTTEN more about Bill and Hillary than they KNOW about Obama. That’s not even including much of what’s “swirling around” out there right now that the Republicans are JUST WAITING to unload about Hillary. If by some miracle she were to be the nominee, you’d see things dropping out of the sky about her so fast, you’d thing it was a NUDET (nuclear detonation). They are not willing to tip their hand just yet.

Norman   May 5th, 2008 8:43 pm ET

Roland, brilliant piece of writing – you bring truth, reality back to earth but, I must say – I believe that there will be greater voter support for the democratic nominee this time around. Regardless of the outcome, it makes me proud knowing that a majority of the American people are re-engaged to make needed changes in this country – especially the youth. Thank you for telling it like it is.

gary   May 5th, 2008 8:44 pm ET

Some interesting points:

1. The Democrats have zero, nil, null-set {0} chance of winning Indiana in the fall.
2. There has been no discussion of the latin vote as a factor. If Barack had merely split, or come close in the latin american vote, this election would be long over, as Hillary would have lost New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, Nevada, and possibly California. The latino vote is democrat everywhere except FLorida, where it is split. Latinos turned out for Hillary like blacks have for Obama.

The point is, while Hillary is beating Barack in the white, working class demo, much of this base will go for McCain against either Hillary or Barack, however the rest of her core will vote for any Democrat over any Republican, where much of his core will not turn out if he is not the candidate. Hence, since Hillary has lost fair and square, it is best for her to leave.

Mike in NYC   May 5th, 2008 8:45 pm ET

Gale wrote:

“But be very clear, no democrat has won an election without the AA vote and right about now Hillary has 8%.”

Some AA’s will sit out the general election if BO isn’t the nominee, but I think most will still vote to keep McCain out of the White House. There’s also a very good chance of a HRC/BO ticket, if tomorrow goes the way the polls seem to indicate.

Should BO be the nominee, I think that defections of white Democrats to the McCain camp will outweigh any AA advantage BO will bring to the general election.

Bas, Toronto   May 5th, 2008 8:47 pm ET

After the primaries,there would not be unity among Democrats. Just bring back Gore or Edwards and all Democrats will rally around him for victory.

Tone   May 5th, 2008 8:48 pm ET

A vote for hillary is a vote for a contentious convention, people dont understand, dont know or dont care perhaps all three. This thing is not about democrats vs republicans, its about hillary clinton vs everybody else. You have 50% of the Archie Bunker types saying they will never vote for obama and 26% saying they will vote for McCain. You have a great majority of new, young and african american voters saying they wont vote at all nor vote for hillary, what does that spell, it spells doom for the democrats. Partly because of Rev. Wright and partly because of hillary clinton’s kitchen sink, im dragging you down with me campaign tactics.

hillary is more republican than John McCain, McCain it the moderate who can bridge the gap between conservative and moderate republicans and attract independents as well. The only thing hillary can attract is the archie bunkers of the midwest. McCain can win without the black voter, the independent voter, the young voter and the new voter, Hillary cannot without these groups and she’s made it a certainty that Obama cant win either.

Tone   May 5th, 2008 8:57 pm ET

btw, im not scrolling to find the post but to the fool who thinks Hillary will pick up the black vote with no effort, people like you are part of the dan problem because you are out of touch, unless you are black you have no idea and that the media’s treatment of Obama, Rev. Wright, and the black church has left the african american community jaded and i promise you if hillary does get the nomination, she will pay the price of losing the black vote and destroying the democratic party, because, this black man, will change his registration to Independent asap.

Kelly Kanovic   May 5th, 2008 8:57 pm ET

IF anyone thinks this prolonged dem primary is hurting dems, think again. This long, hard fought campaign has kept the dem. candidates in the national news for months….this is all FREE PRESS, and anyone with a t.v. or radio knows the names of the candidates. McCain has barely gotten mentioned. Enthusiasts know every little detail about campaigns, but most folks barely remember the names of candidates. The pundits are certainly tiresome, as if we can’t think for ourselves-but the dem candidates have gotten hundreds of millions in FREE ADVERTISING. That’s an advantage for the dem party come Nov. Besides, if a candidate falters badly in the polls, better now so the s. del. can make the best decision to pick the person most likely to WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION, whomever that might be.

Timber   May 5th, 2008 8:59 pm ET

Why is there never any mention of the fact that Obama will not reach
“2,025 to be exact “? If that is what you need to win then he does not win it ethier! So? then what? He might as well have none as to have 2,024! Should the popular vote then count or what? The dems have really made the process so difficult. Why not just a national primary?!? For God’s sake, it is an embarrassment. WHY has it been made SO complicated?! I would vote for the candidate who would come out and say they will fix it if they become president.

ron   May 5th, 2008 9:09 pm ET

Very disappointed in the media coverage of the Dem. race for nominee. The issues the media choose like Rev. Wright or an Indy driver support of a candidate is a disservice to the readers and listeners they reach. Polls are reported on like they are facts and the numbers have relevance. The media cannot even agree the number of votes a candidate has or the number of pledged delegates, or superdelegates. News is no longer informing the public, but swaying them by the corporate views. This once honored and reliable profession throwing mud to keep ratings. When you talk about the spin doctors do you include CNN. I feel like vomiting every time your reporter steps up to the map and starts to spuing obscure polls numbers the latino voters, the white blue collars voters the black voters, gun toting voters , green car owner voters. Creating crazy polls that have very little relivance on our countries well being

Katherine in Cali   May 5th, 2008 9:14 pm ET

Why isn’t anyone looking at the fact that the Clinton machine has been in operation for 30 years. And, now on Obama’s first time out he is kicking her “b_ _ _!” I mean, come on people! He is running a better campaign with more money, a better and innovative way to raise money and superior staff and volunteer organization, AND HE IS WINNING! Sorry folk, but the Obama machine is superior to Hillary and Bill Clinton without 30 years EXPERIENCE! Just think how great Obama is going to be when he gets 30 years under his belt. WOW!!!!!!!!!!
Katherine Cotati, CA

annjie   May 5th, 2008 9:15 pm ET

roland - most of the news media has been very biased against Hillary, but you roland come in FIRST PLACE for the most biased reporting I have heard in my life time. No one really knows obama and from his book in his own words he is a bigot and a racist. What we do see in the present, he has terrorist friends (Ayres & his wife should be rotting in jail) and the Hamas supports him. Also, he is so stupid that it took him 20 yrs. + 2 days to figure out what is father figure, mentor was saying. He has a wife who hates America (read her thesis). obama has a long list of other really undesireable friends but you never choose to mention that, do you? He has no experience - voting “present” doesn’t count for experience. He is a snob and looks down his nose at mainstream middle class Americans and you probably won’t believe this roland but once you have served your purpose you would be lying under the bus with obama’s white grandmother and wright. Bet you will never have the courage to post this let alone ever question some obama’s friends.

Dana Harris, Bay Area CA   May 5th, 2008 9:20 pm ET

Indiana and North Carolina and Guam are just as important as the other states. I don’t like Hillary’s politics… it is no different then previous politics. I hope Obama will win because I believe he will bring change or at least do everything he can to bring change. Hillary can barely manage her own campaign finances which would explain her views on the gas tax. I did the math on mine. Since I’m lucky enough to only have to fill up every 2 weeks. If my 12 gallon tank was empty each time I would only save $12.96. I could do that by just not going out to eat for a couple days. It’s in all of our best interest to leave that tax for fixing roads and instead re evaluate our driving habits. Her views pretty much contradict her thoughts about limiting global warming. Because of these gas prices we have seen a large increase in Hybrids and energy conservations. I myself plan to get a Hybrid in the near future. Also telling another country you would obliterate them if they attack your ally shows a lot of arrogance to me. How are you going to obliterate an entire country for the mistakes of a government. And like Michael Moore says Obama has never attacked Clinton for her gender, which of course shouldn’t matter, yet the Clinton campaign and even her husband has attacked him over race. That’s not right. And for a person that claims to have so much experience, I find it odd that she would still vote for a war and continue to back it up, up until she decided to run for president and not apologizing for her mistake. I also find it hard to believe she will get rid of nafta seeing how forceful Bill has been in his beliefs. No wonder he wont let any news reporters around him now. He would only screw it up if he had to answer questions. And finally… for all the crap thrown at Obama, he’s still here… the last time Hillary had dirt thrown at her this candidate was the biggest cry baby of all the candidates.

Eleanor   May 5th, 2008 9:20 pm ET

So when Hillary answers that phone at 2 AM, will she say, “obliterate Iran”. Is this what we have ahead?

Toot   May 5th, 2008 9:27 pm ET

Roland,
We know that the spin you are putting on this article is to really say that Obama is the candidate. Be careful of what you are really spending. We all know that come Nov that the game changes. If by chance he is the Democrat nominee than McCain will have a field day with him. He has associated himself with not so “respectable” people and it gets pushed under the carpet. I have to say I went back and read your article a couple of times so as not to misread anything. You as well as the powers to be that are afraid of Hillary Clinton as a female president put spins on this mess. It was not Bill Clinton running for President it is Hillary Clinton!! The race card from Obama’s campaign as well as you has been played over and over until it is sickening.
So he will win the nominee but will he win the election and if so how will he as an unexperienced person come and get the US out of this mayhem it is in. He won’t be able to because he is about “Obama” and his own!!

Janet   May 5th, 2008 9:37 pm ET

In response to jane’s statement concerning the black vote….you should not speculate on what the black community will do…We are more educated and well informed than you would care to give us credit for (not that I am overly concerned what you might think)..There are many who will not vote for Clinton or McCain, myself included, because of the “Audacity” of Barack Obama and the hope of a better America.

JMO   May 5th, 2008 9:38 pm ET

And once again, who did obama pick to win the Kentucky Derby? - no one. I’d much rather have a president who has an opinion than one who votes “present” with no opinion. BTW, bringing up Eight Belles is very rude, crude and shows absolutely no compassion ~ another trait that we must have in a president. Not trying to reduce the gas price by the tax also shows no compassion and is definitely an elitist view. I think obama should bow out of the race gracefully and start supporting Hillary.

william   May 5th, 2008 9:49 pm ET

I’m really sick and tired of all the spinning heads that say Mi.and Fl. didn’t play by the rules. Like this is some game. This is peoples lives and futures in th