No the polls are always on a roller coaster I believe Obama will come out on top and Hilliary need to drop out of the race and get behind Obama If obama was behind I am sure he would drop out and support her.

9 point drop - that is a lot in this race. Polls depend on so many things though that there is no way to know if this is right or not, really. How many polls have we already seen that were absolutely dead wrong?

I think the pundits will be weighing in on this one - that’s what they do for a living. But in the end its speculation and I’m going to hold judgment until all the primaries are done and the delegates counted.

Annie Kate
Birmingham AL

Big deal. You aught to be asking why Hillary is not blowing Obama out since everyone predicted way before now that PA was her state.
The question is why is Obama so close?.

Obama will win by a landslide on tuesday..These Polls means nothing, as they are as biased as the media.

If Mr. Obama is all about Grass ROOTS then let the Grass ROOTS speak!!! Pennsylvania to Kentucky & Oregon are all Americans. Let their voice be heard.

The truth is emerging about Obama and his past.
Of course Obama is helping with his comments.
ABC News stepped up to the plate and asked probing
questions of both candidates. When Obama was
actually forced to answer a question instead of rambling
on with diversions, he did poorly.
Make sure you research Obama.
You will be shocked.

Isn’t that what ABC wanted to happen? Wasn’t it their intent to stick it to Obama? Birds of a feather flock together, right? How could someone who was as involved with the Clintons as George Stephanopoulos have been allowed to co-host a debate? Taking questions from Hannity??? What a farce. Why wasn’t Hillary drilled on her association or her husbands association with the Weather movement? As far as the Gallup poll goes, how can 1,252 people speak for so many? This poll is just another tactic to discourage potential Obama voters. Just like the mess in Ohio with NAFTA here we go again with negative attacks against Obama, days from an important primary. This is so transparent.

Go Obama—-08

Most people do not know what they want in life, who they want to be the president, how their tax dollors are spent, how to find happiness etc. They just live day to day. Likewise the polls depends on the moods of people. We can only rely on polls as much we can rely on moods of the people. It is ever changing. My own opinion is Hillary will win Penna by a narrow margin & obama will lead in the popular vote & delegates. Who will be the nominee? Your guess is as good as mine. In “God we trust”, “God save America” because politicians won’t. God exists? Nobody knows & nobody has seen him. I would rather go to Las Vegas & bet on something, I have a better chance to win.

If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he wins only because he outspends Hillary on ads, and this is like being “in your face” all the time so “you might as well vote for me”. Is just like any commercial.
However, the American people know that commercials are just that, commercials, and once you brought home the advertised “product” disappointment sets it. Obama is no different. He is just a “product” of TV ads, carefully orchestrated speeches, and some think he has a talent to “motivate”. I would call it manipulation, instead.

Thanks again Lanny for standing up for Hillary. I was just about time for somebody to counterbalance the pro Obama bloggs with pro Hillary bloggs.

why would anyone in pennsylvania wanna vote for a person who has a67% untrustworthy target on her head……..
it amazes me……………….
barack obama gets my vote

The point is he’s still ahead of Cllinton but did anybody hear Hillary Clintons speach this morning in Sranton P.A. when she said, ” so while my opponent says one thing and his campaign does another”. It was her on the stump campaigning to fix NAFTA while her cheif strategist was working to pass a NAFTA trade deal with the Columbian government. Besides It was the Clintons who passed Nafta and opened the doors to China which are doing much better than us. Then telling them she’ll never forget them, was she thinking about Pennslyvanians when fighting to pass NAFTA? Then she always like to talk about her childhood in scranton when she was a little girl, then why is she the senator of New York inwhich she never lived until the run for senate. I think Hillary Clinton just think were stupid.

The polls are irrelevent at this point. There is no plausible way for Hillary to become the nominee without a total collapse of the Obama campaign. The only thing she is accomplishing at this point feed the GOP soundbites and commercial scripts. It is time for her to get out while she still has some reputation and focus on being an elder stateswoman of the Senate.

Hillary Clinton is telling the people in Scranton P.A. they can count on her. Where was she when their factories and Steel plants were closing down? Ohh I forgot her and Bill were busy making millions giving speeches and writting books about the NAFTA deal they passed. Isn’t funny, Hillary going to Pennslyvania asking for their vote after passing Nafta is like asking someone you stole money from and turn around and ask a favor of them. Thats what I call Hipocracy.

Hillary Clinton has shamed herself and her party….

NEWS FLASH:

SHE HAS ALREADY LOST…

Barack Obama has already won… Her only chance is to destroy him and she has tried but Barack is more then one man he is a movement of people around the world who want change….

I want Obama to be your next president because i want the world to see the good nation America once was and now can be again,

Australian for change..

I haven’t seen the press covering this but Bill Clinton is hitting just about every small town and city in West Central……..all those places that Obama said were bitter. He was in Somerset on Fri. He’s hit Johnstown, Ebensburg, Altoona (?), and a number of other spots.

Obama seems to be limiting himself to the populations centers of Philly and its suburbs. He seems oblivious to the fact that a great deal of Pa lies west of the Susquehanna river………but that’s a repeat of the Rendell strategy where the current Gov. hit the population centers of Philly and its suburbs and pretty much ignored the rest of the state.

If Obama takes the nomination, the fall election will be a repeat of McCarthy’s “children’s crusade” and John McCain will take the WHite House.

I think people are seeing how he avoids questions by complaining about being asked them…
If he was well known I think he could do that about character based questions… since he isn’t known he should expect them… is whinning reaction to them leaves people nervous about personal views… I know I feel that way.

When people want to know about his affiliations and beliefs on persoanl issues it’s to get a better understanding of the man… which is the first priority… issues are important… but he needs to understand his person is an issue at this point as well… and continuously crying everytime he’s asked about it makes you wonder if he can handle the tough times a president… and if we don’t know until he’s in office… that could be devistating… feel good speech isn’t enough!

The poll drop may reflect the effectiveness of Hillary’s campaigning and the recent debate. This would be a shame given that the recent Pennsylvania “debate” was not a debate. It was an ambush and I think Barack did amazingly well considering what he was up against. The evening was choreographed to help Clinton. Barack was treated condescendingly by the moderators. The only “negative” questions Hillary received were ones that she wanted. She wanted to raise again the question of Barack’s electablity. She wanted a chance to “win back” voters disappointed by the Bosnea story. Her demeanor was smug and very different from previous debates gving one the impression that she was part of the planning and knew exactly the “questions” planned. The camera frequently focused on Chelsea and Clinton supporters during the “debate”. The only commentator at the end was negative about Barrack leaving just the question Hillary wants the superdelegates to worry about. I am not generally one to accept conspiracy theories but this “debate” for me was over the top and I don’t doubt at all Hillary was central in planning its choreography.” It this “debate” is responsible for the change in the polls in Clinton’s favor, it will be a sad day for the democratic party.

Lanny Davis you are obviously of an age where you don’t understand that it is not just Barack Obama who want change from ‘politics as usual’, 81% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Another Clinton administration will just be more of same, better than Bush there is no doubt, but it will be an administration still tied to special interests and lobby groups and once again nothing will be done in Washington. Barack Obama has started a movement that is building across America and it is a movement that cannot be stopped. The status quo only remains for so long and people are ready for a new type of politics. Besides Hillary’s credibility is in the tank. She comes off as insincere, a politician through and through. Can’t you see that we have all had enough of a Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton White House of politics that divert and divide. Barack Obama is the ‘freshness’ that is needed in America and our world today. And to quote what a great leader - Ghandi once said - “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” That is why Barack Obama will be the next President because his is the type of leadership so needed today. Its called the urgency of now. Yes we can.
signed - a white 65 year old grandmother who is proud to be a Barack Obama supporter and see history in the making..

This is a complete joke. Lanny Davis knows full well that the media she implores to concentrate on Obama is the sole reason Hillary is still in the race. Maybe another lapel pin investigation, eh Lanny?

Where are the stories about Penn, Bill Clinton and Columbian trade deals? Oh that’s right, not newsworthy next to a lapel pin controversy. How about the latest leak from Hillary’s camp about contacting the Canadians to downplay Hillary’s sudden dislike of Nafta? Mea culpa, not enough bandwidth for that when Wright’s patriotism must be questioned on a daily basis. How about some review of the Clinton campaign’s inability to manage their funds? Silly me, not really news at all when there is a full page article about what Ayers did when Obama was 8 years old that needs dissemination.

Hillary isall but mathematically eliminated and behind in numbers of states, delegates, and popular votes won; if she was not the wife of a former President we would not even be having this discussion.

Hillary has remained “Dignified and virtually unflappable”?!?!?!? If there is one thing she IS NOT..it is DIGNIFIED!!! Give me a break!

The polls really dont matter… they give a sense of a relieving feeling but they are not accurate.

What is accurate is that Obama has the most delegates, most elected superdelegates and the majority of the popular vote. So critics please tell how will hillary clinton is ahead?! After Penn. its still going to be impossible for hillary clinton to catch up. The media biased reviews of these polls is hillarious! Nobody in the MSM even realize how close this race is going to be. None of the pundits or critics are on the ground in Penn. Basically the media no not what they speak. Tuesday will be a suprise…….

I agree totally with your assessment that the cable news stations are biased toward Obama. And I also agree that Senator Clinton is the stronger candidate to beat John McCain in November. Because the DNC, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, etc. have basically decided that they want Obama, I don’t think they’re looking at the electability factor as closely as they should. She has won the big states and that can’t be ignored. And the fact that the DNC and the Obama campaign did not press for revotes in Michigan and Florida is a big mistake. Voters don’t need to be reminded how critical the state of Florida will be in November.

I really hope Obama wins PA. I have a good feeling that he will. I personally had ENOUGH of the silly season politics that Billary and her supporter do. I was a Hillary fan in the beginning; but Barack is right. It time for CHANGE for the tabloid political tactics of yesterday. I’ve grown to love Obama because it feels good to see and hear my son (who’s a jock) and all his teenage friends talk about Obama, super-delegates, and listen to debates. Thanks to Obama, they are really engaged in this politico process.

Obama has really started a movement; and I pray that it comes to fruition.

Eric

Wonderul article and I have been asking myself the same questions for months now. Why are the headlines always negative towards Hillary. What happened to reporting facts and not distorting the truth. Nice one about interviewing each other. They are so close minded they are using each other to get out one-sided messages in favor of Obama. I think if anyone has been treated unfairly it has been Hillary. She has stood proud and fought through all the negative the media has thrown at her and I can’t even stand to watch the TV anymore so I get my news via the web.

Nice Job!!! Keep trying to make them answer for the one sided treatment. I don’t think any newspaper of media tv site should openly take sides. What happened to reporting factual news in America?

Lenny,
Excellent points you make in your post, however, they will fall on deaf ears when it comes to saying something positive about Senator Clinton on the cable news channels and the blogosphere. Getting them to ask hard questions about Obama won’t be coming anytime soon either. You are virtually the only person who is pointing out the Gallup daily polling increase for Senator Clinton. Ironically Joe Scarbourgh, one of the few pundits who has been halfway fair to Sen. Clinton, did mention it this morning on his show. If you check the CNN and MSNBC’s web pages there is absolutely nothing on the Gallup polling.

The left wing of the Democratic party and the pro-Obama press are going to do whatever they can to make sure Obama is the nominee and it will only spell disaster in November against McCain.

Polls don’t reach many of Obama’s supporters because a lot of them don’t use land lines. Many use the more modern Technologies, Internet, Cell Phones, ect.. So there is no real reflection of his electorial base.

Mr. Davis makes some wonderful points here, and many of us are in the same quandary. The media is so pro-Obama that you may never see this plummet of his popularity in the news. It is unfortunate as Hillary is surging in at least 5 polls, including the Gallup, and not one major media outlet has mentioned it! A crime, in my opinion.

Hillary will likely take PA by 10+ digits on election day. Count on it.
She will also be the Democratic nominee.

Something is terribly wrong with the polls. They are very volatile. People’s perceptions and opinions about candidates are not as volatile as the polls indicate. I don’t believe the polls have deeper and reliable statistical meaning. Thus, most of the predictions of the polls are total failures. The only polls that make sense are the exit polls after the election day. And it’s just impossible to conclude about what tens of millions of people think from polls of one or two thousand people.

Dream on, Edna. Sorry, but he will not prevail in PA.

Now that citizens have had a chance to learn more about Senator Obama, and see beyond his words and speeches, they can make an informed decision about who will best lead. He’s not ready for prime time.

Why does nobody ask why Sen. Clinton can’t close the deal?

Up until last week she kept claiming that Sen. Obama couldn’t win in November (tho’ she suddenly changed that to a “Yes, yes, yes” he can beat Sen. McCain).

But if the question is why can’t Sen. Obama “close the deal” … why does no one ask the same of the person — Sen. Clinton — that he’s leading?

She clearly hasn’t been able to “close the deal” either?

Tell you what Obama…. you lobby and lower the price of gas NOW before being elected and you’ll have my vote. This offer stands to ANY of those still in the running! And I can just about guarantee that if ANY of you candidate lobbied and successfully got the prices down before the election and guaranteed it for at least a year…you’d win a TON of votes! (If fuel prices went down, everything else would cost less too!)

The losers in this entire political process is the media, as the public clearly realizes that the majority of news commentators and writers DO NOT have the public’s best interest as the number 1 priority… instead it is the hunt for the scoop and ratings…. twisting and slanting stories to create mass hysteria and major drama. We are in the age of the “selective” sound-bites and photoshopped images. Do you remember where you laid down your truth that hopefully, you may one day retrieve it?

We the people, by the people and for the people….
At the end of the day, who is the least patriotic of them all?

Obama will win where he need to win and when he need to win. Remember it’s not how many packages you have when you go in the store,but how many you have when you come out. And when you have God on your side, as Obama certainly has, all things are possible, for it’s God who has the power over one’s heart, and can turn it whether so ever he will. And it’s my hope that on April 22, 2008, he turn enough hearts torward Obama that will give him the state of Pennsylvania.

Lanny, Lanny, Lanny. All these word to say what? Your friend deserves a hallelujah chorus because she is even with a candidate she was supposed to beat a long time ago. Maybe your efforts would be better spent raising $ for her lackluster campaign.

The good folks of PA will have their say tomorrow, their vote is better than any poll. I pray that they will put Mrs Clinton’s campaign out of it’s misery, and she can take her “dignified” self back to the Senate.

I will await your Wednesday Blog entry.

Lanny, it really depends on which poll you are looking at. I’ve seen him ahead nationally by double digits and I’ve seen polls that are single digits. You tend to like to point out the ones that give your friend the most advantage even when the numbers you put forth are not consistent with other pollings.

Thank you. The same point was brought up in “Meet The Press”. The truth is, these questions, and a lot tougher questions, will be asked of any president or presidential candidate in the future, and further, Hillary has been answering these questions all along.

Obama gets a pass at every turn; it is time now that he answer the tough questions, and let’s see how he holds up.

Lanny:
Well, I always wondered how the Gallup polls worked. Thanks for the details. Since the race is so tight, there is really not one candidate who stands out ahead of any other in my mind. Consequently, I don’t believe the polls can capture the indecisiveness that the voters may be experiencing. There could there be a lot of flip flopping going on, especially over time. It’s too bad the Gallup polls don’t track why people are voting for a specific candidate or better yet, why they are not. Even if they did, you probably couldn’t trust the results anyways.

I suppose that is why this political season has been so much fun to follow. Keep on blogging!

Jolene, St. Joseph, MI

I just checked the latest Gallup Poll and it is Obama 49% with Clinton 42%. You can go to Gallup and check it out but Lanny must be using older data!

I can’t believe the poor job that the media is doing on educating the public on the Presidential candidates and their plans for the future of the country. We don’t care about the Bosnia or Rev Wright or Bitter or Iran comments that’s being talked about all day, every day on the news. We do care about our failing infrastructure, our failing economy, why our brothers and sisters are dying in Iraq for no reason, why the price of gas and food is skyrocketing, why Earmarks continue to slip through, plans for securing our borders. Yeah, I know it’s considered good TV to show tabloid-type material, but it shouldn’t be the sole focus of the press. After the most recent debate, no press was given about the candidate’s answers on those areas of value. Just their answers about Rev Wright and Bosnia. The press/media is becoming the leading contributor to why there are so many problems with our youth and the direction this country is going. It’s a sad day when I have to monitor my children when they watch the news because I don’t want them to develop bad habits like focusing on the negative aspects of people, gossiping, and overlooking things could be beneficial to their development because the media focuses so much on the negative. I guarantee you that if the media start focusing on the important issues, not the dirty politics, the candidates will change their focus as well. Why don’t you contribute to helping the country and stop dividing the country?

Let’s get it over already. Is anyone else sick of listening to the dems bicker?
Let’s choose a candidate and get behind him/her.
Geez~

I have enjoyed Mr. Davis’s commentaries over the years. He is intelligent, a gentleman, and a voice of reason (most of the time). He undermines his own credibility, however, by suggesting that anything can be interpreted in tracking polls. They are scientifically almost without any value whatsoever. It has become clear to most Americans over the last decade that these polls predict nothing.

Clearly Mr. Davis is letting his loyalty drive him to positions that harm him more than they help the object of his loyalty. He is not the only one. I have seen quite a few familiar faces, Clinton loyalists, who similarly have been driven to extremes of argument over the past three months. I value loyalty but when will these Clinton loyalists consider their debt paid? It is time to move on to a broader view of their place in the political debate. They should repay their debt to the Clintons by doing what is best to promulgate their common political values–stopping the Republican madness of the last eight years–but by doing so with a candidate and a methodology better suited for our current time.

Hillary will probably win P.A slightly but not by enough to keep her in the race. My prediction-after the P.A. primary , super gelegates will be flooding to Obama and force Hillary to drop out of the race by next weekend. Then Hillary will need to figure out how to endorse Obama in a way thats convincing, it should be a sight to behold.

Congratulations Lanny, you’re wordier than me…I don’t know if that’s a compliment…

Lanny writes:
“Will you headline the current apparent decline of Barack Obama’s national Democratic Party strength and the Hillary Clinton surge within the last week alone — or not?”

We can stop reading there.

Lanny, the media’s job is to report the news, not influence it.

When will you guys get it? When “winning” and “the game” becomes then end-all, be-all; you disenfranchise any rational human being with a few brain cells to rub together (there are a few of us out there…).

Give us the facts, talk about the issues. That’s how to get our attention.

I don’t think anyone really knows the answer! Tomorrow night will tell the tale and some will have guessed right and some wrong. The good news is that it will be so close that Hillary will gain next to nothing and can not possibly catch up. By continuing on she will only hurt the party.

Bob
Rome NY

It is not surprising considering the poll that was taken which showed over 50% of the people thought Hillary Clinton was dishonest. We might be in for a real shocker Tuesday in Pennsylvania.

Hillary seems to come through at the end…. she’s done it every time!
I think that the media is SO BUSY pandering to Obama…. that they
never notice what is really going on.

Also…. people LIE! When polled about who are they going to vote for, they lie! Its nobody’s business and so intrusive to be asked such a question. Then all the pundits can sit and scratch their heads….and wonder why they were wrong.. Ha-ha-ha.
It’s been like that for years . It’s a game!

Off late, Mc Cain has started bashing Obama. It’s almost as if he does’nt want to face Obama come November. Poor Obama, he’s being coralled by Bill, Hillary & McCain.

It was the biased media that made Hillary out to be dishonest. will the biased media actually take a deep look at themself and be a little more honest. Now when there little Barry boy might loose They are second guessing themself. Hopefully Penn will give Hillary a 65% win.

Drop in the polls? It depends on what poll you’re looking at and which way the wind is blowing. Now I’m even wondering if it also depends on how much money is out there on the street. Now-a-days it’s easy to buy votes…and buy commentary, I fear.

MSNBC is not pro-Obama, by the way. Thanks for the misleading spin, Lanny.

The fact that Obama is holding up and succeeding against the intense and underhanded combined efforts of Hillary, Bill and Chelsea Clinton is testiment to his staying power and the power of both his brilliant campaign planners and his loyal volunteer base. Obama is not dishing out money to get help on the streets right now because he doesn’t have to pay people to help him…they happily volunteer.

When Obama is nominated he is going to blow McCain out ot the water.

The ABC debate was the first to ask Obama tuff questions. Granted the subjects were about airing his own his own dirty landery, but that was the media’s fault. The raw truth is you never did. You let us down as Americans. You forgot that your job is only to inform. Never Never become the story. My vote is clear. To vote against the forth branch of the goverment. No to being manipulated by an infomercial masked as honest real news. And man it feels real bad to need to say it. Maybe after the contest is over you will get back to what we used to count on but who knows………

Jimmy.

The American public is starting to realize that Obama is slick but does not have much to offer in experience or logical solutions. He is reaching the point that ,despite the media drooling all over him, he simply cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Only those knee jerking liberals who
are looking for easy solutions and a free handout still want to change the best country in the world.

America needs to ask itself: Do we want someone who lies to lead this country? If we really want to change and make that stand as a cry out from us, the people of the United States of America, than we need to pick the only candidate that has the ability to change Washington and is a change.

We have to let the government know that we are tired of the same ole in DC and the only way to do this is to elect the one candidate that everyone ruled out …and look how he leads now. We need this not because he is black or of mixed race or a man…no, we need this because it is a true change from main stream control of our government. We need to make it clear that we will elect whomever is best for us and if this doesn’t work this time we will have to look for a third of fourth party candidate that will put the people first. Obama is this candidate, he is whom we need right now to make this statement and lead us into a prosperous future. He is the underdog that was supposed to be eliminated from contention before the real competition was supposed to start with the same ole participants, business as usual in Washington DC. Well, let’s make it our business and vote for the change we all dream of and hope for and hope it works.

To Australia: YES! YES! YES! You are absolutely right. Every country is hoping for Obama. We all want what his message of hope gives. The Media in the U.S. give their youth a bum wrap - literally ignoring them. Everyone I speak to in Canada is for him. My family and friends in England already think he’s won. If only America realized the hope he offers to them and the world. Vancouver, Canada

If you want to know who’s most capable of winning in Nov., follow the $$. Obama’s got it and Clinton doesn’t. She doesn’t even have enough money to repair the kitchen sink she keeps throwing around.

Lanny,
Hillary is luck to have you as a friend and to help on her campaign. I agree about the media bias against Hillary. Everyone has been so quick to complain about the questions asked of Obama at the last debate,but where is the concern when msnbc and others have bashed Hillary show after show,day after day. I can not stand to watch any more. I think the media has let us all down.
I think Hillary has shown great strength and guts,I watched her on Keith Olbermann tonight and think she did great. Obama only wants to talk to people who adore him,and complains when asked tough questions for once.
I hope and pray Hillary can win this,if Obama is the candidate I just don’t think I could vote for him.

Has anyone stopped to think that the polls might also reflect that voters are just completely tired out by the process? Have we ever seen a nomination process go on this long? I’ve stopped caring who is the nomination - just get the thing over with so you can start going after the real target - the Republicans.

Obama is the only level headed candidate. We do not need another reckless president in the White House like Bush. Clinton’s voting history and comments shows she is just as much for more war in the Middle East just like McCain and Bush. She voted for the Iraq War. She voted again for giving Bush a grean light to attack Iran if he wanted. Now she is wrecklessly adding fuel to a very sensetive situation by her comments about oblitrating Iran. Can we really trust her to bring the troops home or is she like McCain is going to leave them in there for another hundred years?

Obama could not handle an ABC debate credibly. Hilary Clinton for all her faults is smart, and can stand-up to anyone in an debate. Obama is all talk and will be slaughtered by the republicans. He is not prepared. He is just not prepared.

Hope will not save the American economy. Hope will not save our foreign policy. Whether people like to hear it or now, the only person that can get us out of this mess is a woman.