Hillary would be very foolish to pull out no matter what happens. The ’stuff’ is about to hit the fan with Obama. Maybe will have to explain why he voted for big tax breaks for oil companies with the Republicans and only 2 other Dems. Maybe will have to explain his ties to nuclear energy. Maybe will have to explain why his campaign is controlled by lobbyiest even though he says he won’t take their money. Maybe will have to explain why ‘Mr. Clean’ was deeply involved in corrupt Illinois politics.

I started out an Obama fan, but there’s simply too much evidence of same old same old and added to no experience, I’d say Hillary is a much safer bet.

Anything less than an Obama win will be a loss for the democratic party. The negative campaigning will raise to a new level and they will end up destroying each others chances in the fall.

I think that is a fair assessment with #2 the most likely.

I also think that as far as the media blame game goes that the media follows the squeaky wheels. When Bill and Hillary started whining the media focused on their whining which made for more bad press, when the Clinton campaign staffers start bickering the media covers that as they should it is new-worthy.

You can’t blame the media for the last 11 states that is childish.

Now that there are some disturbing reports in the news about Obama including some “unfair”? or unfavorable reports well Obama has to suck it up too. But I don’t see him whining as much as Hillary’s camp seems to be.

I am an Obama supporter and find it difficult to hear the stories about Nafta and Obama’s buying “a strip of land” as negatives right before March 4th. This has given Clinton a last minute surge and some second thoughts about Obama primarily from the undecided’s.
Unfortunately, this may cause a 5% + win in Ohio for Clinton and a .05% victory for Clinton in Texas.
Last minute. It’s a tough business.
Conclusion: I do not want another Bush or Clinton in the White House as there has already been a quarter century of the two families - Bush and Clinton.

GO !!!!! Obama!

Good analysis, I think. But will the “powers that be” put an end to it by the end of April or May IF it looks like Obama has almost enough delegates to put him over the top………BUT Hillary still wants to go on and on and on, dividing the party and making a huge mess for us in the fall? What do you think?

What Bill said hardly matters. Let’s see what the voters say. And the voters in the remaining 16 primary states have a right to be heard, something an early exit by either candidate would betray. It’s a tie. And suggesting one candidate should leave for the good of the party is an old, old, old ploy. I hope nobody buys it this time around. Hillary Clinton is not “far” behind in the delegate count.

Great observations! Isn’t it odd that Florida’s delegates are “in the wind”? Will they be seated?

I really appreciate the breakdown and basically Clinton will still be behind no matter what after today.. You will not beat Obama by 5 points and she will not win all the states.

So let it go Hillary! You will make a nice SECRETARY OF STATE

Bottom line - I learned playing your lovely delegate game is that NEITHER candidate can win by Pledged Delegates alone. Ultimately, the Super-Delegates will have to speak, and speak en masse. That’s even IF HRC wins both Ohio and Texas. She’s still wildly unlikely to catch his 150 Pledged Delegate lead. EVER.
So, ultimately, she’s either got to change the game (MI and FL) or she’s got to convince the SD’s to overturn the mandate of the masses - to reject the unifier (not just by rhetoric…look at the indy/republican votes).
That’s not going to happen. Because if it does, it will come at the permanent cost of Obama’s ‘new majority’ - the indy and republican supporters will cross over hard for McCain. That’s why McCain has been spitting blood at Obama - he’d rather be against Hillary.
Not newsworthy - but the scorecard is that she’s arguably lost already. That 5 point margins aren’t going to change that fact that she’s going to lose in Pledged Delegates. If I did the math right, 20 point margins won’t.

David Gergen
I think your scoring system is correct. I don’t expect a lot of delegate movement. after today , as whoever wins, I don’t anticipate any landslides for either person . 5 or 10 net delegates across 4 primaries is not much .

I do think this fight between Hillary and Obama is getting bloody and another few months of this will render either one, helpless against McCain. When Hillary said She has a lifetime of experience, McCain has a lifetime of experience, Obama has a speech, it sounds like she wants to be McCains VP . She is feeding the Repubicans all the ads they’ll ever need for the fall. I have to say I do resent and dislike intensely this “do anything” to win Hillary has. Some call it fight.. I call it very very selfish and certainly not about any constituent.

Unless Hillary wins BIG by 15 or 20 poiints in both I hope for the sake of the party, someone steps in and forces her to surrender. If she does win big in both then the game resets.

That response by Rocky is Right! Rocky, great job predicting the race. You know what you are talking about. Sad to see that what most think will happen, will not. Hillary wins the Ticket in June. Rocky, good call!
You should be in Political predictions-Excellent Rocky!!!!!!!!

If Hillary takes it all the way to the convention it will not ba damaging to the party. It is only recently that we have had these horribly dull conventions on TV. They used to be interesting. There is no rush. The DNC has to straighten out their mistakes with Florida and Michigan - a lot of people voted and all the nominees were on the Florida ballot. A re-vote would be ridiculous. Perhaps people that didnt vote could vote. The turnout in Florida was respectable.

Both candidates have promised to support the eventual nominee, both are shooting, and being shot at, by McCain who has to contend against them both until the nomination. So no time is being wasted. After the nomination, if the nominee isnt ready to move in for the kill in two months, we picked the wrong nominee.

If the process is ended prematurely - and the difference in delegates and popular vote is NOT “sizable” - there will be a number of hot voters who feel disenfranchised by the Democratic party PTBs. It is Obama who wants this to be finished because he is ahead and cant count on staying there

I admire John Lewis for struggling with his personal ethics vs constituent responsibility. Too bad Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, both weak candidates, still lack solid ethics behind their politics. Their state went for Hillary. So should they.

Marie

Obama has come from 20% down to be the front runner. No one will convince me that the Americans who put Obama in the Illinois senate, the US congress and position he enjoy today against Clintons are stupid.

Yeah, I have gotten nearly sick of Clinton and the games at this point. As a woman in corporate America myself, I understand the challenges Hillary faces but over the last two weeks all I have seen from her is dirty politics. If she truly believed in her experience as the best qualified, why did it come down to whisper campaigns, mysterious photos, phony outrage about a flyer when her campaign has lead the charge with negative tactics and on and on and on. It pits races and genders and religions against each other. I am so sick of that and our country deserves better. I hated it when the republicans did it to win the White House and I hate it now. I really hope this ends tonight because the negative path this has taken has become nearly unpalatable for me. I am loosing confidence in Clinton’s credibility.

What happened to the analysis that said that Clinton not only had to win both, but had to win them big. Even her own people were saying this until they lowered their most recent expectations with their propaganda. She has to win something like 65% of all remaining delegates, and that’s not going to happen.

Hillary Clinton is a good Senator and would make a good President, but not this year.

Hillary please bow out gracefully for your country and your party, and live on for another day.

This is Obama’s third chance to knock her. I like this analysis. It puts things into perspective. I would be curious to know what some analysts think about how Obama is going to win over all the Hillary supporters if he wins. Will moderate democrats be tempted to lean McCain if Obama wins?

I am a Hillary supporter and glad that both of them are in this race. I would add that the margins of winning is important to look at and not just the win itself. She has to win big (5% or more in Ohio) to show some sort of momentum and not a plateau.

Actually I think it is much simpler than this and potentially more important. Obama has been running a streak, has momentem, new voters, etc. thus, the central question is really this: Do the Democrats want to self destruct or not? That is, do the Democrats want to stop this Obama phenomenon and opt for some kind of mess over a clear candidate? That is really the choice given the current situation. Hillary cannot emerge as a clear candidate, but she can clearly confirm that Democrates would rather spend more time running against each other than running against McCain. This seems unfair to Hillary supporters, but isn’t this the net effect? Either Obama pulls this out, or we are stuck in the mud. The stuff in between is simply a wonder over how deep the muck goes.

I’m a professional woman and an avid OBAMA supporter. I agree with Richardson: unless Senator Clinton not only wins both Ohio & Texas but wins them by large margins and gains significant ground on his >150 pledged delegate lead, it’s time for her to bow out gracefully and do what’s right for the democratic party rather than continue to disparage Senator Obama. Clinton’s campaign only focused on high-yield states (while ignoring the rest) which is why she likes to overemphasize their importance. This is a primary, not the general election; earning democratic delegates is what matters now, not winning states. And, an Ohioan delegate doesn’t count any more than a South Carolinian one just because it comes from a “bellwether” state. Whoever becomes the nominee has to pass this first hurdle before skipping ahead to the next contest. At the end of today, she’s still going to be behind in pledged delegates, which, after all, represent the choice of the people.

I think a split is likely, with TX and VT in Obama’s column and Clinton taking OH and RI. If TX goes to Clinton, then things will be interesting, though the caucus is likely to hinge on the Obama critical mass that will be deployed and temper that loss.

I don’t anticipate Clinton gaining from Mar 4, but merely puncturing Obama’s aura of invincibility gained by 11 straight double-digit wins since Super Tuesday may be enough to seize back some momentum, but at what price?

Obama, to his credit, has not gotten into the gutter. For example, he could ask why - in the name of transparency - she hasn’t released her tax returns? What’s she hiding? It’s 3 a.m. - is she working on her taxes?

Clinton’s kitchen sink strategy - at best - may result in winning this nomination (however unlikey), and at worst, losing the election and miring this country in the old politics that got us into the Iraqi ditch in the first place. We can do better.

Your analysis is good but may not go deep enough. The margin by which the delegate race is won must be taken into account.

If the four states’ combined delegate lead is by double digits in Clinton’s favor, she should continue as she will have stopped the Obama momentum and will actually have a fair chance of winning the nomination, as her own momentum will have begun.

If all four states combined produce a singe-digit lead of delegates for Clinton, the race is over. Yes, she will declare victory for whichever states she’s won but, ultimately, she will not win the nomination.

If Obama wins more delegates from the combined four states by any margin, the race is over.

Keep at it Hillary. There are many months until the convention and anything can - and most likely will - happen. This thing is turning around and seems to be heading your way. The chattering class seems to wish for you to go away. I can remember Thomas Dewey refusing to campaign in 1948 as he knew he had the presidency wrapped up. Then, Hello Harry.

As usual, Gergen cuts right through the clutter with a balanced analysis that lays out the real heart of the matter. This is the guideline I’ll be using to evalutate tonight’s results.

As an independent who ended up voting for Obama, I do wonder about the long term impact of the non-stop barrage of ugly “kitchen sink” attacks unleashed by the Clinton campaign throughout this primary season and most ferociously in the last few days.

Imagine how much stronger the ultimate Democratic candidate would have been, whichever one that turns out to be, if Clinton had been able to mount a campaign as graceful, powerful and moving as Obama’s. Instead, her desperation tactics have left Obama wounded and herself tarnished. If the Democrats lose next fall, how much of the blame will be on Clinton’s tactics this winter?

I hope for #2, and I fear #3. If Sen. Clinton stays in beyond the mathematical ability to win this on pledged delegates, she is clearly showing that she puts her own ambitions over the good of the party, and is willing to hurt “her issues” as well as the dem. chances in November. It would have been different had she run a positive campaign like Gov. Huckabee - but her (and her surrogates - Amb. Wilson?!) negative attacks are just providing ammunition for SEn. McCain. I fear the Clintons are proving they want to beat Sen. Obama more than they want to beat Sen. McCain. She might be smart, but not wise…

I would tend to agree that Hillary only gets out if there is a clear and convincing victory for Obama in Texas and Ohio but, maybe not then. I don’t see her giving up unless it is all but certain. If she loses Texas and Ohio, she may be all but mathmatically eliminated but there would still be the possiblity that something significant happens (some dirt that sticks) to trip up the Obama campaign that could swing the remaining states and sway some of the super delegates to switch. Of course there is still the Michigan and Florida delegates that could come back into play were something to make them crucial to the outcome and I am sure she hasn’t counted them out yet. Unless you bury her deep, Hillary may come out slinging mud and since there is 6 weeks until Pennsylvania, she might have a chance to make something stick that significantly tarnishes that Obama glow. The odds would be long against such a thing but there would be plenty of time for her campaign to throw rocks.

One of Obama’s campaign platform is that he has the ability or is the more suitible democrat that can unified the country, what has he done in the senate to unified the almost do nothing congress? I’m an independent and commend Obama for the success he’s had so far in uniting voters across racial and party lines but these voters will not be in congress. And to get something done, you need to be able to unite both ailse of congress. Has he had any success in doing this in his short term as a senator?

I think this is fair scoring. Thank you, David.

I’m tired of reports that Clinton should get out now. If Obama was in her place right now, I wouldn’t think he should pack it in either even though I am a Clinton supporter. It’s not over yet and both deserve to stay in until it is.

The whole media bias debate has been very interesting. It definitely exists and I witnessed it long before I decided to support Hillary. Glad you guys at AC 360 are talking about it and attempting to make a difference.

Mr. Gergen is a fine man and one of the very, very few political pundits I trust implicitly and take at face value.

Thank you for this handy, common-sense, user-friendly breakdown of the stakes tonight.

That said, my sense is that the nomination will go, sooner of later, to Senator Obama. I only hope the Democratic Party isn’t irreparably damaged in the meantime….

I’d have to say that you are right on the money, David. But I do hope that all the voters have a chance to weigh in and cast their votes before the pundits call the nomination for us.

There are so many ordinary Americans whose voices have not yet been heard. I have to wonder how they feel about having their decisions made for them by people who apparently feel that those votes are superfluous.

CNN
WOULD YOU PLEASE STOP PLAYING MOM TO BLACKS SINCE THE ELECTION YOU HAVE PEOPLE ON THAT SUPPORT BLACKS ONLY AND OBAMA. CNN HAVE A BACK BONE AND STOP BEING BIEST. THE RACE THING IS GETTING OLD WILL STOP WATCHING YOUR PROGRAMS.
JEFFREY