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February 8, 2008
David Gergen: Brokered Convention?
Posted: 11:29 PM ET

Anderson asked a pertinent question tonight: Will the Democrats wind up in a brokered convention? There is a good chance that will happen — unless one of the candidate breaks out before then.

Barack Obama is the one who has the first chance for a breakout: Between now and March 4, there are nine primaries and caucuses on the Democratic side and Barack is favored in most of them. One of the nine where Hillary wants to stop him is Virginia — a state that many have thought would be close.

That’s why it was notable today that a couple of Virginia polls said he has a double digit lead. If he wins big there and elsewhere, he could build up a full head of steam.

For Hillary, the best chance for a breakout comes on March 4 in Ohio and Texas. And she might just do it — like Bill, she is good at comebacks. But I think she has to put some brakes on Obama before then.

That’s why the states coming up in the next couple of weeks are more important than many commentators think — they could have a big impact. Worth watching closely.

- David Gergen, CNN Sr. Political Commentator

34 Comments
Filed under: Barack Obama •  David Gergen •  Hillary Clinton •  Raw Politics
34 Comments
ternov   February 8th, 2008 11:41 pm ET

it is truly ironic that for the first time in many years democrats are rallying behind their (or the last 2 ) candidates, and it still will be able to be used as negative fuel by the right!

Anne Baughman   February 8th, 2008 11:48 pm ET

I have a question. Why is it that Bill Clinton seems to be getting a free ride about his comment to the reporter in Maine to the effect “Everything I’ve said has been factually accurate.” That is vintage, Clinton-speak, contorting the “truth” that got them in trouble during his administration. It goes directly back to “what the definition of is is” and “I did not have sexual relations with that woman (apparently oral sex is not “sexual relations’).” It is so breathtakingly insulting to the American people, and I had hoped that the American people finally had seen that kind of political distortion for what it is — old, tired, so yesterday and demeaning to the American people. I am hopeful that we no longer will tolerate being talked down to and treated like we are stupid. Yes, it is “factually accurate” that Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in 1984. However, we all know what Clinton meant by stating that “truth” don’t we? Enough of the old. Bring in the new. (And I am a 58 year old Caucasian professional working mother of two twenty-something young men. I should be Hillary’s demographic — and I have always admired her greatly, even when it was very unpopular. However, I admire her as a potentially brilliant lifetime lion of the Senate, Secretary of Health and Human Services, President of a University or some other job that requires her to know every damned detail of everything for which she is responsible, for her to “roll up her sleeves and get to work”. As a leader I don’t want a worker bee. I want someone to inspire and lift us up and to set a direction and allow others to become involved and to have buy in. I thought the whole idea of a welfare state had been totally discredited. Why would the country want someone who wants to have all the ideas — every damned detail — be hers and hers alone, someone who thinks everything starts and ends with her. How exhausting. We don’t need to be mothered. We need to be led. I hope and pray that this country is not so needy that it wants someone to take care of their eveyr little need without us having to worry our pretty little heads about it. As a woman I shudder every time Senator Clinton uses the roll up her sleeves line. I think it sets women back decades. Look around you, women are running things everywhere, we are taking over law schools, medical schools, high schools, liberal arts colleges, we are beginning to have plenty of representation in the board rooms. We don’t need to go backward and weep for sympathy or roll up our sleeves and do everything ourselves in order to get ahead. And we do not need to be lied to by OLD time politicians who slice and dice and parse the “truth” never actually “lying” but certainly walking the line and shading the meaning. Enough. Where is the press??

Ryan   February 8th, 2008 11:50 pm ET

I agree that Sen. Clinton needs to put the stops on Sen. Obama before Texas and Ohio. I will take it a step further. If Obama does as expected in the states leading Texas and Ohio, and wins one of those two…he will get the nomination. The remaining states after that other than Pennsylvania will probably either favor him or be a close race. He would be on his way to the pledged delegate lead and I think that will ultimately determine the nomination. I hear the Clinton camp arguing that Obama didn’t win any of the big states that are traditionally Democrat and I don’t understand how that hurts him. Democrats always win New York and New Jersey, let’s be honest. To win the general election you need to fair well in the swing states and red states to take away states from the GOP strangle hold. I think it is obvious that Obama is better suited to do that based on his appeal to Independents and the Obamacans.

DWB Calgary   February 8th, 2008 11:50 pm ET

The Democrates are self destructing again!! Obama’s strong showing must have the Republicans almost peeing their pants in anticipation of the presidential debates when McCain looks across at Obama and says “where were you in 62 ……son and what will you base you decisions on when Russia or China gets tough or when North Korea or Iran threaten a nuclear response?” Obama will be like a rabbit caught in the head lights of an oncoming freight train!!

Dayne   February 8th, 2008 11:56 pm ET

I want to know who makes a better Commander in Cheif, I think Hillary wins hands down

Ryan   February 9th, 2008 12:00 am ET

I am sick and tired of this experience vs. judgement argument. I can’t believe it is even an argument. You can have all the experience in the world, but that doesn’t mean you will make the right choices. I look at the New Endgland Patriots a few years ago when Tom Brady stepped in for Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe had a ton of experience but Brady made better decisions with the ball and lead his team to the first of 3 championships. Brady has some other intangibles that separated him, namely talent and an uncanny ability to lead. Well, both Clinton and Obama have talent, but it is clear to me that only Obama possesses that uncanny ability to lead that our country has been lacking for too long.

Gail Doeppel   February 9th, 2008 12:02 am ET

Hi Anderson
I watch you most evenings and enjoy the comments but I think you guys pick on Bill and Hillary too much. Why doesn’t someone pick on Obama a little bit more ???? I’m a Hillary woman…..I like her Brain Power and Common Sense..
Men have no common sense,,It’s a well known fact, and we need some in the White House for a change…Obama won’t have any and his wife can’t run it !!!!
Let’s have some good words for Hillary…Every good woman has a great man behind them and it makes for a “Winning” combination.
Tell your mom I wear her signature Jeans…..love them !!!!!!!

Ed K.   February 9th, 2008 12:03 am ET

The best case for the republicans is for the Dems to come to convention, have a battle and wind up putting Obama on the chopping block. Republicans keep fanning the Obama fire hoping they wont have to face Hillary. They know she would win by a landslide. Giving the nod to Obama will give the election to the republicans.

Ryan   February 9th, 2008 12:10 am ET

It is audacious to me that someone would propose a mandate on healthcare without fully explaining how it would be enforced. I have checked all of Sen. Clinton’s website info and even attempted unsuccessfully to have that question answered on their blogs. She said on an interview a few days ago that she would garnish peoples wages and that was the last I have heard about it. I just don’t get it, so I will ask all you Clintonites out there to answer that one for me. You claim to have more substance even claiming “Where’s the beef?” about Obama, when obviously you haven’t taken the time to research his positions which are posted like Hillary on the web. So, how do you enforce your healthcare mandate? I want some details. Oh, and another thing..how do you donate 5 million to your campaign and than refuse to release your tax forms until after the campaign? That has shady written all over it. Sorry to be so cynical, but I have been scarred by the scandals of the last Clinton term, and after things like Whitewater, Hillary should be very open with the American people about her finances.

murry   February 9th, 2008 12:12 am ET

David, I really hope it doesn’t come to a brokered convention.
As an Obama supporter I seem to be getting a lot of vitriol from Hillary supporters here and elsewhere. It’s normal to criticize candidates but it’s a bit low to demean supporters.
They imply we’re a bunch of idiots for believing rhetoric, though we are educated. They say we are dreamers, though we tend to have higher income. They liken us to cult followers, though we don’t go to church often. Finally, they accuse us for being caught up in touchy feely emotions, though we tend to be males.
What do I have to say to them? Your PowerPoint bullets don’t reallly impress me. I’m looking at the forest, not the trees.

Lorie Ann   February 9th, 2008 12:16 am ET

Hi David, after all the hoopla of a very tight race, I bet it comes down to a quick retreat by one of the candidates, for the so called good of the party. And I bet it’s not that far down the line. I’m just not sure that the party will let Obama and Clinton get into a punchout battle. But I never, say never…

Lorie Ann, Buellton, Calif.

sm   February 9th, 2008 1:02 am ET

Hi David, Brokered convention would not be great.. but I have the audacity to hope that we end up with Hillary.

Otherwise, we will end up with the centrics shifting to McCain.

Of course, in the contrast between McCain and Obama, GOP will bring up the Muslim middlename/heritage of Obama. GOP does not have to worry about what do the rest of the party think… They just have to dish it out. This really worries me.

The second thing that worries me is if we do end up with Obama, we are in deep trouble bec we cant afford another 4 years of “getting to know” how international politics works.

S. Solomon   February 9th, 2008 1:11 am ET

I just don’t understand these polls that everyone is basing all their predictions on. I have been voting for more than 32 years and I have NEVER ONCE been asked a question for a political poll of any kind! Where do they find these people that they poll? Are they even registered voters or even real people? I have my doubts! I think these polls are completely phony and made up by the media and other outlets. I put no faith in them whatsoever!!!

Vshabazz2   February 9th, 2008 1:13 am ET

David, I am an intelligent, self employed business woman and I know whom I voted for. I voted for Senator Obama, not because we are of the same race, but because I am tired of the same ol same ol nonsense that happens in Washington on a daily bases. Obama is raising more money than Bill and he is bringing out the vote something that McCain nor Hillary will or can do. I will say this I am not going to sit by and let Caucasians take this election away from Obama. If necessary I will vote and spend with the Republican party, as Donna Brazile said, I will drop from the party. It is not right for some old so called wise men who want more money or favors to say what is best for me.

I hope every Obama supporter especially African Americans drop from the party and either vote Republican or don’t vote. Anything to keep Bill and Hillary out of office.

Oh, one more thing, Bill Clinton wasn’t the first white black president, Thomas Jefferson was. He was so named because he gave us (Slaves) the privilege of being three-fifths a person. In doing this he gave the slave masters the right to vote for every slave he owned. Well I am not a slave and I have cast my vote and I don’t want “MASSA” voting for me.

Kathy Koontz   February 9th, 2008 1:31 am ET

I think we will want to set up 16 years in the White House. I believe we are making
Obama viable and we will end up with the dream team w/ Clinton at the top of the ticket and give Obama the experience he needs to have a slam dunk at the end of her 8 years. I think this is why nobody is asking any specifics from Obama and
Hillary can’t open her mouth without the out cry of race. This is getting painful and
I don’t want to see it go to the convention.

kathy, Indiana

Ernesto Mantilla   February 9th, 2008 1:38 am ET

A brokered convention will get all young first time voters upset to a degree that will cost democrats the presidency. Who will take responsibility for this terrible mistake?

Ernesto Mantilla
Los Angeles CA

Jeremy Walls   February 9th, 2008 1:49 am ET

I think everybody needs to educate themselves on the candidates and the people behind their campaign. Poor Obama is going to get screwed in a Brokered convention..The Powerful elite that OWN and control the government and the mass media aka CNN and Fox NEws, wants Hitlary Or McWar to win..therefore one of them will win no matter what…Brokered convention or not.

All while some candidates gets no respect or airtime at all…Example..Congressman Ron Paul..

i’m not even a supporter of Ron Paul and i can tell there is a Media BLACKOUT on the man. Shame on CNN..and BushNews..i mean FoxNews

Ned   February 9th, 2008 1:57 am ET

Do you think Obama will make a good commander & chief? Where would he bring in experience to this Job?

Darren Green   February 9th, 2008 2:14 am ET

David, a brokered convention or not will not matter to the democrats in the long run. Whoever the winning candidate is has more to lose than gain in being elected President.

History will show them in either of two ways; The shmuck who couldn’t turn around the George Bush experiment or he/she will be the greatest President in the history of the USA. I suspect it will be the former.

Congratulations to both Clinton and Obama for carrying on their fight but I just have to say…be careful what you ask for, you might just get it.

On the Repbulican side? Who’s smarter, Mc Cain or Romney? I think Romney will be able to sit this one out and come back with a big I told you so to everyone on both sides. Not a bad spot to be for next time.

This from a very interested Canadian

Laura Elwin, WA   February 9th, 2008 2:30 am ET

Anderson Cooper, I have enjoyed you on CNN. If my commet is deemed inappropriate for posting, I would like to know why and how can an American get a message to the media if not on your blog. I want to believe that even you are out of the loop on some of the reasons and methods being used to take down
Hillary Clinton as the nominee for the Democrate Party, I apologize if I am wrong about you, but I am disappointed in your coverage and the biased reporting and lopsided coverage of your “the best political team on television” who have spun every aspect of this race into a negative for Hillary Clinton. Andrea Mitchell is wicked, Bob Bennett is really sick, Gloria (?) is so biased she is unbelievable.
I am sorry to see you sucked into this kind of reporting. I loved your “keeping them honest”, but really now the media needs a program for keeping them honest. Dan Abrams did a show on biased media coverage. I was shocked to see him stay on the air after his show….MSNBC must have gotten good ratings.
Also, even on CNN you did comment on complaints about the media bias, but then went right on with your biased behaviour….as if you just didn’t get it, which guess you didn’t. By you, I mean all of you.

I am trying to get coverage on C-SPAN. I have worn out the remote shutting off the nasty attack machine and only watch decent people like Tom Brokaw when on.

So Anderson Cooper, you cutie you, start a fresh new show where you give us decent balance reporting….let the political pundits spew off the hateful remarks
at the local pub or coffee shop. Good Luck and hope that you will use your
brains when you vote and not get stampeeded in a movement to wherever.
I want the country to know what direction we are going, how we are going to go about getting there, and I believe Hillary Clinton has the smarts and will work her heart out to give us a better American for ALL Americans.

keira   February 9th, 2008 12:04 pm ET

Hi David, thanks for your experties and the explaination about the brokered convetion. Hopefully it’s not gonna go there. But why Democrats do something and take aciton towards the direction which will lead them to white house in november ? Hey, thanks David always for your presence, Cnn are so lucky to have you.

Terri   February 11th, 2008 12:36 pm ET

There sure is a lot to look at and consider for which canidate can beat McCain in Nov. Should we take lesson from the last election? We had what most considered a very far left liberal on the ticket. John Kerry. He lost. Do we put Obama on the ticket who is considered to be far left in comparison to Hillary? Now granted Bush is more far right than McCain as McCain is very center. Hillary is very Center. When we talk about who can unify Congress do we go to the fringes of each party or to the center? I am an independant voter and I appreciate the center polictician. To me they represent most people. Why……because there is good in each party and bad in each party and center seems to take the best of both. If Hillary is on the ballot in Nov. I will vote for her. If Obama is on the ballot……I doubt I would vote for him. I think the perfect solution for Democrats is a Clinton/Obama Ticket and after 8 years of Hillary we can have 8 years of a much more experienced Obama and hopefully a more humble man because he seems really arrogant which I don’t like.

Larry   February 11th, 2008 1:33 pm ET

Hillary has more “experience”—so did Cheney & Rumsfeld—great….

Kathleen   February 11th, 2008 1:55 pm ET

I understand why Obama is so popular. His speeches give us an idealism we all need. That said, I think we are in trouble if we believe that he can accomplish bipartisan policymaking as he promises to do as President. He criticizes Clinton for lacking this ability and perspective. I do not see how he can do this realistically and it concerns me that people buy into this line. He is romancing us and will be able to unite Congress only to the degree that other President’s have been able to do that. I worry that he is sellling us a bill of goods that he will not be able to deliver. Last evening, watching his speech in Virginia, I was stunned that he had to read a list of proposals (more than likely written for him) from a piece of paper. I don’t need or want a President to inspire me — I want a President who can get the job done and repair this recession we are in.

Tammy   February 11th, 2008 4:42 pm ET

I agree with Keira that democrats need to take some action to ensure a win in November. McCain has already begun the scare tactics previously envoked by the Bush Administration and will continue to do so through the fall election. Unfortunately, people respond more to fear then hope. This will give the Republican’s months to invoke this strategy, while Obama and Clinton will spend time fighting one another. I suspect we will see Clinton pursuing litigation surrounding the Florida delegates, since we know the delegate race will be so close, which will be yet only another distraction for the democractic party.
Although I believe Clinton is probably a better candidate, I believe Obama has a better chance of winning against McCain, so I have decided to vote for Obama in the primary election.

Jen   February 11th, 2008 7:36 pm ET

don’t tell me i support obama because i’m fooled by pretty words. i have 2 degrees, a diverse group of friends, broad values based more on life experience than religious belief and i’m an independent woman who thrives without any outside support.

i don’t think anyone is going to be putting the brakes on obama’s campaign any time soon…why? because he has the money, he has the message, and he has the moral support of devoted supporters like me. YES. WE. CAN.

Gerald Ashton   February 11th, 2008 8:31 pm ET

I keep hoping that someone will ask Hillary:

“What exactly would Bill do if she was elected?”

She has side-stepped this one for months, and it’s time she provided a DETAILED answer. Would he be VP? Cabinet position?

I think that this answer would provide what Americans truly want to know about her.

estella   February 11th, 2008 10:01 pm ET

I continue to be surprised over the hoopla given Obama. He is a politician just like Hillary, except Hillary has subtance, experience and has a record of working in a bipartinship manner.

Felicia   February 11th, 2008 10:50 pm ET

why should we seat the Mi and FL delagates after they didnt follow the rules.

No-one ever says anything about IA we had to move our caucus up and we didn’t know the true date untill about 3weeks before. Then because we moved ours up NH was so close this entire calender is screwed up and if we seat the two states that tried to take center stage what stops all states from holding causus and primarys when ever they choose!!! If we seat those states 2012 will be a mess. No rules to follow why wait?

Bobbie   February 11th, 2008 11:15 pm ET

Should the VOTERS in Florida and Michigan be penalized because the “higher ups” screwed up? NO! The polls were open, so people went and voted. These votes should count. All 3 names were on the Florida ballot and Hillary won. In Michigan, Obama & Edwards took their own names off…..but there is about 45% of the votes that went into an “uncommitted column” . Give those to Barack. Hillary won 55%. It is that simple. You can not unring a bell. The democratic heads opened the polls and the people voted in both states.

I am voting for Hillary. She is older and more experienced. She has been a Senator longer and worked in harmony with Republicans and Democrats.

As far as Bill Clinton’s role if she should become President, I really do not believe she knows at this point. In my opinion, I see him more as a foreign diplomat. I do not believe he will be part of her cabinet.

Bobbie
Ohio

Chuck   February 12th, 2008 12:47 am ET

David…

I don’t think that there will be a brokered convention. Obama may be unstoppable if he continues to win … tomorrow in the “Potomac Primary” he could shore up key support and give him significant momentum into Wisconsin. He continues to show he can win in various regions of the country and among white voters he does extremely well. This is true in more conservative areas of the country where Hillary wouldn’t stand a chance. Electability will become the critical element for an increasing number of voters. If Obama wins Ohio, Hillary would serve the Democratic party best by suspending her campaign. There’s much to accomplish yet for Obama and among them will be to overcome the detractors who have blogged here disparaging his ability to lead or to have coherent, reasonable positions. I’m not an ideological purist and I think there are many out there like me who wants someone who can inspire us as a nation to think about the future with hope and who isn’t afraid to call people to sacrifice for their ideals. I like Hillary in many ways but she can’t win and is a lightening rod — there are many right wingers who will sacrifice their children just to see her lose.

Chuck
California

deb   February 12th, 2008 1:38 am ET

I can’t wait until the next debate (as I really think there should have been more of these) so we could hear Hillary and Obama state their differences and lay out their plans. Hillary usually wins these debates…she never falters with her answers…she’s so brilliant and has more to say than Change and Hope. I don’t know what his plans are. I’m not impressed with rock star momentum…we want experience and someone who can really do the work. What’s he done? Hillary is going to have to hang tough until Texas and Ohio…and I know she will…despite the media hoopla.

Barb   February 12th, 2008 2:43 am ET

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Then Barack Obama should be asked what roll Michelle will play in his administration if it should come to that.

rodney   February 12th, 2008 10:16 am ET

I am a firmly believe that if the democratic nominee is chosen by the superdelegates. It will mean in November the democratic party will lose the election. The american people have had two elections stolen from them and if the DNC doesn’t understand that this turnout of people to vote in the primary is a statement that we want are vote to count and will not except anything less then the person with the most votes wins. That’s the only thing we will accept anything else will cause us to stay home in November. It’s not just me everyone I talk to feels the same way even if it means Mccain is elected president.

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